Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 311938
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR
THE N MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH WHERE MORE OF A SCATTERED
VARIETY IS IN THE CARDS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET...WITH CU
FIELD TO FOLLOW. THIS SETS UP A MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
FLOW...A RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH BEST SHOT AT SEEING A
POPCORN SHRA/TSRA BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. TEMPS LOOK
TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SURPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL
DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
DISSIPATING CU FIELD. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL YIELD
RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT...BRINGING VLIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KBKW.

FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE. LOW END VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH
HEATING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BY END OF TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ANY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF
MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. TIMING OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY A FEW
HOURS FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...30



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