Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 120640
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
240 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering showers tonight and Thursday and cooler. High
pressure builds in for Friday and lasts into the weekend.
Another cold front Sunday afternoon or evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 720 PM Wednesday...

Latest surface observations indicate a cold front was pushing
across eastern portions of the area. Ahead of this front,
scattered showers continued.

Front and associated showers should continue to move east this
evening. However, still believe there could be some isolated
activity during the overnight behind the front.

Dewpoints have fallen much faster than expected behind the
front. The dewpoint at PKB appears to be an outlier...so do not
feel it is representative of the airmass near that site. Have
made some tweaks to the dewpoints to reflect this thinking.

As of 240 PM Wednesday...
Line of broken showers, no thunder yet, with modest gusts
pushing eastward with the cold front. Showers largely end after
03Z, with only isolated activity expected during the overnight
behind the front. Low level temperature gradients forecast to
pass during the early overnight, so should see temperatures drop
considerably lower than the mid and upper 60s from the last
night. Surface pressure trough lingers over the mountains for
Thursday, so will bring the POPs back up to chance during that
time frame and extending into the short term forecast period.
Moisture depth for these showers will be on the shallow side, so
expect the activity to have difficulty maintaining itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

A sfc ridge will extend from the Northeast states southwest into
WV Friday providing light flow and dry conditions. A CAD event
will result in very light rain or drizzle over the eastern
mountains Friday and Friday night. In the lowlands, expect
mostly clear skies with diurnal cu developing during the
afternoon hours.

High pressure will be in control of the weather conditions
bringing mostly clear skies and weak flow Saturday.
The pressure gradient tightens Saturday night increasing
southeast flow, warm and moist air, ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Went with superblend guidance for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Expect an increase in rain showers activity with isolated
thunderstorms. Coded thunder for few hours over portions of
southeast OH early Sunday night as we loose heating, resulting
in scattered to numerous showers across the entire area ahead
and along the cold front.

Some post frontal upslope showers may linger across the
northern mountains late Sunday night as strong CAA commences.
Models show H850 temperatures around 4C. This will set the
stage for true Autumn weather Monday and Tuesday, with
highs/lows actually running a bit below normal both days.

Areas of front will be possible over the higher elevations of
northeast mountains Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM Thursday...

Widespread MVFR and IFR cigs spreading into the area behind a
cold front. These will generally scatter out/improve to VFR
after 15Z, with mountains slower to clear.

However, increasing southeasterly flow Thursday night, generally
after 00Z, will lead to widespread MVFR and local IFR
conditions/cigs once again across parts of the higher terrain,
including at sites KBKW and KEKN. Elsewhere, fog is possible in
river valleys in lowlands.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of dissipation of stratus may vary
from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 10/12/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    L    M    M    L    M    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR in areas of fog or stratus again Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...JSH/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL



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