Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 091649 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ADDED WIRT AND RITCHIE TO THE EXISTING WARNING SINCE THOSE COUNTIES HAVE LOWER WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA COMPARED TO COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. DEEPEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL LIKELY OVER OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS...AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY FOR SEVERAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...RATHER THAN ENDING AT 7 AM. TOTALS OVER 36 TO 48 HOURS COULD NEAR A FOOT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. SECONDARY MAX IN SNOW FIGURED MOSTLY ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN ROUTE 50 AND NORTH IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOSTLY 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FROM THE PREDAWN HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO PBZ AREA...BUT ANOTHER 500 VORT MAX IN SOUTHERN OHIO SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL WV LATE TODAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY EPISODE WAS. INSTEAD...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...THIS IS ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY EPISODE. BUT RATHER ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU. A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT. A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTOOK THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TODAY AND THEN MODERATE W TO NW TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>008-011-013>016-018-020-024>036. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ037>040-046-047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-010-017-019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009- 010-017-019. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083- 086-087. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066- 067-075-076-084-085. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003- 004.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.