Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200546 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak upper level impulse brings some showers, perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm, today. Weak high pressure builds late week through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 140 AM Wednesday... An upper level disturbance is driving showers across the Ohio River Valley early this morning. This feature will gradually move east today, with isolated to scattered showers possible across the entire forecast area. Also expecting some rumbles of thunder, but with no surface help convection is fully reliant on upper forcing. So other than brief downpours in a 1.5 inch precipitable water environment, no impactful thunderstorms expected. Any showers and storms should taper off after sunset tonight. Temperatures will continue to run a couple degrees above normal for both highs and lows. Blended in ECMWF MOS with only minor changes to previous forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Still the possibility of isold showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as weak impulses traverse the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this time of year, with foggy mornings continuing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Upper ridging will strengthen across the eastern U.S. during the period, with continued hot/above normal temperature conditions. Could be an isolated storm or shower over the higher terrain at times, but overall, period looks to be relatively dry, with light surface winds, and a continuation of foggy conditions in river valleys. A cold front will arrive by the middle of next week/end of the extended period, providing a greater chance for showers and storms. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Wednesday... Difficult forecast through early this morning with a mix of clouds and fog. Have all valley sites eventually getting into some IFR fog, however confidence is rather low on this due to the clouds. Obs may bounce around quite a bit. Any fog will dissipate 12Z-14Z with generally VFR expected today. Will have some isolated to scattered showers around, so could get brief restrictions if these pass over a TAF site. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low this morning then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary this morning. May need amendments to add MVFR to IFR in showers or storms this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H M M L L M H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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