Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 160757
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry over the weekend with a stronger front arriving Sunday with
colder air ushering in to start the new workweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry Saturday with still above average temperatures.
Area of light precip along the cold front has exited stage east
and now have some upslope cold advection stratocu persisting in
the mountains. This should scatter/mix out by mid morning and
allow for a pleasant start to the weekend under mostly clear
skies and temps across much of the area still making it into the
60s (near 70 in the Piedmont) as we stay in largely zonal flow
aloft. Another disturbance and tightening pressure gradient will
approach the area later tonight which should mainly increase
some mid level cloud cover and enhance west winds. Not expecting
any precip with this feature.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Mild through Sunday before a rapid cool down.
2. Gusty to very gusty northwest winds expected.
3. Limited amounts and coverage of rain/snow showers for SE WV.
During this portion of the forecast, troughing across the US East
Coast is expected to amplify. First, one sharp shortwave trough is
expected to head east through the Great Lakes region. An 850mb front
will cross our region Saturday night into Sunday in response. A
second shortwave trough is expected shortly after the passage of the
first which is expected to progress into a longwave trough centered
over most of central CONUS by Monday morning. The axis of this
longwave trough is expected to be above our area by the start of
Monday evening.
The result of the above transition is expected to be the following.
Winds will turn gusty from the northwest Sunday night into Monday.
Southeast West Virginia upslope rain/snow showers will be possible
during this time with dry weather elsewhere. Monday night into
Tuesday, with the passage of main trough axis we expect a boost in
the northwest winds, leading to a continuation, if not a bit of an
increase, in the Southeast West Virginia upslope precipitation.
Although, but Monday night, drier air entering the region may
mitigate the ability for any notable precipitation amounts.
East of the crest of the Blue Ridge, these persistent northwest
gusty winds will lead to subsidence which should greatly limit cloud
cover, add a bit of compressional warming to slightly offset the
impacts of cold air advection, and allow for likely drier than model
forecast dew points to occur at the surface.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to be
above normal through Sunday, but switch quickly to near or slightly
below normal by Monday.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Mainly dry through Thursday.
2. Turning much wetter Thursday night into Friday.
3. Trending milder through the period.
During this portion of the forecast, the synoptic pattern is
expected to transition from a relatively dry northwest flow cross
our region Tuesday/Wednesday to a much wetter pattern by Friday.
This will be thanks to low pressure on Tuesday near the Four Corners
region, slowly progressing eastward and deepening as it moves through
the Deep South on Friday. As early as Thursday night, southerly flow
in advance of this low will start advecting moisture into our region
within a region of isentropic lift. For Friday, there are
differences within the guidance as to the track of the low, but all
in some capacity offer a wet Friday for the region.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to
trend milder through the period.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high on the
overall synoptic transition, but low in regards to the specifics on
the path and impact of the upper low on Friday.
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.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...
MVFR stratus deck persists near the sites except for KLYH and
KDAN and IFR or lower cigs are near KBLF. This should scatter
out near 11-13z this morning and allow for mostly clear skies.
Winds should be under 10 kts from the NW to west for the
mountain sites and SW for the Piedmont sites. Some alto cloud
coverage could come into the area this evening/overnight along
with some increasing winds.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is medium to high.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions will prevail through much of this period, except
sub-VFR cigs in the mountains behind a front Sunday night into
Tuesday with possible snow showers.
Gusty northwest winds will also be strong at times Sun night-
Tuesday.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
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SYNOPSIS...WP/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...VFJ/AB