Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051515 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1115 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION AS OF 3 AM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND AN UPPER LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND RAIN WILL PUSH BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PULL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TODAY IF A PERSISTENT ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME WATER WATER ISSUES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY LOW. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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15Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT IMPROVING IN WESTERN AREAS AFTER 00Z...INCLUDING HTS AND PKB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS...BUT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IMPROVING TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z AT HTS AND PKB...ELSEWHERE MVFR/IFR CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 12 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV/MPK

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