Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311014 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 514 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WV DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY 12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOWS CENTER. MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK SAT...MAINLY N. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MON MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW

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