Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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586 FXUS61 KRLX 222346 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 745 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure passes south of the area overnight and Sunday. Weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses Sunday night, with gusty winds in the mountains. Stronger system crosses late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Saturday. Lowered lows a tad via blending in MET/MAV, and added patchy frost far south, where surface ridging should allow valley winds to decouple. Forecast otherwise on track. As of 135 PM Saturday... Most of the low stratus has broken up, but only to be replaced by a cumulus deck in the cold air advection that is in full swing. Checking out the webcams from the northern mountains, it looks like any lingering rain/snow showers have ended. Surface high pressure passes to our south overnight, but also have a weak 500mb ripple passing to our north. This could keep a cloud around...especially in upslope regions through much of the night. Models trying to spit out some QPF, but did not include any POPs as the low levels are very dry. With some flow and clouds remaining overnight, did not include any frost with temperatures bottoming out in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s. Went with a slightly non-diurnal temp curve overnight for the higher elevations where 850mb temps start increasing after midnight. Sunday should be a nice day. With high pressure sliding east, will get some warm air advection, and when combined with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will recover nicely from todays chill.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Saturday... A generally dry cold front will cross Sunday night into Monday morning giving some gusty winds to the mountains. Flow will likely be strong enough Sunday night to prevent fog formation...however we could see widespread fog overnight Monday with weak flow and mostly clear skies expected overnight as high pressure builds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM Saturday... An upper level ridge continues through at least mid week for fairly quiet weather. Models bring an organized system through the area Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF suggest this could be a slow, wet system while the GFS moves it through fairly quickly with less QPF. Went with the 50th percentile of guidance on prob. of precip which gives values in the range of 50 - 60%. Zonal flow with ripples will keep a fairly active weather pattern around through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM Saturday... High pressure passes south of the area overnight and Sunday. This provides dry weather and, with sufficient flow across the area, on the north side of the high, also precludes fog. Most of the stratocu dissipated at sunset, but some will linger across the north and in the mountains overnight and into Sunday. Bases should stay above 3 kft except for the higher ridges. Surface winds will be calm to light and variable in the valleys overnight but northwest and still a bit gusty over hill and ridge tops. Winds on Sunday will increase to near 10 kts from the southwest. Moderate northwest flow aloft overnight will back to the west on Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. Missing. AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/MPK NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.