Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 042347 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 747 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY... STALLED FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 00Z... LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR WORSE FOG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...EXPECT AN IFR STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...INCLUDING BKW...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON FOG. ANY FOG WILL SCT OUT FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA SPREADING AHEAD OF IT DURING SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA AND WV. BKW LOOKS TO BE THE MVFR TERMINAL IN SHOWERS BY 18Z...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG REMAINING VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS IS OVERNIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN FORECAST. AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV/30

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