Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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578
FXUS61 KRLX 241816
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides southward across the area through this
evening. A much stronger cold front will cross late Monday,
setting us up with more autumn-like temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

Solid band of clouds across the north with cold front, will tend
to break up as it continues south this afternoon. This will lead
to partly sunny skies north and mostly sunny skies south this
afternoon. Sunshine will also tend to offset modest cooling behind
the front,so high temps look good.

As of 350 AM Saturday...

A west to east oriented cold front slips southward through the
area today. The front is almost of a back door nature, given the
driving upper level trough is moving off the east coast. Thus,
little moisture or forcing is available to the front, and mainly
just clouds are anticipated. Did keep the slight chance for a
shower today, as narrow CAPE and mid level moisture may be just
enough to stand something up.

Surface high pressure sails by to the north of the area tonight,
as an upper level slowly approaches from close by to the west. A
spotty light shower could occur late tonight along the eastern
slopes of the WV mountains, as low level flow veers to the east.
Otherwise, patchy altocu behind the front will keep fog patchy and
intermittent overnight tonight.

Temperatures were close to the latest guidance and were not
changed much. Highs today are reached by early afternoon, and
then temperatures plateau, as the front and its associated clouds
push south.
through
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Saturday...

Frontal boundary should be across far southern zones at the start of
the period...with slightly lower dew points across the north. Most
of the area should be dry on Sunday...although a slight chance for
showers is possible across the south and the higher terrain mainly
during peak heating hours.

Cold front will approach from the west on Monday...with showers and
thunderstorms...with much cooler air moving in behind the front.
Front should be to the east of the CWA by late Monday night...with
drier air filtering in. Area will be under the influence of an upper
low/trough into mid week...with isolated -shra and clouds
possible...mainly across the north...along with cooler/more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z Saturday thru 18Z Sunday...

As of 1225 pm Friday...

Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it.
Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high
pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary
trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of
the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high
pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and
for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures
are expected as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
15Z Saturday thru 12Z Sunday.

As of 145 PM Saturday...

Thru 00Z,
A weak east to west cold front, across the central portion of WV
and extreme southeast OH at 17z, will continue southward through
this afternoon. Front will exit the far south early this evening.
Band of associated clouds has largely dissipated...and we look
VFR SCT-BKN clouds between 3500-5000 feet AGL remainder of this
afternoon. Light and variable winds ahead of the front becomes
northerly 5 to 10 KTS behind the front.

After 00Z,
Most clouds will have dissipated by around 00Z, then generally
FEW-SCT 5000-8000 feet AGL, but with one important exception. As
the winds turn more light northeasterly and then southeasterly
tonight, MVFR/IFR ceilings will tend to form in the WV mountain
chain. This will bring MVFR ceilings by 06z to EKN and BKW, then
IFR after 08z, with some LIFR in the higher elevations. River
valley fog looks be more of an issue after 06Z tonight behind the
front, especially where skies are clear. This will bring
MVFR/IFR fog to major TAF sites, except BKW, after 07Z.

After 13z, Outside of the mountains, improving to VFR mostly
clear by 14z. In the mountains, fog lifting to MVFR ceilings by
14z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent and intensity of fog tonight
is likely to vary. Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu in the
mountains tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Low stratus possible Monday night, then morning valley fog
possible next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV



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