Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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567
FXUS61 KRLX 211430
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1030 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance passes Tonight. High pressure Wednesday night
and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of
low pressure over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM Tuesday...

Cold front slipping down into southwest VA attm with little in
the way of radar returns noted. In its wake is an expansive area
of low stratus with embedded patchy fog. We should see this
stratus breakup this afternoon...first across southeast OH and
northwest WV. There is hope for some glimpses of sun elsewhere
before it sneaks beneath the horizon. I tweaked highs today
based on cloud cover and latest Lamp/HRRR.

As of 235 AM Tuesday...

Overall, drier weather expected in the near term period than as of
late. Still have area of showers pushing east through the CWA this
morning, but once it goes through, looking at a mostly dry period,
but with plenty of cloud cover hanging around for much of the day.
May see some breaks across the north later today, but clouds will
increase again later this evening and tonight, as an upper
disturbance moves through the region. Elected to make no changes to
the previous max t forecast, which is several degrees lower than
current guidance, due to expected cloud cover today.

As mentioned, a weak wave will move across the area late tonight.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to whether much if any
precipitation will be realized, but elected to keep a slight chance
across the mountains and central/southern zones late tonight.
Otherwise, much of the area should remain dry overnight, with a
stronger wave of low pressure and its associated moisture tonight
looking to remain to the south of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 450 AM Tuesday...

A large high pressure system slides by to the northeast of the
forecast area, making it from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning
to a position from off the middle Atlantic coast, ridging back
into the southeastern states, Friday morning. Of arctic origin,
while this high will bring a hard freeze Thursday morning, dew
points will be much more conserved than temperatures, and
Thursday afternoon in particular will bring very low humidity.

A wave passing by to the southwest of the forecast area
Wednesday night into Thursday will bring mid and high cloud
across roughly the better southwest half of the forcast area,
but precipitation should stay to the southwest.

Warm advection showers may affect roughly the northern half of
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday, with the slight
chance for some sort of wintry mix briefly across the northern
mountains early Friday morning, if precipitation arrives before
temperatures can climb high enough for rain.

The area will reside in a southerly flow of increasingly warm
and moist air Friday afternoon through Friday night, as high
pressure drifts off the southeast coast.

Temperatures close to central guidance with no major changes
from previous. Preserved the idea of temperatures climbing
toward dawn Friday in warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 450 AM Tuesday...

This is increasingly looking to be an unsettled period. After a
warm Saturday, low pressure drags a cold front into the area
from the west Saturday afternoon and night. This is likely to
push thunderstorms into the area during this time, before the
front slows down. It gets left behind as a wavy west to east
boundary across the area into early next week, with waves of
low pressure riding east along it.

Temperatures close to central guidance. While Saturday will be
the warmest day, temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

Widespread MVFR and local IFR/LIFR conditions in widespread
stratus and fog. These conditions will linger across much of the
area through at least 16-18Z, when gradual improvement to VFR is
expected. Conditions may be slower to improve across the higher
terrain.

Light surface winds during the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of IFR conditions
Tuesday morning uncertain. Also, timing of improvement to VFR
conditions uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    M    L    M    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    L    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL



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