Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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992
FXUS61 KRLX 191722
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1222 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front lifts through this morning with rain. Cold front
midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end
of the week, with significant rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1030 AM Monday...

Line of showers have exited to our north with some lingering
precipitation over our far northwest counties. Adjusted PoPs
with very minor changes over the short term, clearing area north
of KCKB and KEKN an hour or so earlier, based on latest radar
and short term model guidance. Otherwise, main forecast on track
for today and Tuesday with a slight drying trend in the short
term before next system arrives.

As of 600 AM Monday...

Adjusted POPs based on current radar, trending towards a
HRRR/NAMnest blend for the rest of the day. Have line of showers
currently running from KDWU to KBKW lifting north over the next
3-4 hours, with mainly dry conditions after that. Do linger
POPs over far NW corner through most of the afternoon...also
added isolated thunder mention in this same area.

As of 1245 AM Monday...

A warm front is making its way through the coal fields, and will
continue lifting northward through this morning. Adjusted POPs a
bit slower than previous forecast and high res models with
radar just showing echos making it to the Tug Valley now.
However do have some concern that things will accelerate
northward, so plan to go through POPs again in a couple hours
when radar gives a bit more to latch onto.

For now, have likely rain lifting northward, with the exception
of keeping chance wording across the western slope downslope
area with E to SE low level flow.

Temperature wise, have non-diurnal temperatures taking over in
the next couple hours with a slow warming trend through sunrise.
Did not make any significant changes to high/low for today and
tonight with a very mild airmass moving in behind the warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Bulk of precipitation to start the period to our north, as
upper heights build across the eastern U.S. Good southerly flow
and building heights across the region will result in
temperatures well above normal on Tuesday, with some lowland
locations topping out in the lower 80s. Upper ridge breaks down
by Wednesday, as a cold front approaches the area. Showers and
thunderstorms look likely on Wednesday, with additional rain
expected on Thursday, as frontal boundary stalls out across the
region, and a wave moves along the front, enhancing
precipitation. Heaviest rain during this period looks to be
across southeast Ohio, with a good inch or so of rain expected.
This could lead to rises on area creeks and streams once again,
particularly across southeast Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Monday...

A series of low pressure systems, with heavy rainfall potential
are expected Friday through the weekend. Models are still
continuing to hit the heaviest precipitation axis across the
Ohio River region, and this could lead to additional flooding
issues both on area creeks and streams, and main stem rivers,
including the Ohio. Have elected to highlight flooding
potential into the HWO for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1222 PM Monday...

Warm front has lifted north of the area leaving us in south to
southwest flow and mostly VFR. Will continue to see some drying
in the wake of front, with VFR expected for the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be out of the S to SW with fair
amount of gradient flow with downsloping off the eastern
mountains. This should, for the most part, negate any chances
for morning fog Tuesday morning, despite the wet soils and
moist boundary layer.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR possible in stray shower or
two.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC



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