Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 050256
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
956 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING COLDER. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BY MONDAY AND LINGERS THRU WEDNESDAY. COLDER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAK TO CURRENT FORECAST HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT
NOTHING THAT WILL AFFECT THE OVERALL FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO GET
SOME REPORTS OF SNOWFLAKES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

645 PM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAD A
REPORT OF SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN ATHENS OHIO WITH THE STRATUS DECK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS DECK THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...MOISTURE
IS VERY LIMITED AND QUITE SHALLOW BUT OROGRAPHIC ACCENT COULD HELP
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS DECK WILL START TO ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BUT THERMAL TROUGH AT 850MB IS EVIDENT
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SLOPES UNTIL ABOUT NOON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN TOMORROW AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AMID A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH...WITH ONLY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOW TO COOL HERE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  SO INITIAL SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

THE INITIAL LOBE AROUND THE BROAD TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND
MAY HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP POPS
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF. MAY LEAD TO
SOME ADVISORIES...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE...CONSIDERING 12 HOUR CRITERIA...
MARGINAL. SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
DISTANCE IN TIME.

POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEM MAY STREAK
SE ON DAY 7...BUT FOR NOW...WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTH. SO DRY ON THURSDAY.

IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THE GFS CERTAINLY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE COLD AIR.  12Z GFS TODAY MUCH SLOWER BRINGING THE MINUS 10C 850 MB
TEMP...NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  THINK 12Z GFS MAY HAVE BACKED OFF TOO MUCH.
SO TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 03Z MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR BKW WERE VFR. WITH THE
STRATUS DECK WIDESPREAD MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DID
REMOVE THE MVFR FROM CRW. LEFT MVFR IN CKB BUT THAT COULD BE IFFY.
STILL EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS -SHSN FOR EKN AND
BKW.

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MORNING. HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OVERNIGHT AT BKW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH SO DID NOT ADD
TO TAFS. WILL UPDATE AT 03Z IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
TOMORROW EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING TONIGHT FROM MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. ALSO, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 02/05/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/30
NEAR TERM...FB/MPK
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...FB/MPK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.