Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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548
FXUS61 KRLX 160609
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
109 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm
front through early morning. Cold front Tuesday night. Another
possible system to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

Area of mainly light rain continues to drift NE through the WV
mountains as a weak surface boundary meanders through. With
slight ridging aloft and little surface focus decreased POPs
some through the remainder of this morning. Still...cannot rule
out areas of light rain with the boundary still in the area.
There are still some areas with temperatures near freezing
across the far north...and ended up with some freezing rain or
drizzle for the next couple horus -- but not expecting any ice
accretion with marginal temperatures and relatively warm
ground. Will monitor for potential need for an SPS.

That same story lingers through much of today, with some light
rain possible -- especially across the northern CWA and
mountains -- but there should be `dry` time too. Temperatures
will once again be above normal.

As a surface low heads into the western Great Lakes tonight a
weak warm front slides through the Ohio River Valley. With some
support from a 500mb ripple/ vort max have POPs increasing late
this evening and tonight...with likely POPs for the Ohio River
Valley and northern WV after midnight. Expecting a warm night
tonight...if you can call 40s and 50s warm. Have a non-diurnal
trend after midnight as WAA picks up on the southerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

A band of showers in advance of an approaching cold front will move
across the area late Monday night into Tuesday. The weak cold front
itself should move through Tuesday night. Some cooler air is
expected behind the front on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

Models continue to have considerable differences in timing with
systems for the end of the week and into the weekend, although
agreeing on unseasonably warm weather. Therefore, forecast
confidence in precipitation chances at any particular time are low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM Monday...

Expecting mix of IFR and MVFR through sunrise...with the IFR
mainly across the south. Not a lot of confidence in this
forecast with models struggling to even depict current situation
well. Overall, have IFR ceilings across the south, with some fog
as well. Farther north, clouds have been struggling to lower so
keep mainly MVFR.

Any fog and low stratus should gradually dissipate through
mid morning, with MVFR to VFR expected for the bulk of the day
under southerly flow.

Rain moves back in tonight...especially across the west and
north. Held off on any MVFR until after valid TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low through morning then medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 01/16/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...

IFR possible Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ



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