Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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305
FXUS61 KRLX 251837
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
237 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system moves off the Carolinas coast loosing its
grip on our weather. Brief high pressure builds tonight and
Wednesday. Next cold front Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

As the upper level low over the Carolinas moves northeast off the
Atlantic coast, winds aloft will decrease and back from the west
southwest, ahead of an approaching cold front. This winds will bring
warm and moist air mass to the area. With near calm winds and enough
low level moisture and skies clearing, expect areas of dense fog
mainly along the river valleys overnight tonight.

A brief high pressure builds over the OH Valley Wednesday providing
dry conditions from tonight through Wednesday night.

The next cold front approaches Thursday with chance for showers or
storms ahead of the front. The actual front crosses Thursday night
with additional convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

High pressure builds into the region for Wednesday, for overall dry
and warm conditions. Rather dry airmass expected to be in place
should result in an overall sunny sky, and quick warm up in
temperatures, with much of the lowlands topping out in the lower to
mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Focus then shifts to a cold
front which will move into the region late Thursday afternoon or
evening. Still expecting showers and thunderstorms, but still
thinking severe potential will be somewhat limited, particularly if
timing of the frontal boundary slows down further. Nevertheless,
there is the potential for heavy downpours, and strong gusty winds
making it to the surface, although, no widespread severe is expected
at this time. If there is any change in the timing of this boundary,
the story on this could change however.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Focus this weekend shifts to a developing and strengthening low
pressure system near the Gulf. Warm frontal boundary will lift north
across the region on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms as it
does so. In addition, it will be rather hot and humid for this time
of year, with dew points rising into the 60s, and max temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s for much of the lowlands, as good southerly
flow/high moisture content air makes its way into the region out
ahead of this approaching low. Any storms that develop during this
time period will have heavy downpours, due to the high moisture
content, pw values progged to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches. Strong cold
front with system progged to move through the region early next
week. Although still several days out, this is looking to be a major
system this weekend into early next week, and will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...

Radar images show rain showers have diminished or dissipated
across central WV by 18Z. SFC obs suggest post rain IFR
ceilings that should last for two more hours. Vfr conditions
will prevail over the rest of sites through 03Z.

Low pressure center over the Carolinas will move northeast off
the Atlantic coast tonight. A brief high pressure builds over
the OH Valley tonight and Wednesday allowing for mostly clear
skies. Abundant low level moisture, near calm winds and clear
skies will allow for fog development mainly along river valleys
and over areas that received the rain. IFR/LIFR conditions
possible at CRW, EKN and HTS during the predawn hours.

By Wednesday morning, any fog will quickly dissipate to provide
widespread VFR conditions through the rest of the period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of fog or mist tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ



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