-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 160550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND STALLS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES
SOUTH. NEW FRONT APPROACHES NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS/WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF PERRY
COUNTY OHIO. LINE SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH INTO THAT AREA OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
NR 02Z FRONT BECOMING MORE EAST TO WEST...FROM EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE PA TO NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TO NEW PHILADELPHIA TO MUNCIE
INDIANA. FRONT SLOWING DOWN IN OHIO NOW. FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH PKB OR CKB.

MOISTURE PLUME TAKING THE LONG ROAD INTO THE FRONT...FROM
SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THEN EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.  DEW
POINTS ACTUALLY LOWER IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

DESPITE SUNSET...STILL THINK SHOWERS CAN FORM ALONG THAT MOISTURE
PLUME AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THEN ADVECT INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR. YET...FURTHER
SOUTH...WAS SLOWER INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS.

DESPITE DECREASING SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STIR OVERNIGHT.  INCREASED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS...DESPITE THE SLOWER
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

STILL HARD TO FIGURE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.  WE STILL HAVE THE MAXIMUM POP AXIS OF 60 PERCENT
RUNNING FROM NEAR JACKSON COUNTY OHIO TO RANDOLPH COUNTY...WITH ONLY
20 POPS IN SW VIRGINIA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THIS
WEEKEND. MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD THEN LIFTS NORTH BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
THE DIRTY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SOME FORM OF EMBEDDED WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE
UPPER RIDGE....SOME INSTABILITY...AND MODEST QPF. PREFER TO FOCUS ON
THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS.

THIS SCENARIO ARGUES FOR INCLUSION OF AT LEAST SOME LOWER POPS WITH
THE MEANDERING FRONT FRIDAY...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIFTING FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GO WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL POP REGIME...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. IN ANY CASE...LOOKS TO BE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE AID OF HEATING. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE MODEL TRENDS OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOMING THE EASTERN ANCHOR OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK...WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND HAVE THE BEST
POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COLUMBUS OHIO. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENING. TOUGH CALL ON
EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT BUT WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09Z AT PKB AND 10Z-11Z FURTHER
EAST AT CKB-EKN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS LINE WILL NOT MAKE
IT SOUTH TO HTS OR CRW. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR VIS WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY SHOULD A STRONGER SHOWER/STORM DIRECTLY IMPACT A
TERMINAL.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE VALID PERIOD
WITH PERHAPS INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS MAINLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE A
BREEZY AS YESTERDAY...AS IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG THE FRONT IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS
COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECASTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 05/16/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINDER OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...50