Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222350 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 650 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Nearly stationary front meanders about the area through the end of the week, as surface waves pass. Areas of significant rainfall possible into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Tuesday... Low pressure wave exiting today has pushed the southwest to northeast oriented front southeastward into the Appalachians, and it will push through the remainder of the area in its wake. In light flow behind the front in cool, moist low level air, low clouds, along with areas of fog and drizzle are likely to form tonight. The next wave will push the front back northward, through the area, on Friday, especially with the help of daytime mixing. there is also the chance for showers on the north side of the front tonight into Friday, even likely northern tier early Friday morning, on developing nocturnal warm advection north of the front, which increases with the approach of the next wave. That wave is likely to bring rain to the middle Ohio Valley again Friday, mainly west of the Ohio River. Figuring a half to three quarters of an inch of rain there Friday, which will be just enough to keep Ohio streams up, or bring them back up, out of their banks in some cases. More importantly, this is yet another round that will add water to the headwaters of the Ohio River across the upper Ohio Valley, where higher amounts will fall. Temperatures fine tuned to reflect the baroclinic zone across the area through tonight. That zone then shift north of the area, with the front, on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM Thursday... Expect significant hydrologic issues in low lying areas, streams, and creeks, eventually leading to mainstem river flooding, especially late Saturday and early Sunday onwards. Main weather headline is that a surface front remains draped across the Ohio Valley for most of the period before moving east on Sunday, as stronger a system pushes in from the west. This will lead to several periods of significant precipitation falling in the upper Ohio River Valley through the weekend. After a brief respite Friday night, the next series of waves will traverse the front Saturday, then another one on Saturday evening, and then again early Sunday morning. For the wave tracking across late Saturday night, Sunday morning, there will be strong mid and low level jet support, and dynamics combined with copious amount of moisture available in the atmospheric column, should lead one last round of rain falling across southern and eastern Ohio as well as northern West Virginia. This last round will feature the heaviest rainfall Saturday night and Sunday morning. Staying close to RFC and WPC guidance for overall forecast precipitation amounts. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Thursday... 5h ridge with surface high pressure will lead to a drying trend. Next system works across the southern plains associated with the southern stream for Thursday. Followed model blends for temps and pops for long term. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Thursday... A quasi stationary frontal boundary dissects the area diagonally from northwest to southeast. There is a tight temperatures and moisture gradient across the area. IFR ceilings and visibilities affecting most sites starting the TAF period. Previous rainfall, a tight temperatures gradient bringing cold air over high humidity areas, and light to calm flow will produce IFR/LIFR fog over the lowlands and northeast mountains through the early morning hours. At BKW, notorious northerly flow could produce low level stratus and possible IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight. Light or calm flow overnight will become moderate and gusty Friday afternoon. The next wave will push the front back north of the area on Friday. MVFR in rain showers is possible early Friday morning for northern sites, as that warm front pushes north. Conditions will improve to VFR behind the warm front later Friday morning, except for MVFR hanging on along and west of the Ohio River, and in at least the northern WV mountains, into Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Periods of improvement conditions could occur. MVFR/IFR conditions may vary through the TAF period, especially with the low cloud / fog forecast overnight into Friday morning.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR possible at times in showers into the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ

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