Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 200539
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
139 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons is on
tap through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure
system crosses early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...No major changes to the forecast, however
I did lower the extent of the fog cover through this morning.
Low level flow should be just strong enough to keep fog at a
minimum and I have confined the fog cover strictly to the larger
river valleys.

As of 810 PM Thursday...

High pressure in control. No changes.


As of 225 PM Thursday...

These near term shifts continue to remain void of any
significant weather. There will be a weak front crossing this
evening across the northern reaches of the CWA but will have
little if any impact other than a few clouds. Expect another
quick drop in temps this evening in the valleys and hollows.
Overnight lows will see a few degrees improvement from last
night/this morning, continuing the trend over the past few days.
The boundary winds will be a bit more relaxed tonight, so expect
some dense river valley fog, primarily hugging the main stem
river banks.

One can basically paste today`s weather in for tomorrow, with
sunshine amid temperatures running 8 to 12 degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

A high pressure system will continue to provide dry conditions
Friday. This high pressure will drift east of the area resulting
in warm, and continued dry weather under southwest flow through
the weekend.

Used the super blend of models and bias corrected SREF models
for temperatures through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

A strong upper level low pressure system in the northern stream
will drive a sfc cold front over the OH Valley Sunday night. A
second low pressure system at the sfc will produce southwest
flow, increasing winds, and dewpoints by Monday night into
Tuesday. Both features will become in phase to enhance showers
or storms Monday through Tuesday. Allowed PoPs to increase to
likely for now across the entire area for Monday through
Tuesday.

Went with the blend of models for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 130 AM Friday...

Low level flow should be strong enough through the morning to
keep valley fog at a minimum. Dense fog should remain very close
to the rivers. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will
persist through today with high pressure overhead.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Still some concern at EKN for IFR fog, as
low level flow may weaken enough there before sunrise.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 10/20/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and
in rain at times early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.