Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 231417
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1017 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts east today. Increasingly warmer and more
humid air as the week progresses...before the next cold front
approaches later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM Tuesday...

Another beautiful and comfy afternoon in store...though temps will
rebound about 5 degrees from yesterdays readings. The more robust
flat cu today should be confined to the mountains.

As of 3 AM Tuesday...
Even though the surface high pressure center currently over the
Ohio Valley shifts east today...ridging at the surface and aloft
will continue to dominate through tonight with tranquil weather.
Except for the NAM which is typically overly aggressive with low
level moisture...most models agree the area of clouds east of the
mountains will basically stay east and tend to dissipate as the
day goes on...as low level winds veer into the south and
southwest. So after early morning dense river valley fog under
this high pressure...abundant sunshine will boost temperatures
into the 80s this afternoon with light southerly winds.

For tonight...models indicate dry weather with high pressure will
still hang on. Expect some more river valley fog early
Wednesday morning...but less than this morning as deeper
southerly flow does bring in some moisture. However...clouds with
this surge of moisture will mostly wait til just after this
period. Lows tonight will be a bit milder compared to early this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Tuesday...

Warm frontal boundary will move northeast through area
Wednesday...with warmer temperatures...and a return of higher
humidity. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday
afternoon in the increasingly unstable atmosphere.  Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase on Thursday as an upper
disturbance moves through the region...followed by another Thursday
night...across the Great Lakes region...keeping a slight chance of
pops across the north. Cold frontal boundary will approach the
region on Friday...with showers and thunderstorms developing. Some
drier air could filter in across the north late Friday...but this
will depend on timing...and how far south the frontal boundary
actually treks. At this point...it doesnt look like there will be a
significant break in the humidity and heat over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

A cold front approaches Friday increasing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty on when the front arrives, so not much confidence in
pinpointing a time, but for now, early Friday looks like the best
bet. GFS starts to bring another front through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...
12Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday...

Calm winds and clear skies early this morning will result in
widespread river and valley LIFR fog til 13Z...affecting all
major TAF sites except BKW. Conditions will rapidly improve 13z-
14z to VFR mostly clear with light southerly winds. Some
scattered cumulus mostly in the mountains during the afternoon.

After 00Z VFR mostly clear with near calm winds...except in higher
elevations where winds may still be light southerly. Patchy
MVFR/IFR fog after 06z...mainly in sheltered mountain valleys
including EKN. Higher clouds may begin  to move into western
portions of area late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Dense morning valley fog possible through mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...JMV



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