Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY
DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING. ANY SHOWER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR
DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES
REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND TO THE MID 80S TO
UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND
NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL
DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MOST SITES DURING
PREDAWN HOURS. HTS SEEMS THE FIRST ONE TO FOG ALREADY IN MVFR
VISIBILITIES UNDER FOG. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DECK ACROSS CKB SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS
COULD MOVE OVER EKN PREVENTING OR DELAYING FOG FORMATION THERE.

FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DIURNAL CU AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z
WEDNESDAY...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHERE EXACTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP...MORE
LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER
SUNSET.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...ARJ


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