Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 270615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS S/W TROUGH BRINGS A BAND
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCN...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN
INCREASING POPS W TO E OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR
HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS WAS TO DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY
AIR...DESPITE SOME LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED
LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT. THE THUNDER HAD ALL BUT WANED...BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST RAIN FOG OR MIST IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MVFR STRATOCU IS ALSO LIKELY
TO FORM NEAR DAYBREAK WED AND THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP TOWARD MIDDAY
WED.

THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND WED NT.
EXPECTING A VFR AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ONRADAR.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WED
EVENING BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND AGAIN WORKING
SLOWLY EWD.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT S TO SE BY NT AND S TO SW BY DAY
WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE LIGHTER FLOW
ALOFT COMPARED WITH TUE SPELLS SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING COMPARED WITH TUE EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
CONVECTION. LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT
AIR.

.AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



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