Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050754 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 254 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses today. Low pressure crosses Tuesday. Weak high pressure crosses Wednesday. A cold front crosses early Thursday, followed by much colder weather into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Monday... Deep layer moisture moved east of the forecast area overnight, as the causative upper level short wave trough and surface cold front push east of the area. Precipitation had diminished to very light rain and drizzle, which will taper off from west to east early this morning. Westerly flow behind the cold front, actually a bit gusty overnight, was eroding the CAD wedge, and any freezing rain or freezing drizzle over the very high terrain will be gone by daybreak, so the advisory could likely be allowed to expire at its 6 AM expiration time. Otherwise any lingering drizzle in the mountians after daybreak should be gone by late morning, and high pressure crossing this afternoon should break the clouds up as the inversion lowers. Higher clouds will lower and thicken tonight, as the next low pressure system approaches from the southwest. This system originates from a closed upper level low over northern Mexico early this morning. It ejects into TX today and then dampens into an open wave as it lifts through the lower MS and then TN valleys tonight. This will cause rain to quickly overspread the forecast area toward dawn Tuesday. Timing of the onset is slower compared with previous runs, so the forecast area remains dry into this evening and all but the far south probably dry through midnight. As the surface low pressure system approaches, a CAD wedge will develop toward dawn Tuesday. That raises the possibility of freezing rain over the higher terrain, just beneath the inversion, where temperatures drop to just below freezing by dawn Tuesday. Updated temperatures and dew points through tonight via a blend of near term guidance, with not much change from previous aside higher values early on. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Monday... The active weather pattern continues in the short term period. Precipitation returns to the CWA on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough and attendant surface low lifts northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico region towards the area. Good lift/ascent on Tuesday, along with above normal PW values, will result in a good soaking rain for much of the CWA. There still exists the potential for freezing rain through early Tuesday afternoon across Randolph and Pocahontas counties as the potential for near or below freezing temperatures at the surface exists, along with increasing southeasterly flow. Depending on timing of system, may need to address the situation with a freezing rain advisory. Will highlight this in the HWO. In addition, could be a bit breezy at times on Tuesday particularly across higher terrain, but overall, no headlines expected. The low and associated cold front will push east of the CWA Tuesday evening, with decreasing precipitation as it does so. Will likely transition to -dz across much of the area Tuesday evening as deeper moisture is lost. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Monday... Wednesday looks to be dry and cool, with high pressure nudging in from the west. However, the weather will become colder by Thursday and Friday, as an upper level trough deepens across the eastern U.S.and Canada. Temperatures will steadily fall throughout the day on Thursday, with light rain and snow showers developing on Thursday as favorable northwesterly flow develops off the Great Lakes. At least light accumulations will be possible in favored upslope areas in the mountains. -shsn expected to continue across the higher terrain through at least Friday night in nwly flow. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 100 AM Monday.... The weather had dried out along and west of the Ohio River as of 1 AM, and light rain and drizzle will diminish east of the Ohio River from west to east overnight, as a weak cold front pushes east. Drizzle will linger in the mountains into Monday morning, but any overnight freezing rain or drizzle across higher terrain, above 3000 or 3500 feet, should be gone by daybreak Monday. Low MVFR to IFR stratus deck will persist into Monday, with IFR ceilings most prevalent and persistent in the mountains. MVFR visibilities in and near the mountains will tend to improve through early Monday morning, although higher ridges may be obscured by stratus. Drier air associated with high pressure crossing Monday afternoon will result in clearing and VFR conditions. High clouds will start to lower and thicken from the south Monday night, as the next low pressure system approaches. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR VS IFR ceilings may vary overnight and Monday morning. May have the visibilities in TAFs too high into Monday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/05/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L H H L L H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M L L L M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in rain on Tuesday, and in possible snow showers, mainly in the mountains, Thursday through Thursday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for WVZ523-524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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