Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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536 FXUS61 KRLX 290542 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 142 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clouds gradually break today as high pressure arrives. A warm front pushes in Thursday, ahead of a system that crosses Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in for Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Wednesday... Secondary cold front exiting the CWA early this morning with any isolated showers/drizzle ending. Dense layer of stratus in place under northerly flow. This will gradually break up today. There always seems to be an area covering a handful of counties where the clouds linger longer than expected. Quite often this is somewhere in the Kanawha Valley to Tri-State region. With this in mind, did increase cloud cover along I-64 across the lowlands into mid afternoon. Also dropped temps a few degrees in this area. In reality, there will probably be a much sharper gradient to the clouds than the forecast shows, so confidence not the highest on exactly how the clouds/temps evolve today. Winds gradually turn east to southeast tonight. This could lead to some rain/drizzle in the low level moisture trapped along the eastern slope late tonight. Opted to keep the forecast for tonight dry right now but do have clouds increasing ahead of an approaching warm front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 420 PM Tuesday... Mid and high warm advection cloud spills over the ridge, emanating from the next southern stream upper level low approaching from the west. This may bring rain Thursday, but the bulk of the rain with this system is more likely overnight Thursday night and Friday. As a warm front pushes northward through the area on Thursday, moisture increases and, coupled with the heating of the day and moderate to strong mid level flow, could lead to late day thunderstorms across southwest portions of the forecast area. This activity should then wane with the loss of heating Thursday night. Thunder is again possible Friday afternoon over the lowlands, but with a CAD wedge holding up the warm front, surface based instability is not likely to be realized farther east. The upper low pushes east Friday night, leaving just upslope rain showers in and near the mountains, and lots of clouds area wide, by Saturday morning. Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued above normal spring pattern.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 PM Tuesday... Exiting low pressure brings clouds, and upslope rain showers in and near the mountains, on Saturday. Loss of heating and high pressure building in dries the weather out quickly Saturday night, and the dry weather continues on Sunday. The next in the parade of southern stream bowling balls crosses early next week. Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued above normal spring pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Wednesday... Low stratus will bring MVFR to IFR through much of the morning as northerly flow continues. Cut back a bit on IFR coverage across the lowlands based on recent guidance. Clouds should gradually break up late this morning and this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset of IFR ceilings tonight and improvement Wednesday morning may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M M L H L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MZ

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