Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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525
FXUS61 KRLX 202339
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
735 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front tonight into Sunday. Cool high pressure then takes hold
for the early and middle part of next week. Next cold front
approaches next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...

Updated chances of precipitation to increase pops ahead of a line of
showers moving into ne WV this evening.


As of 155 PM Saturday...

Last day of the humid airmass for a while.

Cold front...moving at a decent pace...now east of the Mississippi
River and pushing east. General model agreement brings the front
into the middle Ohio Valley in the 06Z tonight time frame. After
airmass convection wanes this evening...expecting overall cloud
cover increases ahead of the front...with more showers and a few
storms developing. Models are hinting at a couple different bands
of convection as the front moves in...but nothing expected on the
severe side for now in the SPC general thunder outlook.

New Canadian airmass advecting in to the CWA will provide lower
dewpoints and temperatures to be seen Sunday and into the short
term. The dewpoint decreases may be on the slow side...but should
be falling during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

By Sunday night, the cold front will be far east and south of the
area. Behind this front, a sfc high pressure with center over the
central plains extends east into southeast OH and into WV.

Drier air moves in with the high pressure. Expect mainly clear
skies and moderate temperatures. Initially, it will be cooler
Monday, but temperatures will rise once again Thursday and Friday
under deep south to southwest flow.

Another cold front crosses on Friday.

Used a combination of bias corrected SREF and the super blend for
temperatures through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Wednesday will be dry. However, a cold front will approach by
Friday. Convection is expected over the warm sector Thursday due
to diurnal heating and some forcing.

Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday
with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday
and Saturday next week.

Good chances for showers and storms along the cold front Friday.

Followed WPC for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM Saturday...

Several bands of showers will cause restrictions overnight ahead of
a strong cold front. Winds in advance of the cold front will prevent
fog from forming at most locations. The cold front will push through
Sunday morning...causing some more restrictions. Conditions will
quickly improve behind the front...becoming VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except in timing of showers after the
first several hours.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions with showers and
thunderstorms could vary in timing and intensity later tonight and
Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Fog possible most mornings early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY/26



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