Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 170720
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid today. Cold front tonight into Friday. Generally
drier afterwards until Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Cirrus already on the increase ahead of surface and upper low
moving through the Northern Plains. The first impulse associated
with the upper air feature should kick off showers and
thunderstorms across the Tri-state late this morning, with
activity drifting NE through the afternoon. Decent instability
across the area with the hot and humid air in place -- MLCape
should be in the 1000-1500J/kg range. The CAPE profile is rather
skinny and shear of 20-30kts is fairly marginal for strong to
severe storms. However, with precipitable water values topping
2 inches, heavy rain is likely in mature convection. Flash flood
guidance is generally 1.5-2.5 inches across the forecast area.
The most likely area of heavy rain today -- across the Ohio
River Valley and western lowlands of WV -- corresponds to the
higher FFG so not planning a flash flood watch. Still...cannot
rule out isolated issues with repetitive storms.

Tonight, we should have a line of showers and thunderstorms move
from west to east ahead of a cold front. Instability drops off
quickly 00Z Friday, but precipitable water remains on the high
side... so again strong to severe storms not expected but heavy
rainfall is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

What remains of a cold front crosses the CWA Friday for scattered
showers.

A weak upper level wave brushes the northern CWA over the
weekend though high pressure will likely keep the rest of the
area rain free and warm.

High pressure continues Sunday for dry weather area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

High pressure continues Monday for dry weather area wide. Moisture
will increase Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next
approaching cold front. The cold front crosses Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Messy aviation forecast expected through the TAF period.
For early this morning, clouds are on the increase, and flow is
also picking up some across the west which reduces the potential
for dense fog. However, across the northern mountains clouds and
wind are less, so expecting fog at EKN and maybe CKB.

Several areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
and tonight. Brief IFR will be possible in any developed shower
or storm, but to early to pinpoint any timing on that so went
with more general MVFR for now.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on overall trends, low on small
scale specifics.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog intensity and coverage could vary. Will
likely need amendments for IFR in storms later today and
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/17/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Lingering IFR possible in showers and storms early Friday
morning. Dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ


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