Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 201832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY








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