Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 201850
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
250 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
more widespread storms late tonight as a cold front crosses the
region. Front lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday.
System exits Sunday. Dry early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

Surface boundary with associated surface trough acting as a
trigger for some convective development this afternoon with a
thin line of thunderstorms extending from just south of KPKB to
KBLF. Also still seeing some isold redevelopment in eastern KY.
Will keep at least isold POPs through this evening with higher
values to the east. Front approaches from the west tracking
through from the 06Z-12Z timeframe. Have not strayed far from
inherited forecast in terms of timing the line that will be
associated with front as it moves through. For temps...went
with model blend with generous nod toward inherited forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Focus remains on the front lifting back to the north, providing
a focus for an extended period of showers and storms through
Saturday night. GFS is more generous in terms of holding the
higher PWATS through Saturday into Saturday night, which would
lend to higher QPF, whereas the NAM is a bit quicker in pulling
the mid level moisture out of the area. Regardless, will need to
watch areas for repetitive rounds of showers and storms once the
frontogenetic zone lifts back north into our CWA, as highlighted
by the update to the HWO this morning. Ground conditions are
currently still being set up with convection today and the cold
front tonight.

Lingering on the colder side of the boundary keeps temperatures
below normal for much of the CWA in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Long range models now strengthening the short wave trough
affecting the Great Lakes and its southern extent of rain into
the northern half of the CWA. However, blended guidance still
keeps not only the values of these POPs low, but the area
remains contained as well. Until then, drier conditions prevail
for the beginning of the week as temperatures rebound again
under increasing thicknesses and 850mb temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

Tracking fairly solid line of convection through central WV
which should clear forecast area by around 22Z. Seeing up to
30KT gusts, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with brief
IFR with this feature. In wake of line expect isold pop-up
convection to continue for the remainder of the afternoon.

Front and another round of associated convection will make its
way through aft 06z. Will see return MVFR and brief IFR
conditions arriving into the Ohio Valley aft 04Z. The storms
will weaken as they head east early Friday morning. In wake of
the feature broadbrushed IFR stratus for the early morning
hours.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR and maybe IFR could occur with
rain showers or possibly thunderstorms this afternoon and
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible Saturday into Sunday with another wave of low
pressure.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KMC/MPK


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