Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281906 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SOUTHERN MOISTURE BRUSHES AREA MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL BE TRACKING ANOTHER S/W TROF TO CROSS ON MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF IT...TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST. FEEL LIKE THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO SW VA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF TROF GIVEN MEAGER DYNAMICS AND LACK OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NE KY/S WV...SLIDING INTO SE WV AND SW VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO SHOW SOME SUN ACROSS NE KY/SE OH IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ENTIRELY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLANDS AS COLUMN DRIES OUT WITH TROF PASSAGE. ROLLED WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS A BASE FOR TEMPS...INCORPORATING A 50/50 BLEND OF MET/MAV. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY CONTROLS THE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE THAT PUSHES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOISTURE STARVED...SO GENERATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THAT SAID...THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SMALL POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING AMID VARYING DEGREES OF HI CLOUDS. A S/W TROF APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA HEADING INTO MONDAY ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SW VA. HOWEVER...CHANCES TO LOW FOR EVEN A VCSH MENTION IN TAFS. TOUGH TO FIGURE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FOG FORECAST. FELT MOST OF THE MID/HI CLOUDS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS...THUS KEEPING KEKN OUT OF DENSE FOG. ELSEWHERE ENOUGH VISIBLE STARS FOR SOME DENSE FOG AT KHTS/KPKB/KCRW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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