Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 171854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TROUGH ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WE WILL BE
IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND SHOWERS THAT EXITED
EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE
PERSISTENT WET UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO DOMINATE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A STORM REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS LONG AWAITED
VERY WET UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW OPENING UP AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COMPLIMENTS OF AN
UPSTREAM KICKER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING IT ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTWARD DURING
MONDAY. THUS...THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CLUSTERED RATHER
TIGHTLY AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA BEFORE TURNING A BIT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL MAINLY SEE MORE SCATTERED
DIURNAL TYPE ACTIVITY...AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF US
DOES NOT GET PICKED UP BY THIS UPPER SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE A MORE GENERAL RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION...OR CLUSTERS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO
MORE WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN PATTERN...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MENTION WATER CONCERNS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE MAIN RAIN BAND SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BY LATE MORNING.

IT WILL CERTAINLY BE WARM AND HUMID THIS PERIOD...FEELING MORE LIKE
SUMMER. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE SEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A LARGELY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN
A SYNOPTICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO LATE SUMMER WITH
TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE CHARACTERISTICS. FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC CANNOT YIELD TO ENOUGH STABILITY TO WARRANT NO WEATHER
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN WEST TO EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT/ OR TWO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED LOW BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

NOT CONVINCED...HOWEVER...THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
OUR AREA. BEST DEFORMATION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR NOT OPTING FOR
LIKELIES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE BEST SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SPLIT THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THEME OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. EURO POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT WOULD LIE OUTSIDE
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WINDOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT 18Z...WITH A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THRU 01Z...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREVAILING CEILINGS AOA 4000 FEET...EXCEPT MVFR IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 01Z...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPREAD THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 17Z. THE MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-EKN LINE...WHERE VFR CEILINGS
EARLY TONIGHT WILL LOWER INTO IFR/LIFR WITH THE RAIN. NORTH AND
WEST OF THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THIS PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU 18Z.EXCEPT FOR
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV








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