Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051825 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W. FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS MIXES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD. STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP. THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016- 018-024>029-033>038. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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