Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 241855
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT HEAVILY WITH THE NAM MODEL. EVEN THOUGH THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FEATURES FEEL THAT THE GFS IS
SUFFERING SOME TYPE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION IN WAY TOO SOON TOMORROW /MONDAY/. THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS REALLY A TEMP AND WIND FORECAST.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MT/WY GETS
ORGANIZED AND MOVES EAST. WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BY 18Z. DID
CONTINUE TREND OF AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE
SHORT TERM IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX.

WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ENDING UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING...SAGGING
SOUTH INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONGER
STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO OUR WEST. SPC HAS GONE AHEAD AND PLACED
NORTHERN WV/SOUTHERN OHIO ZONES IN A MRGL RISK FOR TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...THIS
SHOULDNT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT ACTIVE WITH A WARM FRONT BRINGING
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY SIGNALS START TO
BECOME SIGNIFICANT. GFS SHOWING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM. SO UPPED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THIS PACKAGE. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
THU NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MAY KEEP THINGS INTERESTING...SO RELUCTANT TO GO DRY ON POPS
FOR FRI. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. NO REAL OVERNIGHT CONCERNS WITH
FOG. AN INSIGNIFICANT 20K FOOT CEILING WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS
SUNRISE FOR THE COAL FIELDS AND MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/MPK/SL
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...FB



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