Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 181206 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 806 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
8 AM UPDATE...UPDATES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON ALL MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL RUN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND. MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...RPY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.