Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 182318
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
718 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ








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