Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 280117
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
825 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSING EAST OF MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DRIFTS EAST...FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO NEAR NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RARE LATE JUNE EARLY EVENING WITH WIND IN THE HILLS AND HOLLOWS OF THE
MID OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

AT 00Z...FRONT HAS PASSED EKN TO BKW LINE.  THAT NOTICEABLE WIND HAS LOWERED
DEW POINTS IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. POTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MOSTLY NORTH OF I-64 WITH THE COOL POOL AND LOWER CLOUDS.

HOW FAR SOUTH TO CARRY THE OVERCAST WRAP AROUND LOWER CLOUDS IS DIFFICULT TO
FIGURE. WILL TRY TO HAVE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA WITH LESS CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.  EVEN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS LIFT AND THIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATER MONDAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AND RACES ACROSS THE OHO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT. YET
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY
AND ACTS MUCH LIKE THIS FRIST FRONT...KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE. DURING THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM...SO FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MODERATE
SIDE NEXT WEEK...AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS
PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH
AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSING EAST OF EKN-BKW LINE AT 00Z.  WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN THE
LOW LEVEL COOL POOL OVER OHIO...WILL SHIFT EAST AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.  HOW FAR SOUTH...THE SOLID
OVERCAST COMES IS IN QUESTION. SO CLOUD COVER IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGNIIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COULD VARY.

IN ANY CASE...SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE COOL POOL...STARTING
IN EASTERN OHIO 00Z TO 06Z...REACHING NORTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 03Z.

THINKING CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND THIN OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRIGNIA 18Z SUNDAY TO
00Z MONDAY...WITH CLEARING FURTHER SOUTH DURING SAME TIME FRAME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THINKING SOUTHERN WV ON SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF WRAP AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL.  SO CLOUD AMOUNTS COULD
VARY ESPECIALLY FOR BKW AND POINTS SOUTH.

AFTER OOZ MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/26


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.