Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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512 FXUS61 KRLX 190017 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 817 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT MAT BE TEMPORARILY THWARTED BY A WAVE ON THURSDAY...BEFORE BUILDING IN IN ERNEST ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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815 PM UPDATE... FINE TUNED POPS TO KEY IN MAINLY ON BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF 00Z. THE LINE CLOSER TO THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OVERALL QUICKLY WANES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES/MIXES THROUGH TUE MORNING. PREV DISCN... SCATTERED POPCORN CONVECTION IS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOIST AIRMASS HEATS UP IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOTED OVER EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH...AS WEAK VORT FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THE LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS AND THE PROGRESSION OF FEATURES ACROSS TONIGHT. USED A RATHER BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO COVER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HAVE FRONT CROSSING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SPEED UP TIMING SLIGHTLY...BY AN HOUR OR TWO...NOT MUCH TO REALLY MAKE A CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TUESDAY OVER TODAYS HIGHS AS COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN...WITH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ZONAL FLOW FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE 520+ LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. WENT MAINLY WITH ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THEM BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...MIGRATES EAST AND TRIES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY MESSY FORECAST FOR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. HAVE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS EXPECT MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH. THERE REALLY ISN/T ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO FOCUS ON TO TIME THESE EVENTS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT CROSSES TUE...EARLY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ONE LAST LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WAS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER NEAR 00Z...AND WILL CROSS WV THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH NOTHING WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE WAS ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INDIANA / OHIO LINE...CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS LINE WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM OVERNIGHT E OF THE OHIO RIVER. MVFR STRATUS WILL ALSO FORM OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING STRATUS WILL THEN MIX HIGHER BEFORE MIXING OUT ALTOGETHER ON TUE. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO NW ON TUE. IT MAY STRENGTHEN AND BECOME JUST A BIT GUSTY TUE AFTERNOON. LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW ON TUE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND BREAK UP TUE MORNING MAY VARY. THERE MAY BE MORE IFR THAN FCST ON EITHER...ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/19/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H L L L L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H L L L L L L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUE NT INTO WED MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/KMC/TRM NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...TRM

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