000
FXUS61 KRLX 132355
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROVIDES CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS FINALLY KICK OUT WET WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY TONIGHT...WITH
POWERFUL SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST.
SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MANY AREAS THRU THE
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS TIL 22Z
EVEN AS MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL HAVE EXITED...GIVEN THAT
A LOT OF FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE.

COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE FRIDAY. EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALMOST LIKE A COOL SEASON
SCENARIO...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY...GIVEN A BIT OF A FALL FEELING...GIVEN THAT HIGH
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE WEST SHIFTING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR...SUNNY SKIES AND AN OVERALL VERY NICE DAY TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO START PUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FINALLY KICKS THE MOISTURE
EAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR
BOTH POTENTIAL HYDRO AND SEVERE CONCERNS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER BREAK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING MOST SITES UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED AT THE MID LEVELS AND THIS
HELPING TO PUSH LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO THE EAST. AS OF
00Z...CLOUD BOUNDARY WAS WELL DEPICTED ON IR SAT IMAGERY AND
CLEARING LINE EXTENDED FROM ABOUT KCKB TO KCRW. CLEARING SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CAUGHT UP
IN UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD IMPINGE AGAINST EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW
STRATCU TO REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WAS SLOW TO BRING CLEARING
FOR MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR HIER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...EXPECT VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND
4500 FEET AGL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOWER CATEGORY
CEILINGS THAT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 06/14/13
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JR
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...KMC/JMV