Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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390
FXUS61 KRLX 190052
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
852 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons, with
temperatures moderating through the weekend. A strong cold
front and low pressure system cross early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
845 PM Wednesday...

High pressure rules with no significant changes to forecast.
Patchy and brief frost northeast WV early Thursday morning is
possible.

As of 140 PM Wednesday...

A s/w trof will cross the area overnight with little fanfare.
What it will do is keep the boundary layer winds up so that any
frost should be patchy in nature and confined to the most
protected hollows in the northern lowlands. This will also serve
to mitigate dense river valley fog, save for the mountain
valleys. Lows tonight were primarily derived from a met/mav
blend except across the mountain valleys/northern lowlands,
where forecast lows are a bit below guidance.

Thursday will be another stellar day after a cool start.
Afternoon temps will average 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

High pressure and upper level ridging will remain in control
through the period. Another cold night expected Thursday night
with temperatures mainly in the 40s. As the high pressure drift
east, southwest flow will bring gradual warming through the
weekend.

Super blend models reflects a warming trend in increasing
southerly flow, around the back side of the exiting high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

After one more dry, warm day on Sunday, better chances for
showers or storms are possible as an upper level northern
stream trough drives a cold front toward the area Sunday night,
bringing an increasing chance for showers overnight Sunday night
through Monday.

A second upper level short wave trough digs deep into the
eastern U.S. Monday night through Tuesday. Although, models are
in agreement with the timing of FROPA, this timing can vary,
with the front possibly pushing into the Ohio Valley as early as
Sunday night, on account of the initial northern stream short
wave trough.

Pattern recognition and model interpretation provide high
confidence that the with northern stream trough will become in
phase with the southern stream low to intensify and bring
numerous showers or storms Monday night into Tuesday. Have the
chance for afternoon thunder ahead of the cold front, throughout
the area on Monday, and eastern portions of the area Tuesday.

Went with the bias corrected SREF for temperatures through the
period. There will be a gradual increase in temperatures
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z Thursday thru 00Z Friday...
As of 735 PM Wednesday...

Dry S/W trof swings thru overnight which will keep the boundary
layer mixed to an extent. This, in turn, should mitigate most dense
river valley fog. As such the tafs were kept void of IFR or
worse fog overnight except at KEKN 06Z-12Z, where a strong low
level inversion will stiff arm the puff at H925. Otherwise, VFR
mostly clear thru the period. Winds becoming southwest to west
after 14Z Thursday 5 to 10 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium for fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog may affect more terminals if
low level winds relax.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 10/19/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and
in rain at times early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV



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