Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240229 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1029 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry this afternoon with clouds clearing west to east. High pressure brings dry weather Sunday through Monday. Next system brings rain for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1029 PM Saturday... Increased cloud coverage for our northeastern zones as abandoned stratus continues to dissipate and erode as the overnight period wears on. Also modified temperatures and dew points to remain in line with current observations. As of 520 PM Saturday... Temperatures struggled to rise to their anticipated highs this afternoon at the result of lingering stratus hugging the area. Brought hourly temps down a few degrees to account for current conditions and lowered overnight readings as a result of these cooler observations. The rest of the forecast remains on track this evening. As of 200 PM Saturday... Clouds are eroding from the west, generally as expected, though the pace of this erosion the rest of the day is a bit uncertain. The breaking up of clouds should reach the Charleston Metro and CLarksburg by or before sunset, but the mountains likely hang on to at least some broken or overcast cloud cover into the night. Aside from some light rain in the east, occasionally mixed with a bit of snow at higher elevations, precip has largely cleared the area and should continue to wind down the rest of the afternoon. Winds will remain brisk overall, from the northwest and north, with gusts of 15-25 mph expected into the evening. The winds look to calm down for most of the area overnight, but could remain gusty over the higher ridges of the northern mountains into Sunday morning before high pressure building in puts the kibosh on the winds. Sunday should be sunny, dry, and calm. After a fairly raw day today with the cold and breezy conditions, we can expect a cold night tonight, with lows in the 20s for most. Wind chills will bottom out in the single digits above zero for the higher northern ridges, with teens to low 20s wind chills expected in the lowlands. After that, Sunday`s sunny skies will showcase the increasing power of the higher sun angle, with highs into the 50s for the lower elevations and 40s in the mountains. It`ll still be a few degrees below normal for late March for most locations, but will feel nice with the expected sunny and calm weather.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 232 PM Saturday... By Monday, the surface high shifts eastward, with warmer temperatures, and gusty winds taking hold ahead of an approaching system. RH values on Monday will once again dip into the 20s, possibly even the teens in spots, and will be looking at the potential for heightened fire weather concerns once again across the area, particularly after a day of drying on Sunday. Depending on how well fuels are able to dry out, some mountainous locations and perhaps SE downslope areas may be most susceptible to fire weather concerns. Will plan to add a mention in the HWO, and think at least an sps may be warranted for some areas on Monday depending on how conditions shape up. Precipitation returns to the area later Tuesday into Wednesday as another surface low and upper shortwave lifts northeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening southerly winds associated with the system should allow for decent moisture transport into the area, and although system overall looks to be rather quick hitting, it will provide a widespread wetting rain. There could even be a rumble of thunder during the period, particularly depending on timing of system and front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1204 PM Saturday... Frontal boundary associated with the system should be just east of the mountains by late Wednesday night or early Thursday. Beyond Thursday, a southern stream system looks to take hold and gradually move northeast along the east coast. Moisture should largely stay out of our CWA with this feature, but there is some indication that moisture could affect southern/eastern zones. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions until the weekend when there is the potential for a quick hitting shortwave to affect the area. Details remain uncertain, but any moisture/precipitation associated with this feature should be light and quick hitting. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 723 PM Saturday... Clouds continue to clear out at a sluggish pace this evening from west to east, with lowland terminals now returning to VFR thresholds. Mountains will hold onto to sub-VFR ceilings for a few more hours before branching out to round out the weekend on Sunday. High pressure will yield mostly clear skies once lingering stratus erodes off the higher terrain. Winds remain breezy out of the northwest this evening between 15-20kts in most recent observations. Pressure gradient winds should slacken overnight and become lighter on Sunday in response to the aforementioned high. Surface flow begins to veer out of the southeast Sunday evening along the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement of ceilings may vary from forecast tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/24/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR conditions may occur in any areas of heavier rain Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/SL NEAR TERM...FK/MEK SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MEK

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