Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191600
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1200 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period. A deep low
pressure system arrives Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry high pressure moves east resulting in clear skies and mild
temperatures. There will be fog development during the predawn
hours. Models suggest that a warm front, evident in theta-e
patterns, lifts north Friday morning keeping a chance for showers
or storms. Additional showers and storm activity will come with a
cold front with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1
inch.

The nature of the convection associated with upper lows usually
move slow or have rain over and over the same area. Therefore,
expect periods of heavy rain and minor water problems.

Used the bias corrected SREF and the superblend numbers for
temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure drifts away from the forecast area Friday, with
moisture on the increase ahead of a surface low lifting out of the
lower Mississippi Valley. Overall not any significant changes made
to timing of pops, although did increase to 100% across the
eastern slopes. NAM and ECMWF try to show initial surface low
moving into the Ohio River Valley, whereas the GFS has it farther
south and east. Overall track may have some impact on potential
for downslope effect across central WV, but enough moisture should
still be in place to maintain higher POPs. Precipitable water
should be in the 1-1.5 inch range Friday night into
Saturday...with areas of heavy rain possible. Best location for
heavy rain will depend some on the track of the surface low, so
will continue mention of potential for flash flooding across
entire CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models show wrap-around moisture with the potential for some
showers Monday and Tuesday. SFC high pressure will try to take
control starting the new week. Have some chance to chance pops
across the east Monday, but went dry on Tuesday.

Went with WPC for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dense fog under light flow and wet ground. Conditions improve to
VFR by mid morning. With some heating...expect some bkn MVFR
stratocu over the mountains with just a sct VFR cu field
elsewhere.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing the fog breakout will vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
The next system could bring IFR conditions Friday night and
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ



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