Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 100731
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper trough moves away today. Next upper trough and cold front
push east Monday night, with a stronger upper trough on
Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 231 AM Sunday...

Latest radar mosaic shows snow showers continue across portions
of the area. Based on latest guidance, the snow showers should
end across the lowland counties by sunrise and then across the
mountains before noon. Current thinking is that a few inches of
additional snow is still possible in the higher elevation with
lesser amounts in the lowlands. Will continue Winter Weather
Advisory for the higher elevations until 9 AM today.

Clouds should break up from the west today allowing for
sunshine, especially across portions of northeast Kentucky,
northwest Virginia and the southern and central counties of West
Virginia. However even with the sunshine, temperatures will
remain below normal with readings in the 20s across the highest
elevations and 30s across the remainder of the area.

Another system will move across the state tonight. This system
appears to be moisture starved and do not expect much in the way
of precipitation. Models show widely suggest areas of precipitation
across the northern mountain counties. Have maintained slight
chance PoPS there to reflect this trend as well as matching up
with the neighboring offices. Overnight temperatures should be a
few degrees below normal. with some mid level moisture/cloud
cover for the region, but no precipitation late Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

As the system to our north exits, winds shift to the SW
overnight on Sunday and continues into Monday. The warm
southerly air will warm temperatures back to near normal for
this time of year. A cold front pushes across the area Monday
night and Tuesday morning. Precip may start out as a mix but
everything behind the front should quickly change back to snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday...

Much colder air filters in behind the cold front on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. NW flow with a fetch off the Great Lakes may
provide some lake enhanced snow showers from Tuesday night through
early Wednesday morning.

The active pattern continues through the week, with a brief
break Wednesday before a clipper system pushes through late in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1232 AM Sunday...

Latest radar analysis and surface observations show snow showers
continue to push southeast across the region. MVFR conditions
prevailed in most locations while IFR conditions were occurring
in the heavier snow showers.

The snow should end across the lowland counties by 14Z and then
across the mountain counties by 17Z. In the mountains, BKW and
EKN will have an IFR threat in snow through 09Z.

Expect MVFR stratocu deck will persist through much of the
morning across much of the lowland counties, and into the
afternoon in and near the mountains.

VFR conditions should prevail across the entire region around
18Z, with these conditions prevailing through 06Z Monday.

Gusty west to northwest surface winds will back to the
southwest this afternoon and become much lighter after 00Z
Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and IFR may vary
from forecast. Timing on improvement on ceilings today may
vary. Gusty winds will vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 12/10/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Another wave Monday night through Tuesday is forecast to have
similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring
the mountain terminals. IFR in snow possible on Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for WVZ520-
     522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JSH


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