Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 291908
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MID/
UPPER WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. WEAK STEERING FLOW/NO FRONTS AS SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR AS OF 17Z. HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SE OHIO AND IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD ON LIGHT SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS
AROUND...AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DRIFT TOWARD
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH...DID UP POPS TO MID-CHANCE RANGE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE ARE SEEING TODAY. USED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL 500 MB VORT MAX THAT MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...GETS SHEERED OUT TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.
HOW FAR NORTH ITS INFLUENCE GETS...IS IN QUESTION.  LEFT SOME 40
POPS EARLY IN OUR SE... WITH 30 POPS ELSEWHERE EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING 30 POPS THRU THE NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

MOSTLY JUST 20/30 POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE SENSITIVE NAM DO SHOW SOME
SKINKY CAPE TO 30 TO 35 THSD TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWLANDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG
TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH
OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIRUNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH
20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHRE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOME
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP DENSE
FOG AT BAY ELSEWHERE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OHIO...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A BIT BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY AS CLOUDS INCREASE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY
IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ



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