Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221750
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture to bring heavy showers/thunderstorms for the end
of the work week into early Saturday. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday,
with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Thursday...

No changes this morning.

As of 630 AM Thursday...

Bumped up pops in scattered range for CKB to EKN for another
hour or two, otherwise no other changes made at this time.

As of 140 AM Thursday...

Kept the low pops in across far north with isolated showers
through dawn in close proximity to a warm front. This boundary
will retreat off to the north later this morning. Attention
quickly turns to what will be the remnants of Cindy. Models
continue to be in good agreement on a piece of energy breaking
off from the circulation and advancing northeast into the area
late afternoon. There may be a few storms in advance of the main
area of rain. Despite the surge in pwats, this feature will be
progressive this evening, such that flooding concerns are low
tonight. QPF amounts of .50 to .75 inches will be common. Tried
to show a break late tonight across much of the area, before the
next slug of moisture works in from the west at dawn, affecting
mainly southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and western WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

Tropical moisture remains over the region on Friday, with a cold
front and the remaining circulation of Cindy moving through Friday
night into early Saturday. Models are in decent agreement with the
general pattern, although some small timing differences continue.
The big differences between models are still in the location of the
heavier precipitation bands. Models generally struggle in tropical
systems with this, so not a big surprise. The problem however is
where to post a flood watch. Confident that one will be needed, but
not confident on where.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

Upper level trough will provide unseasonably mild weather with low
humidity through this period. Models have several upper level
disturbances moving through the trough, but vary on the strength and
timing. Some light showers are possible with these disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z Thursday through 18Z Friday...

As of 135 PM Thursday...

Expect rain to move in after 23Z this evening from southwest to
northeast, with possible thunderstorms embedded within as well.
LArgely going with an MVFR forecast, although brief IFR is
usually a possibility at the onset of heavier rain, with the
visibilities coming up after the initial burst of rain.
Therefore, some additional TEMPO grids may be need to cover that
on the first hour of the rain.

Ceilings to degrade to MVFR after the passage of the rain/storms
across the entire area. Any ceilings that drop into the 1-2kft
range will come up slightly, but remain MVFR as winds increase
in the 12-15kt range with gusts 20-25kts, slightly higher for
the mountain terminals.

Should see some breaks in the rain/storms tomorrow on the back
end of the TAF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain into this evening may vary
an hour or so.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
     for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
     for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
     for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26



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