Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220156 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 956 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WAVERING WARM FRONT...AND A SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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02Z UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN KY, SOUTHWESTEN WV, AND DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN VA. A STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS COMPLEX WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD THE RAIN FALL OVER THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER RAIN...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE THE AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER. PROFILES ARE SOGGY WITH PWATS HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND IN VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DRIER REGIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AREA. STILL HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS BLENDED IN FROM CONSENSUS AND INHERITED NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS. KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AS THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A PUFF OF WIND AND SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED. MORE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE COULD LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW...WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUD MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN CODED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H L L L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-024-025-033-034. OH...NONE. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...30/LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...LS

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