Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 231714
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
102 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday. A much stronger
cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

A weak cold front will move southward into the area late tonight and
Saturday. Moisture and dynamics are limited with the front...so
showers only possible during the daytime heating hours on Saturday.
Will continue to go above MOS guidance south of the cold front on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Friday...

A weak cold front will sag and stall over the southern portion of
the area and become non-existent. Mostly clouds will be
associated with it. Only difference will be the cooler air behind
it will filter in for the weekend. The next cold front is expected
to move into the area by late in the afternoon on Monday and
continue to cross the area Monday night. Moisture is lacking and
should only see convection with the front as it passes. Temps will
be noticeably cooler throughout.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12:25 pm Friday...

Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it.
Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high
pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary
trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of
the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high
pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and
for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures
are expected as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

High pressure will keep VFR conditions this afternoon and evening.
Fog late tonight is questionable. Leaning toward only fog in some
deeper valleys of the mountains. With a cold front coming in late
tonight in the north...expect any fog there to not be overly dense
and to dissipate early Saturday morning. Some MVFR clouds are
possible right along the front Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog late tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...

Dense valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday morning, and then
again Tuesday night. Low stratus is possible Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...RPY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.