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000
FXUS61 KRNK 242338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A TURN BACK TO MORE SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WELL ABOVE THE
SFC AND WINDS ALOFT AREA NOT TOO STRONG TO WARRANT ADVISORY OF
GREATER THAN 45 MPH. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS THE SUN
SETS THAT A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCURS AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW COLD IT WILL
GET GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND HOW FAST THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN SLIDE IN A
WEAKEN THE WINDS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED FROST IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL SEE AT LEAST TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WV INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF BATH. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE SUMMERS AND MONROE COUNTY WV.

FURTHER EAST EXPECT MORE OF GRADIENT KEEPING THE TEMPS ELEVATED BUT
STILL COOL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE CU/SC OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DRY UP TO CLEAR
SKIES BY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SC INTO
MIDNIGHT IN THE WV MTNS...PER RUC. SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH. DESPITE THE COOL WEATHER TODAY GIVEN THE TEMPS WERE MILDER
BEFORE DAWN NO RECORD COLD HIGHS WERE REACHED FOR MAY 24TH.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. NAM/CMC SHOWING A BIT OF CIRRUS OR AC
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT SKY COVER UNDER 50
PERCENT.

FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH STILL ENOUGH GRADIENT WITH THE SFC
HIGH STAYING WEST OF US FOR A BREEZE OF 5 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70
EAST...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR
CALM MOST AREAS...WE DO START TO GET SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WHILE A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED...WE
STILL EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS AROUND 40 COMMON FOR OTHER
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 40S.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND RIDGES WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOME 25KT WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ043>045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KM/WP