Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011534 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1134 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSTABLE TODAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WAVE CROSSES TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARD END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BREAKS IN CLOUDS OFFER A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIS < 4 AND CAPE > 1000 J/KG AND EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORMS TRAIPSING ACROSS AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY LAST NIGHTS RAIN. SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN MONDAY MORNING. BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SHOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BUT STILL A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. HOWEVER...I CONTINUED THE TREND IN INCREASING POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS AS WELL MONDAY EVENING. LARGE UPPER LOW STARTS TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND TROUGHING AXIS WILL MOVE OVER US TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONCUR ON A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH EARLIER DIFFERENCES IN LATITUDE AND DEPTH GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE INSTIGATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PUSHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. STILL HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FRONT AS THE AIR AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A CHANCE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADDED. ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SOMEWHERE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. IT THEN MEANDERS SLOWLY FROM PA TO THE DELMARVA / JERSEY SHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH THE LOW UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ON NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO AT LEAST MIX IN ACROSS THE VERY HIGHEST TERRAIN WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE WOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST...EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT SOME AFTERNOON CHARGE SEPARATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BENEATH THE LOW UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES IN EARLY MAY. THE LARGE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMOTING OVERNIGHT DRYING. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT IN LIGHT OF INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES EARLIER ON WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BLENDS AND ACCEPTED...AND A GUIDANCE BLEND WAS USED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR EXCEPT UNDER SHOWERS WHERE IFR IS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE INTENSE. HIGH LOW LEVEL RH MAY POSE A THREAT FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD VARY. HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE IFR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING TO PUT IN TAF. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JW

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