Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 161802 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 202 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Sunny skies give way to clouds by tomorrow as a front arrives from the north. This will move through as a dry front but it will usher in gusty winds and cooler temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmer days this week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... 1. Increasing clouds and winds overnight into tomorrow with a dry frontal passage. 2. Still expecting mild high temperatures Sunday, but cooler compared to today. Tranquil day is ongoing with sunny skies and mild temperatures under high pressure. A dry front moves through the area from north to south overnight into Sunday morning. This will mainly create cloud cover for overnight and into tomorrow, as well as reinvigorate westerly winds, which may gust to 15 to 25 mph Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s for most with the cloud cover. High temperatures Sunday will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today in the mountains, with mid to upper 60s forecast for the Piedmont. That said, it will feel cooler with the wind. 1000-850mb thicknesses do start to tumble Sunday night, indicating cooler weather to follow. Confidence in the near term is high.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1255 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Windy and colder 2. Isolated light rain/snow showers for parts of Southeast West Virginia Monday night into Tuesday night. Sunday night into Monday the axis of an upper level longwave trough is expected to approach, and then across our region, continuing east of the area Monday night. Limited precipitation is expected with this feature, but northwest low level winds in the wake of its passage are expected to increase. What limited moisture there will be is expected to lifted upslope across portions of Southeast West Virginia and clouds and light snow showers. These snow showers are expected to dissipate by Tuesday as the low level winds back to the west and decrease. Temperatures during this portions of the forecast are expected to tend cooler Monday and Tuesday. The strongest winds during this time period look to occur around Monday evening. At this point there is expected to be a pairing of 850mb winds around 35 to 40 kts and six hour pressure rises of around 5 to 8 mb. This will be enough to at least by very gusty across the region, with areas near the crest of the Blue Ridge potentially near or just surpassing wind advisory criteria. Further monitoring of guidance will be needed to track the trend of this potential event. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1225 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. 2. Potentially wet Friday and Saturday but with low confidence in the details. The weather pattern across the region during this first half of this portion of the forecast will be associated with dry, northwest flow on the west side of a broad Southeast Canadian trough. As compared to yesterday`s solution, there is less confidence in rain Thursday night into Friday. Model guidance still offers a trough/low heading east of the Four Corners are on Thursday that progresses into the Deep South by Friday and potentially a northern stream system that heads through the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, timing is now about twelve hours later for precipitation arrival for our area, with less confidence regarding a merger of the northern and southern systems, and with increasing confidence that without a merger, the southern system will remain too far south, and then eventually east of our area for much of impact to our weather. There is also low confidence in our weather for this coming Saturday. Timing and location of the main southern low, or the merged systems, is highly variable among the guidance. However, there is a greater consensus than not that its influence will lean our forecast more on the wet side than on the dry side. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to trend slightly cooler each day, but not be too far away from climatological norms for this time of year. Confidence in the Wednesday and Thursday portion of the forecast are moderate to high with confidence low Friday into Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 115 PM EDT Saturday... May see some fair weather cumulus on satellite this afternoon, but we remain VFR through the overnight hours. SCT to BKN mid and high clouds will develop during the overnight hours. A dry front will arrive from the north early Sunday, spreading mostly VFR but some MVFR ceilings (BLF, LWB) in from the north. These ceilings will linger until close to 17/18Z before improving. Otherwise, mainly westerly winds will weaken overnight, before increasing to sustained 10-13 kts with higher gusts through the day Sunday. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday, except for possible intermittent MVFR conditions in mountain snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds are expected, especially Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Speeds will be strongest in the mountains. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 155 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds and drier air arriving tomorrow through Thursday. A couple dry frontal passages will usher in west winds beginning Sunday, with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range. Winds turn more northwesterly Monday before turning westerly again Tuesday. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be even stronger than Sunday, with gusts to 30 to 40 mph for the mountains during the daytime hours. Monday through Thursday moisture decreases, yielding minimum RH values of 20 to 35% for most. Also during this time, no precipitation is forecast, save for possible light snow or rain showers for the Greenbrier Valley. Rain chances return for the entire region Friday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...SH FIRE WEATHER...SH

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