Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251745 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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130 PM UPDATE... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. 1030 AM UPDATE... FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VAD WINDS AT 925 MB BLOWING A BIT STRONGER AT 08Z...THAN WAS FIGURING. KRLX FOR EXAMPLE WAS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BUT STILL FIGURING ON IT TO BE WEAKENING THROUGH DAWN. HAVE AREAS OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES...MOSTLY FROM SUTTON AREA ON S AND SW TO THE TUG FORK BORDER WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME EVAPORATING/ SHRINKING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS STILL POSSIBLE AT 13 TO 14Z IN THESE WESTERN SLOPES AREAS. OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...ALSO FIGURING ON PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...THEN LIFTING A BIT SOONER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. FURTHER WEST AND NORTH...IN THE COOLER AIR...MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG WATERWAYS 11-12Z. HAVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT MSL TODAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY...FIGURING ON LIMITED MIXING...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS UPWARDS IN THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. DEW POINTS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STILL LOWER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. PICTURING A FAIRLY PLEASANT LATE JULY FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING IN OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BOUNDARY LAYERS WINDS START TO INCREASE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD...INDICATING A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE PATTERN UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TRANSITIONING INTO A MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. ONE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...DRAGGING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET STAYS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIME. WILL PUT LOWER CHANCE POPS NORTH SATURDAY...AND KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE QUITE STORMY AND WET...AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS FROM A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY 850 MB JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PER SPC OUTLOOK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DRAG HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...IF THE ANTICIPATED MCS`S DROP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA PER 1000-500 MB THICKNESS ORIENTATION...THAT WOULD DRASTICALLY LESSEN THE RAIN AMOUNTS FOR OUR AREA. THUS...WILL STICK TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE. THIS WILL STILL WARRANT MENTION OF POSSIBLE WATER PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS. MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...WITH PRECIP DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FUSED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 15Z SAT. CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW- SCT FLAT CUMULUS DECK OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AT ABOUT 3KFT-4KFT AGL...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME IFR IN FOG MAY FORM 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ELKINS. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS POINT THAT IT WILL BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH DURING THE DAY...MEDIUM OVERNIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG/REDUCED VIS MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB/50 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...50

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