Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 140010
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
710 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An oscillating front lingers in the area through the weekend
and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Isentropic lift will be on the increase heading into this
evening with the surface frontal boundary taking on an inverted
trof orientation along the I79 corridor. This will allow rain to
overspread the area tonight with the main axis setting up across
portions of southeast OH and central WV. Expect a yucky night
with very low stratus and some fog. With low level cold air in
place, some of this will fall as freezing rain, generally north
of the US 30 corridor this evening and overnight. QPF amounts
surpassing half an inch is possible in the all liquid zone
tonight across the I 64 corridor with much lighter qpf expected
further north where surface temps will creep below freezing.
There was minimal change in ice grids from previous shift across
southeast OH and northern WV...up to a tenth of an inch. As
such no changes in headlines needed there. Further south, there
may not be much in the way of precip overnight, say from
southwest VA into the southern coal fields of WV.

Across the mountains...expect mainly rain until late when the
cold surface high tracks into PA and NY to allow CAD to setup.
There is some disagreement with the magnitude and extent of
this, with the coarser models not overly excited. Hedged this
part of the forecast to the Nam 4 km and meso Nam to better
capture the expected CAD. This results in rain changing to
freezing rain during the predawn across eastern Randolph and
all of Pocahontas County. There is some concern this may wedge
into southeast Fayette but confidence not high enough to
include in advisory at this time given how warm it currently is
there. There is also a concern of meeting ice storm criteria
somewhere across the CAD areas in the northern mountains.
However, given the uncertainty where the highest qpf axis sets
up...have elected to hold with advisory and pass concerns along
to evening shift. I did bump up totals to near a quarter inch
across extreme eastern Randolph.

The meandering frontal boundary will remain active on Saturday
with bouts of rain continuing. We will have to monitor amounts
as it will not take much to cause water problems. Surface temps
will steadily warm through the morning so that freezing rain
concerns will subside by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

A high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region south into our
area Sunday night. This high will push a cold front further south
and bring a break in PCPN Sunday evening into Monday morning. The
front becomes stationary south of the area.  The flow becomes
northwest keeping sfc temperatures near freezing across the northern
sections and the northeast mountains. If it rains, it will freeze
upon contact with elevated surfaces. But models are in agreement
with a aforementioned lull in PCPN.

A series of short waves will pass along the stationary boundary to
produce additional rain showers Monday. With soggy ground, much of
this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers,
however flooding not anticipated at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

A high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region south into our
area Sunday night. This high will push a cold front further south
and bring a break in PCPN Sunday evening into Monday morning. The
front becomes stationary south of the area.  The flow becomes
northwest keeping sfc temperatures near freezing across the northern
sections and the northeast mountains. If it rains, it will freeze
upon contact with elevated surfaces. But models are in agreement
with a aforementioned lull in PCPN.

A series of short waves will pass along the stationary boundary to
produce additional rain showers Monday. With soggy ground, much of
this will be runoff, so do expect rises on streams and rivers,
however flooding not anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z Saturday thru 00Z Sunday...
As of 700 PM Friday...

Liquid precipitation overspreads the area early tonight as a
meandering front to the south begins to creep north. Conditions
will deteriorate tonight with widespread LIFR cigs and vsby,
first across the south and central, then across the north as the
front creeps north. Freezing rain will be observed across the
north, and along east facing slopes of the northern WV
mountains, thru Saturday morning. But affected TAFS of PKB and
CKB on the southern edge of this freezing rain will see temps
warm above freezing by morning. Otherwise look for widespread
light to moderate rain tonight. These conditions are then expected
to hold through Saturday morning. Only slight improvement
Saturday afternoon to generally IFR conditions, with the rain
diminishing over southern and western portions of the area.
Winds will be light, generally northeasterly early tonight,
becoming light and variable overnight and most of Saturday,
except southeasterly east facing slopes of the mountains by
Saturday morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be varying vsby overnight
dependent on rain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible Saturday night and Sunday in rain showers and a
wintry mix, especially north.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-523-524-526.
OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV


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