Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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294
FXUS61 KRLX 141039
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
639 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather to start the work and school week. High
pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but returning to
unsettled pattern to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

Surface trough and upper level ripple/vort max now pushing
showers into the forecast area from the southwest. Expect this
trend to continue into mid morning. Have likely POPs across the
mountains of WV into SW VA today, with scattered showers across
the WV lowlands tapering off to isolated shower mention along
the Ohio River.

Models -- other than the GFS -- show activity decreasing this
evening. But then increasing again overnight as another wave
passes. Opted to just go with isolated to scattered wording for
showers tonight along and east/south of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

Weak impulse early on Tuesday may bring some scattered showers,
but high pressure builds for a drier stretch of weather Tuesday
night through midday Thursday. A system approaches Thursday
afternoon for increased potential for showers/tstorms. Dynamics
suggest a small potential for stronger storms, but believe most
energy will be to our north for this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

An organized system moves to our northwest on Friday draping a
cold front through our region for showers and tstorms early.

High pressure builds Saturday for drier weather until the next
system arrives Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

Surface trough and upper level disturbance brining showers
today. With most of the activity expected to be light, only
included MVFR across the mountains.

Models fairly insistent on fog formation tonight, however also
expect fairly decent cloud cover remaining. Opted to include IFR
at typical sites due to rain today, but not very confident on
this solution.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and category in showers today may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week.
Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on
clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ



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