Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031526 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1022 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LETTING MUCH OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM. 645 AM UPDATE... PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z. STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE 50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. ANY VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NORTH WILL END BY 18Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY 09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047. OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076. KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JMV/30

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