Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260213 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1013 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes to the northwest on Sunday with showers and storms. Another system Monday night into Tuesday, and again late in the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1010 PM Saturday... Additional adjustments made to the POPs for Sunday, but the overall story is the same, including the timing of onset. As of 1220 PM Saturday... Quiet weather continues in the near term through tonight. It will remain very mild tonight as gradient winds pick up and a variably cloudy sky remains. The near vertically stacked low pressure currently over MS Valley will track into IL late tonight, putting the region in good upper level divergence. Closer to the surface, we expect a decaying band of storms will make a run toward western zones just after daybreak. The thinking is this should be void of thunder by the time it arrives such that just some light showers are expected as it pivots into the area. Behind this feature, there should be some drying in the mid levels advecting in for the afternoon as the stacked low makes a run MI with some recovery at the surface. As heating is maximized in the afternoon, expect showers and storms to develop in the afternoon. Some of these could be on the strong side along and north of the OH River and including northeast KY. Model soundings and NCAR ensembles suggest good shear with some low level helicity. Lacking is much in the way of instability given a fairly moist column. Having said that...given the dynamics involved and the shear...we do feel there is the potential for strong to possibly severe low topped convection in the aforementioned locations. Given the shear profile, there could also be some rotation in the more robust convection, particularly across southeast OH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM Friday... Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as a low pressure system moves north of the area. Models showing decent low level shear Sunday evening, although CAPE is marginal. Could not rule out a couple of severe storms in the western counties. The region stays in the warm sector as this system moves off to the northeast, allowing for mild weather to continue on Monday. Another system will provide showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 314 PM Friday... Behind a weak cold front, slightly cooler but mild temperatures can be expected for mid week. Models then show another system for the end of the week. There are large differences in the timing and placement of this system between the various models, leading to a low confidence forecast. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Saturday... Ceilings lower tonight, and southeasterly flows increase at the surface and in the low levels as well as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers and storms to commence after 12Z Sunday in waves through the day ahead of the front. Timing will be critical, as onset of showers and storms may produce brief IFR visibilities. In the warm sector, ceilings will tend to stay VFR until frontal passage beyond the TAF time. Some storms in the area Sunday could push severe limits. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need TEMPO IFR in storms Sunday.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night as the rain ends. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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