Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 132350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...
DECREASED SKY AND TEMPERATURE VALUES A BIT OVERNIGHT.  FCST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT...ABOUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
17Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME 10-20KT WINDS
TO MARK ITS POSITION. DO HAVE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO LIFT/SCATTER. INCLUDED SOME
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO START...AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. WILL
HAVE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT WITH COOL TEMPS AND
WARM RIVERS THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME RETURN MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO SOUTHERN CWA. INCLUDED MORE CLOUDS THERE...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

WITH THE LAST COOL SPELL...THE MET WAS THE OVERALL WINNER...SO
BLENDED TOWARD THE MET ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AMAZING HOW QUICKLY WE LOOSE THE W/NW FLOW...LEAVING PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE UPPER NEW RIVER VALLEY.  FIGURING MOSTLY
CLOUDS FOR US...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT FOR OUR SE COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  WAS A BIT
SLOWER INCREASING POPS MONDAY EVENING.  NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE SUPPORT AND MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE...40 NORTH...30 SOUTH FOR NOW. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE EXITING
THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUR WAY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES ON TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.,

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS THRU PERIOD
WITH WEAK BOARD 500 MB TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND OUR VICINITY.  THIS
LEAVES US IN A WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND KEEPING THE DOOR
SHUT FOR DEEP MOISTURE.

FIGURING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DOES NOT COME DIRECTLY OVER US BUT
REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS ALLOWS A PROLONG PERIOD OF E AND SE
FLOW.  SO WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN AND MORE CLOUDS ON OUR
EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL ACCEPT WPC GUIDANCE AND LEAVE DAY 7 DRY FOR
NOW...BUT DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES MAY SINK DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
FOR LESS STRATOCU BUT CLEAR SKY AND WIND BECOMING CALM WILL ALLOW
RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 06-08Z.  BKW WILL HAVE LOW MVFR STRATOCU
CIGS AT TIMES EARLY ON.

THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AROUND 13Z SUNDAY MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORNING CU...AND THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT VFR.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW EARLY ON BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON SUNDAY.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BECOMES LIGHT W
OVERNIGHT AND THEN REMAINS SO ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS AT BKW MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY
OF FOG MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 09/14/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM





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