-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
722
FXUS61 KRLX 020533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Thursday...

An upper level ridge remains over the area today while a frontal
boundary - initially located near the northwest fringe of the CWA -
is lifted further north as a low moves out of the Central Plains
and approaches the Great Lakes later today. Dry low-level air
should allow dry conditions to persist across the area today,
though some mid to high level clouds may continue to drift
overhead.

Ridging begins to slide east tonight as a cold front slowly
approaches from the west. While quiet weather should linger
through the night, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected
to occur ahead of the front.

After a mild morning, daytime highs are expected to climb into
the upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the
mountains. Tonight will be mild again with lows likely to be in
the 50s to 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as upper level ridging
slowly works east through the region. Despite daytime highs nearly
15 degrees above normal values for this time of the year, high
temperature records should be secure.

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting
shifting east Friday along surface low pressure transiting the Upper
Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values edge up
toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front associated
with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night. Upper level
support for this feature largely stays well to the north allowing
the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday. This will also
keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding relatively slow
storm motions. Could potentially have some very isolated water
issues accumulate with multiple slow moving storms moving over the
same location, but given the state of vegetation and recent dry
conditions, concerns are relatively low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

A northern stream shortwave approaching late Saturday night
into Sunday morning will better focus precipitation chances, but
a modest increase in mid-level flow will also allow for faster
storm motions further limiting any threat for flash flooding.

Should see a brief break in showery activity late Sunday into early
Monday morning as transient ridging briefly builds ahead of warm
frontal passage during the day Monday bringing additional showers
and thunderstorms.

The weak flow regime comes to an end Wednesday as ridging over the
eastern half of the country shifts east allowing stronger upper
level flow to return to the region. This would yield increasing
concerns for strong to severe storms during the day Wednesday,  but
this will hinge heavily on eventual cold frontal timing.

Daytime highs remain modestly above normal values for this time of
the year, but with added Gulf influenced moisture overnight lows
will be within a few degrees of their record high minimums
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are currently present across the area, while high
level clouds move overhead. A few areas of fog could attempt to form
towards daybreak, though confidence in development is low. Sub-
VFR CIGs/VIS could be possible if fog does form early this
morning, then flight conditions would improve back to VFR
shortly after sunrise and remain VFR for the rest of the TAF
period.

Calm to light winds are expected to linger into the morning, then
winds remain light and variable for the rest of the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form this morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 05/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday,
and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JLB