Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291855 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON. STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT. SCATTERED UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A W-E AXIS. WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG WINNING OUT INITIALLY. WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU AGAIN WED. MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE RETURNS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA WILL KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z. THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER. HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN. THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL MORNING TO MIX OUT. WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE ALLOWED TO FIRE UP. LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON WED. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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