Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240738 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 238 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 930 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. 550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 04Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT 850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN 500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO FIGURE. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOGETHER WITH A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES. OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY 09Z...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF WINDS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 11/24/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040. OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...ARJ

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