Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 241927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR
WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW
LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
REPORTED 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER
THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.

REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT
OF OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO
KEEP LOWS UP A BIT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS
OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30/JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.