Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 180232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE AND MUGGY AIR BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TROUGH ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONCERNED ABOUT EFFICIENT SHOWERS...NOT MUCH THUNDER...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT MOVES THROUGH 12Z TO
18Z. WEAKER FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THAT CIRCULATION. PW(S)
INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY.  POSTED A FFA...FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IN SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. MOST AREAS CAN HANDLE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES WITHOUT MAJOR
PROBLEMS.

FURTHER NORTH...SOME FOG LIKELY IN THINNER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A LARGELY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN
A SYNOPTICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO LATE SUMMER WITH
TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE CHARACTERISTICS. FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC CANNOT YIELD TO ENOUGH STABILITY TO WARRANT NO WEATHER
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN WEST TO EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT/ OR TWO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED LOW BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

NOT CONVINCED...HOWEVER...THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
OUR AREA. BEST DEFORMATION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR NOT OPTING FOR
LIKELIES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE BEST SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SPLIT THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THEME OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. EURO POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT WOULD LIE OUTSIDE
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WINDOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FOR LATE AUGUST IN CENTRAL KY MOVES E
AND THROUGH SRN WV 12Z THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM INCREASE IN COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE...FURTHER NORTH...PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY IN
THE PKB...CKB...EKN CORRIDOR 04Z TO 12Z. VSBY AOB 3 MILES AT TIMES
BUT MAY BE VARIABLE DUE TO LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH THAT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.

AS A RESULT...HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 1 THSD FT
BKN/OVC AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH BY THE
PREDAWN HOURS...THEN ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM 18Z MONDAY TO 00Z
TUESDAY ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE...INCLUDING THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWER DURATION MAY BE LESS THAN INDICATE IN
SOUTHERN TAFS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 08/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.