Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160740 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 240 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in behind the front today and tonight. Next low pressure system late Saturday/Saturday night. High pressure Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 235 AM Friday... High pressure influences building in from the upper high plains will assist in pushing the cold front through the region over the next few hours, and finally taking the axis of more persistent rain to the south southeast through the mountains. Bulk of the shower activity will be out by 00Z Saturday, lingering only in the mountains, and completely gone well before the end of the near term. Given the cold air advection, used a non diurnal temperature trend through 00Z Saturday with falling values all day and a Friday morning Max T for most locations. Flow aloft remains progressive with the next cyclogenesis occurring in the southern stream from an ejecting open wave over the southwestern states. Will only see the very front end of this in the near term with some overrunning providing very low chance mixed precipitation while the column moistens from the top down. Temperatures by 12Z Saturday will be below freezing again area wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... By Friday night, maybe just a few upslope snow showers across the mountains, but overall things will be fairly quiet. Rain will push back into the area on Saturday as another wave of low pressure moves east. Guidance is in fairly good agreement now with keeping the heaviest rain with this across SW Virginia and Eastern West Virginia. These areas were recently hit hard just last weekend with over 3 inches of rain, so although this system should only drop a half inch to an inch of rain, it could still cause some problems due to the wet antecedent conditions. Also, in the mix with this system will be the cold air hanging around in the Northern West Virginia Mountains for wintry precipitation to fall. Expecting to see a wintry mix with possibly just all snow in the higher elevations. 2 to 4 inches of snow is not out of the question for the highest terrain and some icing with a freezing rain/sleet mix will also be possible. High pressure builds back in over the area on Sunday and brings at least a brief period of dry conditions to end the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Forecast guidance really diverges after Sunday. Ensemble and operational guidance does keep on the periphery of a Bermuda High pressure, with very warm conditions expected with deep southwesterly return flow. This will also keep plenty of moisture readily available in the area, but timing and tracks of several waves next week will determine how wet the forecast is. GFS is currently much more active and wet than the Euro through the week, with several waves pushing through the area. With the uncertainty, have leaned heavily on a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for the long range forecast. Will have to continue to monitor as we head into next week, as the pattern does suggest that more heavy rain and flooding could be possible. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1240 AM Friday... Line of convective showers now pushing into the Ohio River. Expecting strong gusts with this line upon passage, but below 40kts. Brief IFR likely at the onset of the rain for some locations, but otherwise, winds should keep visibilities MVFR in rain without mist or fog forming simultaneously. Ceilings down to IFR on passage of the cold front in the cold air advection. Watch for the wind shifts with the frontal passage as well. Current winds strong enough at the surface that LLWS should not be an issue in the mild southwesterly flow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes will likely vary and is dependent on heavy rainfall. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 02/16/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M L L M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H M L M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H L M H H M H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L H M L L M H L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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