Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 060601
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
101 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SUNDAY...WITH A TRANQUIL FEBRUARY
ENVIRONMENT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. NO
CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
930 PM UPDATE...
PER CURRENT TRENDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
TOWARD THE MAV OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...BUT CI SHOULD PREVENT THE
BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT ON LOWS TOO MUCH.

645 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK THIS QUIET EVENING.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SO DECIDED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST...GIVING US WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IF NOT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR A GREATER PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NICE WX REGIME WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY
THE NAM...INDICATE PRECIP TYPE CONUNDRUMS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE BL...PRIMARILY BELOW 2 KFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A MAINLY LIQUID
PHASE WITH FROPA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS
RISING IN THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. TRIED TO WORK THE
HOURLY TEMPS USING A WETBULB EFFECT GIVEN THE GOOD VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK ON. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW AS THE FRONT CROSSES ON
MONDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AT THIS POINT
NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY ASIDE FROM A
1 TO 3 INCH COATING ABOVE 2 KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE INITIAL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...POPS INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO OHIO
AND SURFACE LOW TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TOWARD DELMARVA.

GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR NOW...WITH 500 MID LEVEL LOW IN OUR VCNTY
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. OLD SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...OF MID
LEVEL LOW GOING TO OUR SOUTH...SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.  WEAKENING 500
MB TROF REMAINS IN VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLDER 850 MB
TEMPS STILL ADVECTING IN ON WEDNESDAY.  HAVE MIN TEMPS NEAR ZERO
AOB 4 THSD FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONLY APPARENT TEMPS AT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY ALSO MOSTLY AOA 4 THSD FT.  SO NOT WORTH HIGHLIGHTING
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.

ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALSO STILL TRIED TO KEEP OUR POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROF AND MOISTURE DEPTH STILL UP TO 10 THSD FT.

PICTURING AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...A LOT OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IN LOWLANDS OVER 12 HOURS...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THINKING MORE TOWARD WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES THAN TAKING THE WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING AVENUE. OF
COURSE...OVER 48 HOURS AMOUNTS WILL ADD UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.

LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 6 AND 7...IN THE 100+ KNOT 250 MB FLOW FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST. COULD EASILY SEE SOME CLIPPER ACTION...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING. INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR NOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS SHOW A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO DRY THAT FOG IS NOT EVEN
EXPECTED.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT S TO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT SW ON SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF BROKEN 4-5KFT STRATOCU MAY VARY
SAT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 02/06/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAUGE AT PARKERSBURG...ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...HAS BEEN
FIXED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/MPK
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...


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