Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251818 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 218 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST AS CLOUDS ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL YIELD A DRY FORECAST WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BESIDES BEING A TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST THE CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP...AND INHIBIT THE FOG FORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION LIFTS OUT THIS PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY THIS PERIOD. NIGHT TIME MINS WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SOME VFR CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH OF THIS DECK PERSISTS. EVEN THOUGH THE DECK IS VFR...IT SHOULD PREVENT DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS FOG FORMS OR NOT IS LOW IN MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT NE WV WILL HAVE THE STRATUS AND NOT FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MEDIUM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION AND DENSITY COULD VARY LATE TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JMV NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...FB

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