Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 171955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT BY FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEVELOPS AND TREKS EASTWARD...WHILE A COLD FRONT
IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL TREK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THUS NO NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING ANTICIPATED.

AS FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT AT
BEST...MAY ONLY SEE SPRINKLES...DUE TO WEAKENING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FOR NOW.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING...IF ABLE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAIN ZONES. WILL LEAVE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH DRY FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED WEAKENING COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS SLIM.  WILL
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE FURTHEST NORTH DEVELOPING DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB LOW OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. YET...EVEN THE 12Z GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE 06Z GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE OUR CWA DRY...WITH
PCPN MENTIONING POPS JUST OFF TO OUR SE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST.

DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY DROP IN THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...BUT WITH DRYING THE USUAL
SCATTERING OF BRUSH FIRES FIGURED DURING LATE AFTERNOONS.

SO OVERALL...IF CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...A RELATIVELY
PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER TO AROUND 5-10K FEET AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 09Z...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 09Z...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER AT TIMES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.