Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 291837 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 237 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN OUT TO SEA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1145 AM EDT MONDAY... MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. UPSTREAM CLEARING IS ALREADY TAKIN PLACE WEST OF THE VA/WV BORDER. DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE COASTAL CAROLINAS DOWN INTO NORTH FLORIDA CAPITOLIZING ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING A RIBBON OF PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PROVIDE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF...POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE...ACROSS OUR VA/NC PIEDMONT SOUTH AND EAST OF DANVILLE. MODELS BRING DRIER AIR INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ERODING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HARDER PRESSED TO CLEAR B4 SUNSET. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COOLEST WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS...REMAINING IN THE 60S. NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...THICKEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR...THE GROUND WILL RADIATE MORE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY... UPPER TROF CURVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHICH TRACKS EASTWARD TO OFF THE ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GULF DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND WARMING OF THICKNESS EXPECTED TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH ROTATES EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S. THE BULK OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY HELP SCOUR CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE THEY SPREAD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHAPED HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MOS FROM AROUND 70 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED CONTINUITY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY... THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND BREAK THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN /0.25/ WILL FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS /0.10/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WE DO EXPECTED SHOWERS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES ARE NOT LOOKING STRONG...THEREFORE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE ALSO MOVING THIS FRONT FASTER ACROSS THE REGION...CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE TO NO GREAT LAKES TRAJECTORY...WE WILL JUST CALL SATURDAY A RAIN FREE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY... STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SKIES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. SKIES WHICH CLEARED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE SEEN THE FORMATION OF CU/TCU WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN OH/KY INTO WV. THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FORMATION OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONFIDENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN FOR OUR LESS PRONE TAF SITES...SUCH AS KROA...THAT DO NOT TYPICALLY HAVE FOG. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH PERIOD OF LIFR LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEY AIRPORTS...KBCB...KLWB...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE DENSE RIVER FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK EACH MORNING. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/RCS AVIATION...PM

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