Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 212326
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
726 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses tonight. High pressure late Monday through
Monday night, then low pressure and unsettled conditions
Wednesday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...
Tweaked pops to better reflect current radar trends. Line of
showers and thunderstorms out ahead of approaching cold front,
with brief heavy downpours and small hail. Will let FFA ride for
a little while longer with approaching convection but think
overall threat for flooding very low.

As of 200 PM Sunday...

Very slow moving warm front drifting through CWA today, with a
cold front approaching from the west. Expect this cold front to
move through overnight. Have widespread, but mainly light rain
across most of the forecast area to start the period. Generally
seeing under a tenth of an inch per hour rain rates with
this...however radar starting to show a few areas of higher
reflectivity that could result in an area of a half to an inch
of rain in an hour. So far these areas have been moving along
enough to limit any water concerns. Will continue with flash
flood watch as it is, as it encompasses the area with the lowest
flash flood guidance fairly well. Overall, PWATs should be near
their max right now in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range, and then
slowly drop to around an inch right with the front.

Continue to advertise more scattered type showers and storms
between the warm front and cold front. Not a whole lot in the
way of instability as ML CAPE tops out around 400J/kg. But with
an upper level ripple sliding through cannot rule out and
isolated to scattered thunderstorm. Then, have an area of higher
POPs right along the cold front moving from west to east
tonight. Showers should taper off from west to east behind the
cold front, with some lingering precip possible across the
mountains Monday morning. Otherwise, high pressure arriving from
the west Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

We should dry out Monday night as weak surface high pressure
moves overhead. A broad area of low pressure moves in Tuesday
with most of the favorable dynamics to the east of our CWA.
Increasing chances for rain, mainly in the east.

The low pressure tightens up a bit for Wednesday sending an
upper low over our area and will likely cause showers and
thunderstorms to develop. So overall, fairly active this period
after Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

Zonal flow will keep the extended fairly active with at least
remnants of the Wednesday system lingering on Thursday. The next
system is slated to move through on Friday night with a rapid
succession following that through the weekend. This will likely
have to be something to keep an eye on for water issues towards
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

Bulk of rain associated with warm frontal boundary is starting
to exit the higher terrain counties. Brief MVFR conditions
possible in this rain. To the west in eastern Kentucky and
central Ohio, area of showers and thunderstorms has formed out
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect brief MVFR conditions
and a wind shift to a more westerly direction, along with brief
gusts in the lower 20 kt range and small hail with these storms.
Main area of concern with convection is generally west of KCRW
and KPKB.

Overnight, lots of uncertainty exists, but general idea is for
at least widespread mvfr with the possibility of local IFR
particularly across the mountains, before gradual improvement
after 12-14Z to VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions will vary in showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Conditions overnight may be worse
than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Dense fog is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for WVZ005-013-024>026-
     033-034-515-516.
OH...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for KYZ105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...SL



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