-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
503
FXUS61 KRLX 020742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
342 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes
out over the area this weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

An upper level ridge remains over the area today while a frontal
boundary - initially located near the northwest fringe of the CWA -
is lifted further north as a low moves out of the Central Plains
and approaches the Great Lakes later today. Dry low-level air
should allow dry conditions to persist across the area today,
though some mid to high level clouds may continue to drift
overhead.

Ridging begins to slide east tonight as a cold front slowly
approaches from the west. While quiet weather should linger
through the night, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected
to occur ahead of the front.

After a mild morning, daytime highs are expected to climb into
the upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the
mountains. Tonight will be mild again with lows likely to be in
the 50s to 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 340 AM Thursday...

Sustained periods of dry periods are elusive in both the short
and long term periods.

The short term does start dry, with mid-upper level ridging
exiting ahead of a southern stream short wave trough and surface
cold front approaching from the west. There are some model
differences in whether these features roll into the area Friday
midday through evening, or Friday afternoon and night. The
latter would allow more dry time and daytime heating Friday,
while the former brings clouds, showers and thunderstorms in
earlier. The forecast sticks with the later timing.

Even so, some increase in cloud during the morning and midday,
and modest dew points of around 60 or even lower, will likely
contribute to modest instability Friday afternoon, with CAPE
less than a KJ/kg. Given modest low to mid level flow/shear,
thunderstorms are not expected to be especially strong, but they
can produce heavy downpours and gusty winds in the middle Ohio
Valley by late in the day.

As the system lifts northeastward through the area, the surface
cold front washes out, stranding the area in southerly flow of
very warm and increasingly humid air amid additional short wave
ripples in the mid-upper level southwest flow. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely Friday night through Saturday, and even
into Sunday. The nearly saturated atmosphere will not be that
unstable, but PW values could climb to 1.5 inches or higher, so
heavy downpours are a good possibility. However, the growing
vegetation and recent dry weather should minimize the potential
for high water.

By later in the day Sunday, the short wave trough exits, giving
way to ridging, lessening shower and thunderstorm coverage
Sunday afternoon, compared with Saturday afternoon, at least
across the middle Ohio Valley.

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as mid-upper level
ridging slowly works east of the area. While central guidance
highs Friday are 10 to nearly 15 degrees above normal for early
May, they are still comfortably below record highs for the date.
After a rain-cooled Saturday, perhaps not too unlike Tuesday,
highs moderate a bit on Sunday given decreasing shower and
thunderstorm coverage. Nights remain unseasonably mild for this
time of year.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 340 AM Thursday...

The weather pattern remains active in the long term, but with
increasing model uncertainty, particularly with timing. A full
new early morning long term discussion will be forthcoming
shortly.

As of 220 PM Wednesday...

A northern stream shortwave approaching late Saturday night
into Sunday morning will better focus precipitation chances, but
a modest increase in mid-level flow will also allow for faster
storm motions further limiting any threat for flash flooding.

Should see a brief break in showery activity late Sunday into early
Monday morning as transient ridging briefly builds ahead of warm
frontal passage during the day Monday bringing additional showers
and thunderstorms.

The weak flow regime comes to an end Wednesday as ridging over the
eastern half of the country shifts east allowing stronger upper
level flow to return to the region. This would yield increasing
concerns for strong to severe storms during the day Wednesday,  but
this will hinge heavily on eventual cold frontal timing.

Daytime highs remain modestly above normal values for this time of
the year, but with added Gulf influenced moisture overnight lows
will be within a few degrees of their record high minimums
overnight.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are currently present across the area, while high
level clouds move overhead. A few areas of fog could attempt to form
towards daybreak, though confidence in development is low. Sub-
VFR CIGs/VIS could be possible if fog does form early this
morning, then flight conditions would improve back to VFR
shortly after sunrise and remain VFR for the rest of the TAF
period.

Calm to light winds are expected to linger into the morning, then
winds remain light and variable for the rest of the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 05/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday,
and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JLB