Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 251620
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1220 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Remaining hot and muggy today. Cold front sinks in late today lingering
into Tuesday. Another system is slated for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated...Added a few more counties to the heat advisory. Dew
point temps a tad higher than forecast attm and coupled with
forecasted temps well into the 90s should boost heat indicies to
low to mid 100s.

Also, upped pops and tstm coverage as per radar.

Previous Discussion...
Another hot and humid day is expected today, with heat indices
around 100 across much of the middle Ohio River Valley and
southwestern WV lowlands. Minor changes made to afternoon highs by
blending in ECMWF MOS, but heat advisory criteria is still well
covered by current advisory and no changes planned.

NAM and GFS seem a bit bullish on QPF early this morning, so
relied more on HRRR with POPs mainly holding off until after 15Z.
Cold front approaching northwestern CWA late this afternoon, and
have likely POPs developing around 20Z-21Z. That front should
slowly sink south through CWA. Initially, sink an area of likely
POPs south as well, but as we enter the typical diurnal minimum
for convection late tonight, have POPs gradually waning into the
chance range.

Lots of instability available in this hot and humid airmass, so
expect storms to grow quite tall. Not a whole lot in the way of
shear for much of the day, but an increase to 20-30kts bulk shear
is expected just ahead of the cold front. With this in mind,
thinking organized area of strong to severe thunderstorms not
likely, but isolated/pop up strong to severe storms possible. The
best chance of this will be across the northern quarter of the
CWA, near the front this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
would be the most likely threat as storms pulse up and down.
Freezing level will be pretty high to get large hail, so it would
take a persistent tall storm to produce hail.

Precipitable water values also high late today into tonight --
topping out above 2 inches. Combined with the fairly weak flow,
downpours are likely and could lead to localized water issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A sfc stationary front will stay in the vicinity Tuesday into
Wednesday. Expect this front to oscillate back and forth keeping
chance for showers and storms mainly across the southern half of
our CWA. Models show sfc based CAPE exceeding 3000 J/Kg, low deep
layered shear and precipitable water around 2 inches. These
parameters suggest showers and storm can develop quickly capable
to produce heave downpours in a short period of time. Isolated
water problems could happens on training cells or repetitive path
of showers and storms.

High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees lowlands to
low 70s higher elevations. Went closer to the super blend for
temperatures through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This front dissolves later on Thursday as the next s/w trof and
surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage
by Friday. An amplifying upper level trof will settle in for the
weekend with a cooler airmass taking hold.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any lingering fog should quickly dissipate this morning. A cold
front approaches from the north today, so have some showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast -- mainly this afternoon into
tonight. Should individual cells approach TAF sites, restrictions
would be needed. Have low confidence in fog formation tonight,
which will depend on where it rains late in the day and how many
clouds linger.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm may directly
impact a TAF site late today into tonight with brief IFR
conditions.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on
lingering clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>029.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JS/MZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.