Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191933
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM...HUMID AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.  AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORNING FOG LIFTED BY MID MORNING CREATING A LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK
WHICH PRODUCE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DIAGONALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EVIDENT ON
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS ABOUT 1.4
INCHES BUT INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
POST RAINFALL FOG OR LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER WEAK FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ALSO SHOW A DESCENT SHORTWAVE AT 5 BRINGING A VORTICITY
MAXIMA REACHING OUR WEST BORDER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THIS LATEST FEATURE...DUE TO AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL HEATING.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF AND CONSENSUS MOS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ANOTHER NIGHT WHERE LOWS WILL DEPEND ON THEIR
DEWPOINTS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER TO MID 60S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. A WARMER AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S MAINLY
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL TRACK THRU THE AREA. ROUGH CONSENSUS
ON TIMING WITH ONE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY...A WEAKER ONE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONE ON FRIDAY. TRACK WILL DEPEND ON HOW BEEFY
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W GETS. APPEARS THAT S ZONES APPEAR TO BE
IN LINE FOR A COUPLE OF THIS DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS WITH THE JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DOWNPOURS WILL
BE LIKELY AND THUS EVENTUALLY A WORRY FOR WATER PROBLEMS IN AREAS
THAT GET HIT REPETITIVELY. WILL MAINTAIN HWO WORDING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO BUILD IN LATE. AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEARBY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WV...NORTHEAST KY AND WV BY 18Z. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT BKW TO BE
AFFECTED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WITH THIS PCPN ACTIVITY. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
SUNSET. AREAS OF POST PCPN FOG POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
BE HARD TO FORM PER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

AN H5 SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN VORTICITY MAXIMA REACHES OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT COULD
LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE STRONGER
STORMS AND THE WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS ATTM.. CODED IFR
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS BY 08Z AT MOST SITES.

LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANY
FOG LIFTS AFTER SUNRISE.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SW TONIGHT...WHILE
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LIGHT W THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT
SW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD BE DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG COULD LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION WED NT THROUGH FRI NT...AND
IN LATE NT/EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH SAT
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ








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