Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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224
FXUS61 KRLX 281029
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
629 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary frontal boundary, diurnal heating, high moisture and a
mid level short pose a threat for flash flooding through tonight.
Several disturbances and copious moisture will bring heavy
rainfall potential into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will continue to be warm and muggy overnight with the high
dewpoints and increasing clouds.

An old stationary front remains stuck nearby weakening as we
speak. The GFS h500 charts show a short wave will ride the
westerlies affecting our area through tonight. Clusters of showers
and storms will produce heavy rain capable to produce flash
flooding. A Flash Flood Watch continues in effect until 12Z
Friday.

The weather looks like all the previous days with a stationary
boundary, high sfc based CAPE and precipitable water around 2
inches. The NAM show and area of deep layered shear bullseyeing
50 knots at Randolph county, spreading southwest. An isolated
severe storms can not be ruled out with storms with equilibrium
levels of 42 Kft.

Any early morning fog should dissipate by 13Z lifting in low
stratus by 14-15Z.

Used National Blend of Models guidance for temperatures through
the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
One surface wave will be departing to our east to start the
period...likely leaving a boundary somewhere in the vicinity.
However, not much else to kick things off -- slightly rising 500mb
heights and the next surface wave still to our west. So, have
generally decreasing POPs Friday into Friday night but never went
with a dry forecast due to the boundary and plenty of low level
moisture around.

Better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as another
surface wave slides by. This feature is rather messy in the
models, but still kept likely POPs across much of the northern and
central CWA for now. May be able to fine tune as details resolve.

Will have to continue watch for water issues, as precipitable water
oscillates from 1.5 to around 2 inches with each wave. Will
mentioning HWO, but not enough confidence to commit to any specific
areas to extend the flash flood watch. A lot of it will depend on
which areas receive the most rain today into tonight. Expect
abundant clouds through the period, so instability will be somewhat
limited and not seeing any organized severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weather looks to remain unsettled for most of the extended period as
additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather
possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across
the region. Another front late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail outside showers or storms through this
evening. Radar and lightning data indicate clusters of showers
and storms moving north northeast across the southeast OH and
along the eastern mountains.

IFR conditions in dense fog at BKW should lift into low stratus by
13-14Z.

A mid level short wave will interact with stationary front and
abundant moisture to produce showers and storms through tonight.
Expect IFR conditions along the strongest storms.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog potential tonight depends greatly on
cloud coverage.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms through Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>009-
     013>020-024>032-036>040-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ083-085>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ



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