Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 012359 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 659 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AREAS OF PCPN CONTINUES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG SOUTHEAST OH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH LATER OVERNIGHT TAKING MOST PCPN EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORY FOR POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END. USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE CONCERN. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN SITES INCLUDING CKB TO THE NORTH WHILE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND AREAS OF MOSTLY RAIN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT BKW AND EKN...BUT EKN COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN CEILINGS TO IFR AFTER 02Z DUE TO INCOMING PCPN. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOW WIDESPREAD IFR AT MOST SITES TONIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.