Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280531 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 131 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WITH EVEN COLDER AIR TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NEAR 0140Z...REMOTE SENSING ON VAD HAS 25 KNOTS OF WIND ABOVE RLX AT 925 MB...WITH 40 KNOTS ABOVE ILN. YET...SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL WV ARE STILL TRYING TO DECOUPLE. SO LIKELY SOME 10 TO 15 DEG TEMPERATURE VARIATION BETWEEN SOME EXPOSED HILLTOPS VS HOLLOWS OVERNIGHT. SO INCREASED MINIMUM FOR SOME HILLTOPS IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE WIDER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS AOA 14 THSD FT OVERNIGHT. NO BIG BIG CHANGES ON TIMING OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL LIKE OUR RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BASED ON THE 250 MB RIGHT REAR JET SUPPORT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND IS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z WED. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ON THE FRONT COULD PACK SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. AS THE SUN SETS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA WILL SET UP WITH DRYER AIR ON THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WENT WITH WPC WITH A FEW CHANGES. SYN OPTICALLY...HAVE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY. SOME TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT. DID GO WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS THAN WPC FOR THIS TIME FRAME. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -6C TO -8C. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE UPSLOPE TYPE IN NW FLOW...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BL REMAINING WELL MIXED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KEKN WHERE TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD BECOMING LESS ON LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AFTER 18Z...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST...REACHING HTS- PKB CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 22Z AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. INCLUDING MVFR IN SHOWERS AND VCTS...THE EXCEPTION BEING PKB WHERE TSRA WILL BE MENTIONED. CEILINGS LOWERING NEAR FRONT INTO THE 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN RANGE AS FRONT MOVES THRU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG OH RIVER BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN STRATUS AND LINGERING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SOME IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JS/KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KMC

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