Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120705 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS STORMY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY...WITH NOTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LACK OF MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA E MAKES IT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER WE COULD STAND SOMETHING UP OVERNIGHT...EVEN AS A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER IS ERADICATED. HAVE SCHC UP N TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY. INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEAT ACROSS THE CWA. PW VALUES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING THAT STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES. WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT/STRONG WINDS ALOFT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...CREATING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOG SHOULD BE LESS COMPARED WITH THU NT GIVEN ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. YET...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IFR TO VLIFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY EKN AND CRW...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE OTHER SITES THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR FCST WITH HIGH CU BASES AGAIN SAT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MID CLOUD MOVING IN SAT NT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY. SFC FLOW WILL BE CALM BY NT AND LIGHT SW BY DAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WORRIED THERE IS MORE RATHER THAN LESS FOG OVERNIGHT / EARLY SAT MORNING.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/12/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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