Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 271818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
218 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS
ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS
QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL
ONLY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS TRANSFORMED INTO DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE
AREA PROVIDING POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE TO FORM
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED COULD BE HTS AND PKB.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TAFS. IN
GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT UNDER A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR SHOWER OF STORM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE
A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE UNDER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AS
WELL AT MOST PLACES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ONLY THE GFS BRINGS QPF
OVERNIGHT...WHEN COMPARED WITH THE SUITE OF SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO
FORM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR.

.AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ



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