Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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826
FXUS61 KRLX 181759
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1251 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system overnight with scattered showers. Unseasonably warm
through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Saturday...

Models show a weak system with an upper level trough moving across
the area overnight, producing some showers. Dynamics are weak enough
that models are a bit varied on the placement of showers at any
particular time, so will generally stay with just high chance pops
in the most likely areas. With clouds remaining through the night,
will keep low temperatures are the warmer side of MOS guidance.

A stratus deck behind the system should lift into a cumulus deck on
Sunday as high pressure builds in, allowing for some sunshine,
especially in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

A weak system brushes the CWA Sunday morning with scattered
showers. Anomalously warm pattern continues with temperatures
reaching 70 degrees many times this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

The very warm pattern continues through the week. A weak system
passes Wednesday. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow
for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties
trees/vegetation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Saturday...

Clouds will gradually be increasing this afternoon, but will remain
VFR. A weak system will move over the area tonight. Ceilings will
gradually lower, becoming MVFR or possibly IFR. Some showers could
also provide restrictions. Conditions will improve on Sunday as the
cloud deck raises into a cumulus deck.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon, then medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lower clouds could vary. Could have
brief visibility restrictions in showers tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RPY



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