Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 070527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING FRONT BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR MOVING ITS WAY IN...EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS SE CWA. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN OHIO...BUT NOT BRINGING MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NE CWA. DID PUT IN SOME LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHOWER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL HEAD TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. NEXT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LEANED TOWARD THE SREF ON POPS...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF SE OHIO AND INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. PWATS START THE DAY MONDAY AROUND 1.0-1.2
IN...INCREASING TO 1.5-1.8 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY
IN SE OHIO. SHEAR IS MARGINAL...BUT WITH CAPE APPROACHING 2000
J/KG COULD GET SOME TALLER STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. BLENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL
BE OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY BE
MERGING OF A DYING FRONT WITH REMNANTS OF PRIOR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FROM THE MIDWEST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THIS...MAINLY JUST ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ON
TUESDAY.

THE SECOND FRONT IS ROOTED IN A MORE ROBUST UPPER TO MID LEVEL
VORT MAX FOUND IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD
BRING THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED
POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST OPENING
UP MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES
INTO THURSDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD THEN RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS...MAINLY TO THE
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WERE LOWERED A
DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD
MORNING ALONG ELEVATED VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT KEKN WHERE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS BL MIXING SETS IN.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOWERING CIGS BY 18-20Z ACROSS SE OH AND NRN WV DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN
VICINITY OF STORMS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY...ESPECIALLY AT KEKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/07/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KMC








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