-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191049
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.

OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH
A CONTINUED MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.


WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS SCATTER/LIFT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHICH
COULD IMPACT EKN.

NEAR-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG AND
REDUCED VSBYS ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 03Z MAINLY FOR LOWLAND WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR ACROSS SE OHIO AND MORE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG IN THESE AREAS.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. ONSET...COVERAGE...AND DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY AS WELL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50