Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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405
FXUS61 KRLX 200244
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
944 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system
late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts
this way for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...
Clearing has worked southeastward into central WV as weak low
level troughing brings in some drier air from OH, while clear
skies continue over the southern sections of WV and sw VA.
Clouds expected to get hung up, or redevelop along and east of
the I79 corridor later tonight. So have adjusted clouds
overnight to basically keep them or redevelop east of the I79
corridor. In any event, looks like patchy dense fog, especially
in river valleys, will develop between midnight and 3 AM, with
clear areas developing faster.


As of 705 PM Sunday...
Tricky forecast overnight as to what happens to clouds, and in
turn, what happens with fog, as weak high pressure and near calm
winds develop. Looks like clouds will erode somewhat from the
northwest and south, but leaving an east to west band across the
central sections where low level inversion is strongest.
However, with wet ground and near calm winds, will go with
patchy dense fog most areas overnight, just later where clouds
hold on. Any clouds and fog will dissipate during Monday morning
as mixing of very dry air aloft occurs, leaving at least a
mostly sunny afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system
looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. Improving
conditions on Wednesday. No cold air behind this system, so
expect the very warm air to hold.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

The very warm pattern to end the work week. showers and perhaps
a few storms may fire along a developing warm front Thursday. Temps
may soar well into the 70s on Friday in the warm sector, ahead
of a potent cold front set to cross Friday night. I have
continued the idea of thunder with the front. A significant
cool down is expected over the weekend with high pressure
building overhead, though still running above normal in the
temperature department.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...
Adjusted MVFR ceilings overnight to keep them mostly along and
east of the I79 corridor. LIFR fog still for on tap for the
major TAF sites between 06Z and 13Z, developing faster under
where skies are clear.


AS OF 710 PM SUNDAY...
Weak high pressure building in overnight with near calm winds.
One issue is what happens to extensive MVFR ceilings 1000-2000
feet, especially across central sections of the area where a low
level inversion is greatest. Hi res models are trending to
erode clouds from the northwest somewhat as a weak 925 mb trough
with dry air behind it enters SE OHIO and NW WV, and turns
winds more to the northwest, while keeping southern coal fields
mostly clear to begin with. However, even where MVFR clouds
hold, we expect at least patchy LIFR fog to develop overnight
due to wet ground and near calm winds, especially in the river
valleys. The big question is timing of the fog which will affect
the major TAF sites; the more clouds hold at a TAF site the
later the LIFR fog. We expect the time of this fog issue to be
between 06Z and 14Z depending on cloud erosion. Thereafter,
mixing will improve conditions to VFR mostly clear by 16Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Clouds may erode more than forecast and
LIFR fog become even more of an issue overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 02/20/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    H    M    M    L    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    L    M    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV



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