Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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408
FXUS61 KRLX 191029
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak front crosses the area today. Upper level high pressure
dominates for the remainder of work week with hotter afternoon
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM update. No significant change.

Previous discussion... Enough northwest flow aloft to drive the
last short wave thru the area this morning...which will then help
to drive the front just to our north southward across the area
today. Behind the exiting short wave this morning will be drier
air aloft spreading southward out ahead of the front itself. Will
account for widely scattered morning showers ahead of the short
wave...but drier air aloft feeding southeastward will help limit
the coverage of showers and possible a storm ahead of the front to
mainly the afternoon and in the south. Most of any convection in
the south will shut off fairly quickly this evening with loss of
heating...and with arrival of drier air. So look for clouds area
wide early...generally decreasing from northwest to southeast
during the day. Little cooling behind the weak front today...will
bring similar highs to yesterday...upper 80s. However...drier air
working in tonight with weak high pressure will allow for cooler
temperatures tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure...surface and aloft to start the period. Mainly dry
and warm on Wednesday...with little chance for a shower or
storm...with warmer air aloft keeping atmosphere capped. Heat and
humidity will be on the increase as the week progresses...and upper
ridging builds eastward into the region. Nam and ECMWF indicating
the possibility of a shortwave rounding the ridge and moving
southeast into the region Thursday night into Friday...generating
showers and thunderstorms. For now elected to add just a slight
chance across the north due to model disagreement and in
coordination with surrounding neighbors. Biggest story of the period
will be the increasing heat and humidity...with heat indices
possibly making it into the lower 100s across much of the lowlands
by Friday into the weekend. Added a mention for the possibility of a
heat advisory in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
During the extended period...the upper ridge continues to be the
dominate feature. This could bring a mini heat wave for this
weekend as most areas will see highs at 90 and above from Friday
through at least Sunday. The Euro and GFS are in pretty good
agreement in having the ridge flattening out on Sunday. Weak
waves moving through the flow could kick off some showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday...
Weak disturbance moving thru eastern WV/southwest VA early this
morning with mainly clouds. Otherwise...weak front drops south
across the area today with widely scattered mainly afternoon
convection southern coal fields and mountains. Weak high pressure
then takes over Tuesday night.

Til 14z...Ceilings with disturbance over eastern WV and southwest
VA ranging from 4000-6000 feet lowlands to 1500-3000 feet
mountains.
After 14z...decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast in low
lands behind the front...and ceilings 3500-4500 feet southern coal
fields and central/southern mountains with widely scattered
showers and a possible tstm.

After 23z...generally clear...except SCT 4000-6000 feet AGL
southern mountains. Dense river valley fog forming 07z-10z
affecting major terminals with ifr/lifr conditions.

Light and variable to calm winds...except west to northwest winds
4-8 kts during the day.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection today in the south may be less
than forecast. River valley fog tonight maybe more widespread than
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Local ifr in predawn valley fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JMV



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