Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 200844 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 344 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PASS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE UP THE COAST ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 222 AM EST SATURDAY... LIGHT PRECIP EVENT TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO THE SE WITH ANY PRECIP OVER THE REGION PRIMARILY DRIVEN VIA WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN MID LEVEL WAVES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE BEING WITH THE LEAD SOUTHERNMOST IMPULSE LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS NW N CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND COINCIDE WITH WEAK SE FLOW UNDER THE LEFT FRONT OF THE PASSING SPEED MAX ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AXIS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR EARLY ON WITH SOME OF THIS SPREADING EAST BUT IN A DIMINISHING STATE GIVEN DAMPENING SUPPORT AND RESIDUAL DRY AIR. WITH THE LATEST MODELS ESPCLY SREF PRINTING OUT QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE SW AND KEPT EXTENSION OF THE GOING CHANCE POPS ESPCLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING A HALF INCH OF SNOW AT ELEVATION FROM I-77 AND POINTS WEST EARLY ON BUT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES AS COULD EASILY END UP BEING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AT WORSE PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ELSW EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO IF AT ALL AS SEEN OFF THE LATEST HRRR. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY AFTER SUCH A COLD START WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST LATER ON. THUS TRENDED VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO NORTH WHILE DECREASING A CAT OR SO ESPCLY SE WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LAST TO EXIT. WEAK RIDGING TO THE NW DIPS BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING DRYING ALOFT TO TAKE SHAPE UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN QUESTION AND PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING TODAY WITH THE CURRENT EVENT. GFS REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH WEAK NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE THE NAM WETTER UNDER A LIGHT LOW LEVEL EAST/SE COMPONENT THAT KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD POSE A FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUE ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WITH LOTS OF FREEZING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AROUND BUT QUITE IFFY. THUS WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT WHILE LEAVING OUT ANY -FZDZ MENTION FOR NOW DESPITE DECENT DEPTH TO MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION OFF THE NAM. LOW TEMPS ALSO REFLECT MOISTURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAV MOS WELL INTO THE 20S MOST SPOTS WHILE THE MET MOS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO CLOUDS. FOR NOW...TWEAKED DOWN IN THE VALLEYS AND BLUE RIDGE WHILE LEAVING THINGS A BIT WARMER WEST-SW WHERE LEFTOVER CLOUDS MORE OF A GOOD BET IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS POSSIBLE PRECIP. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY... 500 MB PATTERN SUNDAY HAD SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING. THEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROF BEGINS DIGGING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WPC IS FAVORING THE TIMING OFF THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY STRONGER SURFACE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BY MONDAY MORNING...WARM NOSE ABOVE WEDGE REACHES TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. POCKET OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE ON EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AT LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS. AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STORM WAS STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RISE SINCE REGION WILL BE IN A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WITH PRECIPITATION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY... WEAK CAD EVENT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN MOS WITH READINGS FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. MODEL CONSENSUS OF GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT A SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY TUESDAY AND THEN EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U. S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION....THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN. COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50 IN PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON THURSDAY AS A 50 TO 55 KNOT 850MB JET PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS TROF CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDE OFF THE COAST. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1125 PM EST FRIDAY... HIGH CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CIGS IN SOUTHEAST WV NORTH OF KLWB AND KBLF ARE FORECAST REMAIN NORTH THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THE TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED AS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER OUR AREA WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED BEGIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BETWEEN 10Z-13Z AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IN OUR AREA. CIGS WILL FALL...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH LITTLE RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD ARRIVE AT MOST SITES BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT FAIRLY QUICK WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP CLOUDS...LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS...AT KBLF AND KLWB AND POSSIBILITY KBCB LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITIES...WINDS AND CEILINGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ONCE THIS FEATURE EXITS WILL SEE THE NEXT WAVE ALONG THE COAST BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS COLDER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WHICH MIGHT IMPACT LWB IF TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH. RAIN WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD BE SOME WINTRY WX AS WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY EVENT. EXPECT POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AND POOR FLYING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...PH/WP

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