Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150553 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1253 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1015 PM UPDATE... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY LOW CLOUD BASES AND FG SHOW UP IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE W SLOPES. 700 PM UPDATE... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY DZ ON THE W SLOPES OF THE N MOUNTAINS. ALSO EXPECTING SOME FG ALL THE WAY DOWN THE W SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS THRU SW VA OVERNIGHT...WHERE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE E AND THEN SE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THIS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO ERADICATE THIS LOW STRATUS...FIRST ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV WHERE LOW TEMPS MAY DO A LAST MINUTE CRASH TO BLO FRZ. HRRR AND RUC ARE HINTING AT THIS. THINK FROM I64 CORRIDOR AND PTS N WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING MUCH TONIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE UPR 30S. SHOULD THE CLEARING WORK IN FASTER DURING THE PREDAWN...THEN CRW TO HTS WILL EXPERIENCE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND PSBL DENSE FG. THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS N AND W AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE SUN. MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR SE OH/N WV THOUGH. WITH DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW...INCORPORATED THE TYPICAL SPIKE IN TEMPS JUST E OF I79 CORRIDOR...GOING WELL INTO THE 50S...PERHAPS UPR 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 5H RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. WAA TO CONTINUE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIFT CLOUD LAYER SOME AND IT SHOULD ALSO LESSEN OUR CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE FORMATION WITH SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING OF OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. OUR FREEZING FOG-FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED. HAVE INVERSION LIFTING SOME ON MONDAY...ENOUGH TO BREAKUP TO 100 PERCENT VALUES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN OUR SKY GRIDS THE PAST FEW DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE WILL RAISE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SOME. BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE...SO WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ALLOWING RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HORIZONTAL FLOW ALOFT. H850 FREEZING LINE LIES SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE MINUS 5C DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES IN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONAL AFTERNOONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS TN AND KY INTO WV...TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY MIX OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT..AS THEY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME TIMING IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WV...WHILE THE ECMWF TRAJECTORY IS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONGER FORCING WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF AT H500 THAN THE GFS AND CMC FOR SATURDAY. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WV...AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AD HPC GUIDANCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKS UP AFTER 15Z WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER A LONG STINT BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR/LIFR THANKS TO FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY. RELIED ON THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. EKN/CKB/BKW COULD BOUNCE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE NIGHT BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. AN AMENDMENT OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED AT THESE LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER RETURNS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THE RETURN OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK AFTER 03Z FOR PKB/HTS. HAVE -SHRA COMING INTO HTS AT 05Z...BUT BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST FOR PKB AND THE TERMINALS FURTHER TO THE EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE IN THE MOUNTAINS/CKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/15/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L M M H L L M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ/RPY NEAR TERM...KMC/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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