Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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