Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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191 FXUS61 KRLX 290733 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 333 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure passes south of the area today. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure Thursday. A low brings a front into the area Friday. Unsettled again next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Monday... The last of the showers crossing northern WV early this morning, will exit the mountains around dawn, or shortly thereafter, as the causative cold front moves through. Today will bring dry weather in the wake of the front, with high pressure passing to the south of the area this afternoon. The drop in dew points lags behind the front, which was crossing the Ohio River early this morning. Values are not forecast to settle into the 50s until this afternoon, when the mixing layer climbs to at least h8. Dew points climb again tonight, in southwest flow ahead of another cold front approaching from the west. There should be just enough flow, along with some clouds, to prevent much fog from forming, except perhaps in the hollows of the southern WV coal fields. Timing of the front gives rise to the chance for showers over the middle Ohio Valley by dawn Tuesday, mainly north of HTS. Temperatures close to previous package and latest guidance blends, with values at least leveling off ahead of the cold front tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Monday... Unsettled weather remains Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper low to linger across Great Lakes region in the short term period, with a series of cold fronts, one on Tuesday, followed by another on Wednesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible during this period as fronts traverse the region. Overall threat for severe weather with these fronts remains low.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Monday... After a brief break in the precipitation on Thursday, another front will move south into the region Friday into Saturday, before stalling out briefly and lifting back north late in the weekend as another low moves into the Ohio Valley region. High moisture content air will surge back into the area, with dew points rising into the mid to upper 60s. This looks to be a period of heavy showers and thunderstorms, and will need to be monitored for potential water issues.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 AM Monday... A cold front will move through overnight with showers and potentially a rumble of thunder. Not expecting real heavy rain with this, so kept visibilities in VFR -- but should a heavier shower head toward a TAF site, it may need amended. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR and possibly some IFR in the mountains as the front passes. Expect MVFR to gradually break up and lift from west to east Monday morning, with high cu bases in the afternoon, aoa 6kft. Another cold front approaching from the west may bring enough clouds and wind to preclude fog formation Monday night, save for the valleys of the southern WV coal fields again. Surface flow will be light west to southwest while light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft overnight into Monday morning becomes light west to southwest for Monday afternoon and night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Occurrence and timing of MVFR or worse conditions may vary overnight, and may need to add visibility restrictions for heavier showers. Timing of improvement from MVFR ceilings in morning cu Monday may vary, but confidence is high in high cu bases Monday afternoon, as the mixing layer deepens. Fog cannot entirely be ruled out toward dawn Monday or toward 06Z Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/29/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H L M L M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H M M M M H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in isolated showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday, and in fog Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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