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475
FXUS61 KRLX 100641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler weather for today into the weekend. The chance for rain
continues at times courtesy of crossing weather systems.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Friday...

A few stray showers are noted south and southeast of the
Charleston area, and a few hit-or-miss showers may continue
tonight across the mountains, but most activity has ended.
Models have hinted that some of the light shower activity noted
over north-central and NW Ohio could sneak into our northern
zones before sunrise, and this is reflected in the return of
some chance POPs, but overall no real impacts are expected.

Otherwise, more showers and perhaps a few t-storms are possible
from late morning through most of the afternoon hours. However,
the lower temps and instability expected today will likely
relegate the bulk of that activity to the higher terrain, where
the NW`ly winds will produce an upslope component for a bit of
added lift. Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
working into the region tonight will allow for a sharp drop-off
in rain chances and some clearing skies.

If the forecast for clearing skies pans out, night owls might
be able to catch some aurora activity tonight if they head away
from city lights to somewhere with a clear view of the northern
sky. Head to the Space Weather Prediction Center`s website for
more info on the G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov.

Back to terrestrial weather - Highs today are likely to be in
the 60s at lower elevations, and 50s in the mountains, a good 10
to 15 degrees cooler than Thursday. Lows tonight will range from
the mid 30s in the highest terrain to mid-40s in the Huntington
Tri-State area. With the clearing skies, sheltered valleys that
can decouple may get cooler, and we may need to add some patchy
fog to the forecast, depending on wind speeds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Precipitation ends from west to east Friday night as transient
ridging builds into the region ahead of a northern stream
disturbance approaching during the day Saturday.

With relatively cool air left in the wake of the Friday system along
with relatively early arrival of associated cloudiness, won`t
realize very much surface heating. Still, should be able to generate
some conditional instability, perhaps 500J/kg in the presence of
rather stout deep layer shear of 40 to 50KTs by Saturday afternoon.
With rather cool air aloft, graupel showers are likely, with some
stronger cores also possible yield strong to perhaps marginally
severe wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Ridging building into the region yields mainly dry conditions from
late Sunday afternoon through Monday. Deep southwesterly flow
associated with the next southern stream system will begin to advect
moisture back into the region Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Upper level forcing arriving late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday
morning will yield an uptick in precipitation coverage. Given the
low amplitude of this feature and varied model timing, confidence is
not especially high.

Transient ridging builds back into the region briefly Wednesday
before another system arrives Thursday.

Severe risk through this period appears low given a relatively weak
flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 SM Friday...

Shower activity has largely ended across the area, and the main
concern for the rest of the night into Friday morning will be
the lowering ceilings, with widespread MVFR and locally IFR
ceilings expected. Gradual improvement expected through the day
tomorrow, and skies should clear late in the TAF period for most
locations as high pressure builds into the region. A few more
thunderstorms are expected across the area late morning into the
afternoon, primarily affecting the higher terrain, with terminal
impacts most likely at EKN and BKW. Any thunderstorms could
produce localized strong turbulence. It will remain breezy from
the west and northwest through most of the period, though winds
are likely to drop off after 00z Sat.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling and visibility restrictions
may vary from forecast. Winds will fluctuate.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 05/10/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday morning w/
valley fog.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...FK