Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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733 FXUS61 KRLX 171109 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 609 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure passes south of the area later today through Thursday. Southwest flow of milder air Friday through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. Cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 605 AM Wednesday... Forecast on track, as the accumulating snow exits the northern mountains, and the last of the winter weather advisories for snow expire. As of 425 AM Wednesday... Winter weather advisories for snow all gone save for the northern mountains, where snow is likely still accumulating a bit. The system moves off the the east, and high pressure builds toward the area today. However, low level moisture with temperatures in thee teens below zero C in the cloud layer spells flurries until almost the last cloud is gone. As the high starts to slide south of the area tonight, the low level gradient actually picks up, and westerly upslope flow may lead to snow showers in the northern mountains tonight. These winds will combine with temperatures in the single digits to produce wind chills in the teens below zero over the higher terrain, and wind chill advisories have been issued there for tonight into Thursday morning. Winds are mainly NAM-based, with the RUC momentum transfer algorithm employed for gusts on the ridges tonight. Temperatures and dew points are a blend of MOS and near term guidance. Snowshoe drops to -2 tonight with wind gusts to 32 kts and wind chills as low as -23. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 425 AM Wednesday... Overall, short term forecast period remains consistent with dry weather and milder temperatures. Precipitation returns to the forecast area by Saturday in the form of rain showers, as a warm front associated with a strengthening low pressure system over the Plains moves north across the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 425 AM Wednesday... Cold front associated with aforementioned low will sweep across the forecast area on Monday, with rain changing to snow. Good moisture fetch associated with system will result in decent rain totals, with qpf values around 0.75 inches or more area wide. Any lingering precipitation will change over to light rain and snow showers Monday night, with light accumulations possible. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 605 AM Wednesday... Some IFR in lingering light snow and stratus in northern WV and the mountains this morning, with MVFR visibility in light snow showers possible elsewhere. MVFR stratocu will break up at times this afternoon, but then become more persistent this evening, with flurries or light snow showers possible again in the northern mountains, as westerly flow increases. CRW and HTS should see the MVFR stratocu break up in ernest this afternoon, with other sites breaking up overnight tonight, perhaps not until near dawn Thursday in the mountains. Surface flow will be light west to northwest beneath light north flow aloft today that become moderate northwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR in snow may or may not occur at northern sites and in mountains this morning. Timing of MVFR conditions may vary, as may IFR status in the mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 01/17/18 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L M H M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L L L M M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M H L L AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... None. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday for WVZ520-522>524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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