Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 280608 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 208 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST...FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO NEAR NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
200 AM UPDATE... FCST LARGELY ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... A RARE LATE JUNE EARLY EVENING WITH WIND IN THE HILLS AND HOLLOWS OF THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT 00Z...FRONT HAS PASSED EKN TO BKW LINE. THAT NOTICEABLE WIND HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. POTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MOSTLY NORTH OF I-64 WITH THE COOL POOL AND LOWER CLOUDS. HOW FAR SOUTH TO CARRY THE OVERCAST WRAP AROUND LOWER CLOUDS IS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE. WILL TRY TO HAVE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH LESS CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LIFT AND THIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATER MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS...DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AND RACES ACROSS THE OHO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY AND ACTS MUCH LIKE THIS FIRST FRONT...KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE. DURING THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM...SO FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MODERATE SIDE NEXT WEEK...AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WAS RESULTING IN MVFR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE CIGS WILL MIX ABOVE 3 KFT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATOCU...NEAR THE TUG FORK TO STARTTHE PERIOD...WILL EDGE NEWD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE SUN SETS SUNDAY EVENING...ANY CLOUDS REMAINING OVER NRN WV WILL BREAK UP. THIS MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO BEGIN FORMING BY 06Z MON. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. W TO SW SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL BECOME W ON SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MODERATE W TO NW ON SUNDAY...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THINKING SOUTHERN WV ON SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL. SO CLOUD AMOUNTS COULD VARY ESPECIALLY FOR BKW AND POINTS SOUTH. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO TEND TO VARY. AFTER O6Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.