Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300623
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
223 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE FRONT MEANDERING BACK AND
FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
YET AGAIN...ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

A VORT MAX...AT 0615Z...VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN...WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL UNSTABLE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PERHAPS
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. THIS...COMBINED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS...WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
RISK...ALTHOUGH LIKE MONDAY...STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG...THEREBY
LIMITING WATER ISSUES SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH REPETITIVE STORMS COULD
CREATE ISSUES.

BULK OF CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL DIE OFF AS WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN/CLEARING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A LIGHT WIND AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST
OH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SO...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE GFS/NAM MODELS
SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DECREASING SOME AT NIGHT WHILE THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS
SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY.

PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES DONT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING
EXPECTED. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING KEPT LOW POPS AT NIGHT. THE
STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX PASSING BY OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT SO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THESE TIME PERIODS.

WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND CLOSER TO THE
GFS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A NEW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KEEPING MODELS SPITTING QPF ALL OVER THE PLACE SUGGESTING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PER UNCERTAINTY AS THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DONT LOOK COHERENT
AT AND AFTER DAY 3.

HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS
CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. ROLLED WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OFF...WITH ISOLD -SHRA
REMAINING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCKB TO KCRW...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH SUCH AS AT SITES KPKB AND KCKB...AND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOG ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 13Z...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD
HOLD ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE LONGER.

CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN GENERALLY AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...WITH
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL



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