Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 200942
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
542 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front today followed by a cold front tonight. Upper
disturbance passes Tuesday night. High pressure Wednesday night
and Thursday. Warm front Friday. Cold front over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 540 AM Monday...
Elected to increase cloud cover a little quicker than previously
forecast, as satellite imagery indicating increasing clouds
across our west from convection across the Great Lakes
Region/Midwest.

As of 310 AM Monday...

The active weather pattern continues across the region. Still have
an area of stubborn low clouds across northeastern parts of the CWA,
but these should gradually continue to erode this morning, as high
pressure and drier air continues to take hold. However, mid and high
clouds will gradually take its place as the day progresses today.

Warm frontal boundary, associated with low pressure across the
central U.S. will gradually nudge its way east and north into the
region later today, possibly kicking off isold showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. In addition, some of
the near term models such as the HRRR seem to indicate the
possibility of convection, which will develop across the midwest
today, moving southeast into our region this afternoon. With weak
instability, not expecting anything severe, although small hail is a
possibility due to freezing levels below 10k feet. Showers, along
with isold thunderstorms will increase in coverage later tonight, as
a cold front, and upper level disturbance move into the region.

Made no significant changes to previous temperatures in the forecast
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 420 AM Monday...

Tuesday morning finds a cold front at least half the way through
the forecast area, and an upper level wave moving off to the
east. The cold front slips southward, through the remainder of
the area, by Tuesday afternoon, taking any showers with it. Left
a small chance for thunder in the extreme south midday Tuesday,
just before the front moves through there.

Models show a flat wave moving across the area Tuesday Night,
bringing about a renewed chance for precipitation. Given the
sloping baroclinic zone on the north side of the front south of
the area, we are looking at mainly mid and upper level moisture
and hence light precipitation.

The colder air moving in behind the front may allow a
transition from rain to snow from north to south overnight
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with very light
accumulations possible in the mountains. Cloud temperatures
favoring crystal growth and dry air below the cloud base favor a
transition of any precipitation to snow during this time.

Strong high pressure featuring cold and very dry air dominates
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, as it passes north of the
area.

Temperatures close to central guidance including a very cold
Thursday morning, about ten degrees below normal, for a hard
freeze for any agricultural interests.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 AM Monday...

Warm advection precipitation may scoot across northern portions
of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The retreating
cold air may hang on long enough for snow furthest east, across
northeastern WV.

The area breaks out into a warm sector Friday afternoon into
Saturday. A cold front approaches later Saturday and is likely
to cross later Saturday night or Sunday, ahead of which thunder
is possible. Low pressure approaching from the west on Monday
may lead to a continued or renewed chance for precipitation.

Have lows occurring early Thursday night as warm advection
develops overnight. Otherwise temperatures close to central
guidance, which is a little below the MEX over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

Still an area of MVFR cigs across parts of southeast Ohio and
northern WV. This will gradually continue to lift out of the
area, with all TAF sites predicted to be VFR by 13Z.

Mainly VFR conditions for the remainder of today, with light
southerly surface winds. There is a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms, mainly after 18-21Z, and mainly across
southeast Ohio and central WV, although a shower or storm cannot
be completely ruled out anywhere. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible in vicinity of storms, along with small hail.

Showers, and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage
after 00Z, with widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions
developing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of any showers or isolated
thunderstorms, and resultant MVFR or worse conditions may vary
from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in precipitation Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL


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