Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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277
FXUS61 KRLX 101757
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper trough moves away today. Next upper trough and cold front
push east Monday night, with a stronger upper trough on
Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Sunday...

Ended the winter weather advisory in the mountains.

As of 231 AM Sunday...

Latest radar mosaic shows snow showers continue across portions
of the area. Based on latest guidance, the snow showers should
end across the lowland counties by sunrise and then across the
mountains before noon. Current thinking is that a few inches of
additional snow is still possible in the higher elevation with
lesser amounts in the lowlands. Will continue Winter Weather
Advisory for the higher elevations until 9 AM today.

Clouds should break up from the west today allowing for
sunshine, especially across portions of northeast Kentucky,
northwest Virginia and the southern and central counties of West
Virginia. However even with the sunshine, temperatures will
remain below normal with readings in the 20s across the highest
elevations and 30s across the remainder of the area.

Another system will move across the state tonight. This system
appears to be moisture starved and do not expect much in the way
of precipitation. Models show widely suggest areas of precipitation
across the northern mountain counties. Have maintained slight
chance PoPS there to reflect this trend as well as matching up
with the neighboring offices. Overnight temperatures should be a
few degrees below normal. with some mid level moisture/cloud
cover for the region, but no precipitation late Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...

Start the short term period off with a decent day on Monday.
Temperatures should warm back up to normal values with southerly
flow out ahead of an approaching cold front. That cold front
will push through Monday night and into early Tuesday morning,
bringing cold arctic air back into the region. May see some rain
showers or a rain/snow mix out ahead of the front, but that will
likely be short-lived as the cold air rushes in and changes any
precip over snow. Should not see much in the way of snow
accumulation with the initial frontal passage, but snow showers
will be on the increase by Tuesday afternoon as an upper trough
swings overhead.

This system will be similar to what we just saw this weekend,
but forecast soundings are indicating a bit more of instability.
By Tuesday afternoon, NAM Bufkit cross sections indicate a
modest zone of omega intersecting a nearly saturated Dendritic
Growth Zone. These early indicators suggest snow squalls will be
possible across the region and a quick half inch to an inch of
snow will be possible. Timing will be everything, as the Tuesday
afternoon commute could be impacted, but confidence remains low
on the exact timing.

It`s possible that winter headlines will be needed for Tuesday
through Tuesday night in the favorable NW flow upslope areas of
the mountains. Along with the snow in the mountains, gusty winds
combined with some of the coldest air we have seen yet this
season will drop wind chills possibly lower than minus 20F at
times. Will mention all this in the HWO for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

Upper trough swings to our east on Wednesday, but some snow
showers may still be on going early Wednesday morning. Although
conditions will improve through the day, it will remain quite
cold and highs will likely be well below normal. Forecast
guidance diverges after the middle of the week, as GFS brings
another deep upper trough through the area. However, the Euro
has a bit more of a zonal pattern with only a quick moving
clipper system pushing through on Thursday. Have went with a
blend of ensemble and operational guidance for days 5 through 7
for now. Any precip we do receive this time period will likely
be all snow as the models at least agree that the cold air
remains in place through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

MVFR ceilings will yield to VFR over the next 2-4 hours for the
remaining terminals across the northern tier today. Another
upper level wave tonight brings a low chance for snow showers
once again for EKN and the highest ridgetops, and also MVFR
ceilings between 2 and 3kft after 09Z Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Another wave Monday night through Tuesday is forecast to have
similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring
the mountain terminals. IFR in snow possible on Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK
NEAR TERM...JSH/26
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...26



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