Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 141915
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front remains near the area through Monday, before lifting north
as a warm front. A cold front can be expected Tuesday night. Another
system is possible toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

The next area of rain currently moving into the area. Thankfully
most places have warmed above freezing...thus the freezing rain advisory
has been cancelled. This final impulse will move out tonight
with the old frontal boundary riding its coat tails out of here.
In its wake drier and colder air will be trying its hardest to
advect south into the area late tonight. This should allow the
low stratus to scatter out across portions of southeast OH and
northern WV which could result in dense fog or freezing fog
forming along with some black ice as surface temps fall into the
20s. Will pass along concern to evening shift for perhaps an SPS
to address this. Elsewhere...a period of drizzle will be
realized after the system departs with low stratus and fog
hanging tough into the morning hours. This will gradually break
up as the day progresses on Sunday with some sunshine being
realized across the north. This will be temporary as mid and
high clouds build in from the west ahead of the next isentropic
lift system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

The front that has been waffling around the area will lift northward
as a warm front Sunday night and Monday. Some models indicating that
freezing rain is a possibility Monday morning. Will have to monitor
this situation closely. An approaching weak cold front will then
bring chances of showers Tuesday, with the front pushing through
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Cooler air will move in behind a cold front on Wednesday. Models
then have considerable differences for the end of the week and into
the weekend, although agreeing on unseasonably warm weather.
Therefore, forecast confidence in precipitation is low during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

Widespread IFR or worse conditions will continue through tonight
across the area. One final area of rain is moving into the area
as of 18Z and will allow vsby to improve out of VLIFR...but
still staying below IFR. Cigs may improve a bit as well but
will stay IFR or LIFR. This system will move out of the area
this evening along with the old frontal boundary as the flow
turn more northwesterly. A period of drizzle is expected
following the frontal passage. As such we do not anticipate any
improvement with cigs or vsby except for northern taf sites as
drier air will try to advect in from the north...making it into
southeast OH and northern WV late. However, this will only
increase the dense fog potential should the low stratus scatter
out.

Drier air will continue to slowly advect south Sunday
morning...allowing for a slow improvement into MVFR at
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving conditions at northern taf
site may vary several hours. Dense fog may not form is low
stratus holds there overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    L    L    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    L    L    L    M    L    L    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

IFR possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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