Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 190957
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY 14Z. EXPECT
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND LIGHTER BY 21Z TODAY.

MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAKEN THE FLOW TO LIGHT OR CALM AT NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 10/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.