Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 161802
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
202 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Sunny skies give way to clouds by tomorrow as a front arrives
from the north. This will move through as a dry front but it
will usher in gusty winds and cooler temperatures through
Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmer days this
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...
1. Increasing clouds and winds overnight into tomorrow with a
dry frontal passage.
2. Still expecting mild high temperatures Sunday, but cooler
compared to today.
Tranquil day is ongoing with sunny skies and mild temperatures
under high pressure. A dry front moves through the area from
north to south overnight into Sunday morning. This will mainly
create cloud cover for overnight and into tomorrow, as well as
reinvigorate westerly winds, which may gust to 15 to 25 mph
Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s for most with
the cloud cover. High temperatures Sunday will be about 5 to 10
degrees cooler than today in the mountains, with mid to upper
60s forecast for the Piedmont. That said, it will feel cooler
with the wind. 1000-850mb thicknesses do start to tumble Sunday
night, indicating cooler weather to follow.
Confidence in the near term is high.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1255 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Windy and colder
2. Isolated light rain/snow showers for parts of Southeast West
Virginia Monday night into Tuesday night.
Sunday night into Monday the axis of an upper level longwave
trough is expected to approach, and then across our region,
continuing east of the area Monday night. Limited precipitation
is expected with this feature, but northwest low level winds in
the wake of its passage are expected to increase. What limited
moisture there will be is expected to lifted upslope across
portions of Southeast West Virginia and clouds and light snow
showers. These snow showers are expected to dissipate by Tuesday
as the low level winds back to the west and decrease.
Temperatures during this portions of the forecast are expected
to tend cooler Monday and Tuesday.
The strongest winds during this time period look to occur around
Monday evening. At this point there is expected to be a pairing
of 850mb winds around 35 to 40 kts and six hour pressure rises
of around 5 to 8 mb. This will be enough to at least by very
gusty across the region, with areas near the crest of the Blue
Ridge potentially near or just surpassing wind advisory
criteria. Further monitoring of guidance will be needed to track
the trend of this potential event.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1225 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.
2. Potentially wet Friday and Saturday but with low confidence
in the details.
The weather pattern across the region during this first half of
this portion of the forecast will be associated with dry,
northwest flow on the west side of a broad Southeast Canadian
trough. As compared to yesterday`s solution, there is less
confidence in rain Thursday night into Friday. Model guidance
still offers a trough/low heading east of the Four Corners are
on Thursday that progresses into the Deep South by Friday and
potentially a northern stream system that heads through the Ohio
Valley on Friday. However, timing is now about twelve hours
later for precipitation arrival for our area, with less
confidence regarding a merger of the northern and southern
systems, and with increasing confidence that without a merger,
the southern system will remain too far south, and then
eventually east of our area for much of impact to our weather.
There is also low confidence in our weather for this coming
Saturday. Timing and location of the main southern low, or the
merged systems, is highly variable among the guidance. However,
there is a greater consensus than not that its influence will
lean our forecast more on the wet side than on the dry side.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to
trend slightly cooler each day, but not be too far away from
climatological norms for this time of year.
Confidence in the Wednesday and Thursday portion of the forecast
are moderate to high with confidence low Friday into Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...
May see some fair weather cumulus on satellite this afternoon,
but we remain VFR through the overnight hours. SCT to BKN mid
and high clouds will develop during the overnight hours. A dry
front will arrive from the north early Sunday, spreading mostly
VFR but some MVFR ceilings (BLF, LWB) in from the north. These
ceilings will linger until close to 17/18Z before improving.
Otherwise, mainly westerly winds will weaken overnight, before
increasing to sustained 10-13 kts with higher gusts through the
day Sunday.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday, except for
possible intermittent MVFR conditions in mountain snow showers
Monday night into Tuesday.
Gusty northwest winds are expected, especially Monday afternoon
through Tuesday night. Speeds will be strongest in the
mountains.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Gusty winds and drier air arriving tomorrow through Thursday.
A couple dry frontal passages will usher in west winds beginning
Sunday, with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range. Winds turn more
northwesterly Monday before turning westerly again Tuesday.
Winds Monday through Wednesday will be even stronger than
Sunday, with gusts to 30 to 40 mph for the mountains during the
daytime hours.
Monday through Thursday moisture decreases, yielding minimum RH
values of 20 to 35% for most. Also during this time, no
precipitation is forecast, save for possible light snow or rain
showers for the Greenbrier Valley. Rain chances return for the
entire region Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...SH