Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230215
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1015 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal
into the weekend. Dry cold front late Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 915 PM Thursday...

Quiet weather with high pressure in place. No changes needed to
previous forecast.

As of 1250 PM Thursday...

High pressure in control tonight and Friday. Based on the
performance of MOS guidance over the last couple of days...will go
on the lower side of MOS guidance tonight...and on the warmer side
during the daytime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Thursday...

The only feature to track in the short term will be a back door
cold front as the upper ridge gets pinched over the region. This
boundary will slip thru later on Saturday with an isolated shra
threat over the northern mountains...otherwise this should be a
dry fropa. Temperatures on Saturday may still flirt with 90 along
and S of the I64 corridor. The greatest push of cooler air will
stay NE of the area but a good temperature gradient may still
exist from NE to SW on Sunday...along with some more clouds. As a
result...temps on Sunday should be similar to Saturday with
perhaps a tick or two lower on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1100 AM Thursday...

It still appears that any true Autumn push of air will hold off
until late week. However there is some disagreement on timing and
evolution of the northern stream early next week. The 00Z Euro is
more bullish and progressive with the northern stream compared to
the GFS which is more blocky. Will hedge toward the GFS to
maintain continuity...keeping things warm and only a small chance
for a shra/tsra early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Thursday...

High pressure remains in control of the weather with mostly clear
skies and light winds. Expect some dense river valley fog to
develop tonight...although much like last night visibilities may
be highly variable dipping in and out of IFR through the early
morning hours.

VFR expected after fog dissipates on Friday, with some mid level
cumulus and also some higher cirrus passing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming overnight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 09/23/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...

Morning dense valley fog is possible into early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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