Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ


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