Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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304
FXUS61 KRLX 041049
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
549 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING COLDER WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
BY MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS
WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT HEADS AWAY TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW SO EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE MIXING IN AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT...BUT
OPTED FOR JUST SPRINKLES TO FLURRIES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BREAKING UP
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TROUGH PASSES
AND FLOW STARTS SHIFTING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW IT LACKS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AND IS MOISTURE
STARVED. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS FEATURE FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN EDGES BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.
IN RESPONSE...WEAK 500 MB TROF AXIS PASSES OUR LONGITUDE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE ONLY CLOUDS NO PCPN.

SUPER BOWL SUNDAY APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INFLUENCE FROM LOBES OF 500 MB VORTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOARD 500 MB TROF MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS MUCH DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE 500 MB TROF. 12Z GFS EVENS
KEEPS A CUT OFF 500 MB LOW TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY COME
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LEANING TOWARD THE 12Z GFS BEING A
BIT STRONG....SO ALSO NOT QUITE AS COLD. EVEN A WEAKER 500 MB
SOLUTION WILL STILL HAVE THE TROF IN OUR VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE DEPTH REACHES INTO THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF...SO
PCPN COULD BE STRATIFORM VS SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE MORE SHOWERY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE...LEFT PCPN SHOWERY.

OF COURSE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AROUND 0.40. SO NO
BIG/MAJOR STORMS FORESEEN.  ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST..ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EXPECT THAT TO STICK WITH US THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS
WITH THIS DUE SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COULD HAVE MVFR OR MAYBE EVEN IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TIMING OF STRATUS ENTRANCE AND EXIT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 02/04/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ



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