000
FXUS61 KRLX 132346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
ON TAP.  WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER MIDWEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK POPS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RECENT MODEL RUNS...THINKING CURRENT
FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN DECENT SHAPE. SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK TO
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS
FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING COPIOUS CU FIELD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY. EXPECTING DIURNAL CU TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IN THE FIRST TWO PERIODS IS DEALING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...HOWEVER...IS THE HIGH CIRRUS
CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 12Z NAM
HAS THIS CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY PROGGED WELL IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS
FROM H7 TO H5. CONSENSUS OF NEAR TERM MODELS HAS THE H5 MOISTURE
ARRIVING AT OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY AROUND 03Z...H7 MOISTURE A FEW
HOURS LATER. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG OUR WESTERN FLANK FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT QUICK ENOUGH PROTECT OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WV COUNTIES FROM FROST FREEZE CONCERNS. HAVE UPGRADED
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN WV TO A FREEZE WARNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
WATCH...AND HAVE INCLUDED AT LEAST A LAYER OF COUNTIES IN A FROST
ADVISORY. AM FOR NOW DECIDING TO STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF OUR WV LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SE OH COUNTIES IN TERMS
OF FROST/FREEZE AS TIMING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS COULD VARY SOME.

QUICK WARMUP FROM BELOW AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS WE QUICKLY
FIND OURSELVES IN STRONG WAA. NOT FULLY CONVINCED ENOUGH MOISTURE
RESIDES ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO GENERATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHCS ALONG WELL PROGGED H85 POT
TEMP GRADIENT OFF 12Z NAM. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER CHANCE AS
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE NIL...DESPITE THE DAY 2 GENERAL THUNDER
FROM SPC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO CURRENT FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
AREA WIDE. THE FORECAST AREA IS KIND OF STUCK IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN SPLIT FLOW. BY THURSDAY A FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND THIS FRONT SLOWLY MEANDERS SOUTHWARD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINS STATIONARY. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT MOST LIKELY WON/T BE A TOTAL WASH EACH DAY AND
EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY FRIDAY AND WILL BE 10 OR SO DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO CURRENT FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
AREA WIDE. THE FORECAST AREA IS KIND OF STUCK IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN SPLIT FLOW. BY THURSDAY A FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND THIS FRONT SLOWLY MEANDERS SOUTHWARD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINS STATIONARY. THIS WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT MOST LIKELY WON/T BE A TOTAL WASH EACH DAY AND
EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY FRIDAY AND WILL BE 10 OR SO DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. MID
AND HIGH HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS TUES AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/14/13
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ009-010-
     016>019-027>029-035-036.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ011-020-
     030>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ067-076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TAX
NEAR TERM...SL/TAX
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...SL