Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242306 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 703 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM Sunday... A persistent high pressure will continue to provide dry conditions with warm afternoon and cool nights through the period. Near calm winds and clear skies could produce river valley fog during the predawn hours Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Sunday... No significant changes to the forecast. As of 240 AM Sunday... No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in the short term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 PM Sunday... A cold front will drop through the region from the northwest to start the period, though models remain consistent in bringing it in mostly dry with only slight chance PoPs across the southern WV and southwest VA mountains given more favorable upslope flow. This is in response to a subtle shortwave embedded within an increasingly amplified long-wave trough, with the larger trough moving through over the weekend. Moisture availability is again forecast to be scant with low level Great Lakes moisture struggling to reach this area. Progressively cooler air settles in behind the two cold fronts with weekend temperatures currently forecast to be around 5 degrees F below average. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 700 PM Sunday... VFR conditions can be expected with the exception of some late night/early morning river valley fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Late night valley fog through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...RPY

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