Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281407
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1007 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ONE MORE DAY. SOUTHERN MOISTURE BRUSHES AREA
MONDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR MID WEEK. COLD FRONT LONG ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF A WEAK S/W TROF. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THAT IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. TWEAKED
SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. WHILE MOST AREAS STRUGGLE
TO SEE SUN THIS MORNING...DO BELIEVE IT WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON /PERHAPS FILTERED AT TIMES BY CIRRUS/ AS AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO N OH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SAME STORY...DIFFERENT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. DO HAVE POPS INCREASING TO MEDIUM CHANCE RANGE
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO TEMPS...WENT A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE I64 CORRIDOR TODAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS. COOLED THE NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT
WHERE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT TREND ON MODELS WAS TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCE POPS A BIT MORE
FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. STILL DRY FOR OUR MID OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. WARM LAYER AROUND 10 TO 14 THSD FT ON MOST FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS...YET 00Z NAM TRIES TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HOLD ONTO
SOME 20 POPS LATER MONDAY.

00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN A BIT STRONGER ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH DROPPING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY.  WILL INSERT A 20 POP FOR A SHOWER ACROSS SOME NORTHERN
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
FEATURE.

OVERALL...THE WEAK/LAZY FLOW AND THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/AND ECENS MEAN.
THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AND/OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STANDING OUTSIDE...CAN ALREADY SEE THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DIM THE
EARLY MORNING STARS. HAVE SOME VARIABLE VALLEY FOG FLOATING
AROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME FOG 12Z-14Z BEFORE TURNING VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIRRUS. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...DID NOT HIT FOG VERY HARD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ








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