Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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251
FXUS61 KRLX 300916
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
416 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold
front pushes east this afternoon. Cooler high pressure to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...
A low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes region
this morning. An associated warm front lifts north producing
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. A cold
front extends south from the low, and is expected to reach the OH
river by 18Z. This cold front will bring an increase in intensity
of the showers. A tight pressure gradient will produce gusty wind
around 30knots higher elevations.

High resolution models are in better agreement with synoptic
models in the timing of convection associated with this systems.
The bulk of the PCPN will move over the eastern mountains with a
chance of light snow showers over the eastern mountains tonight.
No significant snow accumulations are expected.

Plenty of clouds, but strong southwest flow will keep high
temperatures in the 60s. Much colder air behind the front will bring
lows to the 30s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the work week with
slightly below normal temperatures. Most of the area will remain
dry, but in the NW flow and with upper trough swinging through,
it`s possible that the mountains see some light snow showers.
Other than that, it will be a quiet end to the week after the
stormy weather we saw the first half.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

After Saturday, forecast confidence drops off considerable with
several inconsistencies noted in the operational and ensemble
model guidance. The end of the weekend and into Monday have a
fairly high probability for rainfall, but the guidance is having
trouble resolving how amplified and far south PFJ digs across the
Western U.S. This will greatly affect how much rainfall we could
receive from a system Sunday into Monday. If flow stays more zonal
then we will have little in the way of moisture make it into our
region. However, a more amplified pattern will have deep return
SW flow and an abundant amount of moisture will be pulled
northeast into the region. Hopefully guidance will resolve this
better by Thursday after we can actually sample the associated
short wave when it enters the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Wednesday...

a warm front lifts north bringing numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms this morning. Convection will continue as the
expected cold front cross the area from west to east this
afternoon and evening. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
along the heavier showers or storms. The heavier PCPN will
affect central and eastern sites through this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected. The actual front will
cross the OH river by 18-21Z. VFR conditions expected behind the
front.

The front will bring gusty southerly winds today, particularly
after 14Z, with gusts in the teen to 20 kt range across the
lowlands, and in the upper 20 to near 40 kt range in the higher
terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of rain and
associated restrictions this morning and again tonight may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 11/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    L    M    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    L    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...

IFR possible with a cold front tonight. IFR possible in the
mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher
elevations.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ



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