Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290207 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1007 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DYING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SUPERCELL WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HALL...AS IT RODE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. AS OF 715 PM...NO REPORTS OF WATER ISSUES IN THE CWA YET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO. DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO. AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW. HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME. HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING. THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT BRIEF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHEN LOW CEILINGS WILL FORM...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCRW TO KBKW...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. IN AREAS WHERE LOW STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP...COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE IFR FOG...GENERALLY SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND LOWER VSBY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...SL

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