-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.

THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.

HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SINCE 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AND
IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
     ESPECIALLY S. IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.

A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00 UTC. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTHEAST....THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO END.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:


OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING.  CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH