Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271746 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses late today and this evening. Weak high crosses Friday morning. A front sags into the area and then retreats this weekend. A stronger cold front crosses Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Thursday... Cold front will pass through CWA this afternoon and evening with associated convection pushing east of the mountains by around 06Z. Moderate instability and shear profiles support linear convection with gusty winds being the main threat. However, up until now, cloud cover has been suppressing sfc heating, so much of the development that we have seen so far has been forced by convergent airflow, especially over central and eastern KY, where visible satellite imagery depicting numerous CU cloud streaks aligned with the mean flow. Expect precipitation associated with these streaks to continue to track east into the evening. After some clearing for the overnight hours, expect a dose of fog along the rivers and in elevated valley as the boundary layer decouples. High pressure settles in on Friday after warm front lifts north of the region with a warming trend. For temps went with a blend of the short term models and kept the idea previous official forecast was carrying.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 545 AM Thursday... High pressure Friday, with dry and warmer conditions, with warm frontal boundary lifting north across the region. The warm frontal boundary will linger across the Ohio Valley during the weekend, with periods of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across parts of southeast Ohio, with heavy downpours expected. In addition, some of the storms could be on the strong side late Friday night/early Saturday, with strong winds the primary threat, particularly across western zones. A slight risk is in place across parts of northeast KY, with a marginal risk across western 1/3 of CWA. Warm frontal boundary will continue to lift north over the weekend as upper trough across central U.S. continues to deepen. Showers and thunderstorms, along with increasing heat and humidity can be expected over the weekend as a result. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 545 AM Thursday... Cold frontal boundary associated with the system will push through the region Monday and Monday night, with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be heavy at times. Still a bit too early to pinpoint/determine any severe threat. Behind the front, cooler and unsettled weather takes hold for Tuesday, followed by another system by mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Thursday... Through this evening there will be bands of convection moving through the forecast area. Will see mostly VFR condition with MVFR and isold IFR in vicinity of any showers as a cold front pushes through the area. Expect gusty winds ahead of front into this evening and stronger gusts near convection. Expect most precipitation to exit east by around 06Z with VFR for the overnight. However, a moist boundary layer remains in place and expect IFR in stratus in fog, especially along rivers and elevated valley to develop from 09Z to 12Z. Cig and Vsby values improve Friday as high pressure build in. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and storms, and associated MVFR or worse conditions, may vary into this evening. Formation and then breakup of MVFR stratocu behind the cold front tonight may vary, as may fog formation late. Fog formation may depend upon dissipation of stratocu in the mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H L H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR fog possible Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KMC

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