Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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181 FXUS61 KRLX 220644 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 144 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably warm into the beginning of next week. Upper low rotates through the area Sunday and Monday, exiting Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 940 PM Saturday... An area of rain has developed over northeastern KY and is moving northeastward. Have updated the forecast to account for this area. Have also delayed the arrival of precipitation Sunday morning based on the latest models. As of 210 PM Saturday... Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today and through Sunday. Even with mid and upper level clouds overspreading the region we have still seen widespread temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Generally, most of the area will remain dry through tonight as short wave passes just to our east. However, model guidance is still uncertain with meso guidance bringing measurable precip across the entire CWA, while the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF keep QPF along the Eastern Mountains. Current thinking is that the decent mid level instability is making meso models overdo QPF amounts. Based on forecast soundings it is very dry below 10K feet so likely we will see some very light rain or sprinkles in the Ohio Valley and the Lowlands as most of the returns currently on Radar is falling as VIRGA. I have kept some slight chance PoP in the Lowlands, but expecting very little in the way of any rainfall. Low level moisture is a little more intact across the Eastern Mountains and have left chance PoP here, but again the bulk of the forcing is to our east and any measurable rainfall is likely to hug our border with Blacksburg`s CWA. Another stronger upper trough ahead of the closed upper low will lift over our region through tomorrow and likely spread showers from south to north starting late in the morning. Guidance is in fairly good agreement with having this first wave through the area in the afternoon with a lull in the action before the more robust closed low arrives late tomorrow night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Saturday... A deep and strong mid latitude cyclone will cross south of the area Monday night into Tuesday.trough The consensus among synoptic models suggest the sfc low will cross the area west to east. The further south the trajectory of its center, more colder air will move in and the better probability to produce snow. With the current trajectory, even when ice will be present aloft, temperatures at H850 and sfc don`t cool down to below freezing. Therefore, kept liquid PCPN Sunday night into Monday. Once the parent low move east of the Appalachians, colder air in the back slash of the cyclone will allow for snow showers over the higher elevations northeast mountains Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence runs high allowing likely to categorical PoPs Sunday night and Monday. The flow remains from the north Tuesday bringing drier and fresh temperatures through mid week.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM Saturday... By wednesday, the flow turns southeast ahead of an approaching new low pressure system across the Great lakes with frontal boundaries affecting the area. This system will bring much colder air evident in H850 temperatures reaching minus 7 Thursday night. Sfc temperatures will drop below freezing allowing liquid PCPN to transition to all snow Thursday night and Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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06Z Sunday thru 06Z Monday... As of 115 AM Sunday... Very active weather pattern this period, with bands of rain rotating northward across the area as an upper low approaches from the west. For this morning, while the rain has ended for the time being, quite variable conditions will be the rule. There will be variable VFR clouds, except IFR ceilings on east facing slopes of the WV mountains affecting BKW. Where clouds break and winds stay calm, IFR river valley fog will occur through 13Z, affecting mainly EKN and PKB. After 13Z look for a band of generally light rain showers to lift northward thru the area today. Expect prevailing VFR conditions. This band will weaken as it gets into northern portions later this afternoon. However, more widespread rain showers will overspread the area by 00Z, with conditions lowering to MVFR by 06Z. South to southeast winds 5 to 10KTS today with higher mountain gusts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... Medium, except low with fog and timing of precipitation. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not form at more sites late tonight. Timing and location of southeast upslope clouds late tonight could vary, in addition to timing the rain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY L H M M M M M M M L M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR in rain and fog Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV

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