Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 291917
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front
arrives thursday with showers and cooler air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from tropical
depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous counties...and
scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of southeast
Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the
moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the
ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms
across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy
downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western
zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie.

Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue
tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV
counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at
18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be
rather limited due to the late arrival of the front.

Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on
Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist
across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front.

Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this
point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across
the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is
possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled
out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Remnants of tropical storm Bonnie is expected to be over the
Carolinas by Tuesday 12z. Meanwhile, a cool front with limited
moisture approaches from the northwest. The area will be under the
influence of a small high pressure maintaining dry weather until
Tuesday night. Small chance for showers appears along the
mountains as moisture from the tropical system gets squeeze across
the mountains.

the front crosses to the south by 12z Wednesday. The diurnal
heating and near calm flow will keep low chance for showers or
storms Wednesday and Wednesday night along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly vfr conditions through this evening...although brief mvfr
and ifr conditions are possible in showers...and isolated
thunderstorms through 02Z. MVFR and local IFR Fog possible late
tonight...generally after 04-06Z...particularly across southeast
Ohio...NE KY...and WV counties near to the Ohio River.
However...fog cannot be completely ruled out tonight in any
location that receives rainfall today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of shra and tsra remains
in question today. Fog development tonight in question.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL


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