Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281923 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES. SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT... FCST RECORD DATE BKW 15 17 1966 CRW 19 22 1966 GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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