Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 230113
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
913 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low lingers around the mid Atlantic states into Monday.
High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys later Monday into
Tuesday. Warmer for mid and late week with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
830 pm update. Lingered showers a few more hours early tonight...
especially east of the Ohio River.

Previous discussion...
Upper low moving overhead today sliding down the eastern side of
the Appalachians providing instability for some afternoon and
early evening showers and tstorms. Precipitable water around 0.75
inch...so showers should not be very heavy.

Showers on the retreat overnight but some chance remains overnight
across the mountain counties closer to the upper level low.

May see some patchy fog overnight with saturated lower atmosphere.
Monday afternoon may see another round of showers, but think these
will be even more widely scattered than this afternoons round as
upper level forcing moves off to the east and CAPE minimizes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Not too much going on in the short term with high pressure
building into the region. Temperatures will start to rise as
ridging and southwesterly return flow starts to bring warm
tropical air mass overhead. Although...moisture will be on the
increase on...with dew points starting to climb into the low 60s
by the afternoon...it appears that showers and thunderstorms may
hold off. For now I went with a model consensus and bring slight
chance to low chance PoP into the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday
afternoon. However...the greater influx of moisture will take
place during the long term period starting on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring
warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow
off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S.
Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week
with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime
heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high
Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy
rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can
develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00z Monday thru 00z Tuesday...
Upper level low will slowly drop southeast thru the Mid Atlantic
States tonight...to just off the North Carolina coast by Monday
afternoon. Its broad circulation will slowly release its grip on
the area. Look for widely scattered showers in the west to end
this evening...and more numerous showers in the east to mostly end
after midnight. Look for scattered mainly afternoon showers mostly
in the mountains monday afternoon.

Thru 04z...VFR outside of lingering showers. After 05z...expect
more river valley fog tonight than last night...as clouds decrease
winds become very light to near calm...and earlier rains keep the
ground saturated. thus...expect some fog to develop at the major
terminals...with ifr at crw...ekn...pkb mainly 06z-12z.

After 12z...becoming vfr sct-bkn clouds abv 4000 feet outside
mountains by 14z...and vfr ceilings in mountains by 17z with just
a few rain showers redeveloping. north winds 5 to 10 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: low on fog tonight...depends on clouds and
how quickly winds decouple. otherwise...medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread dense fog if clearing and
calm winds occur sooner.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/23/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JMV



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