Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 212353 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 753 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong cold front is just off the Virginia coast early this evening with tight pressure gradient situated between low pressure just southeast of Long Island, and high pressure over the midwest. This high will move southeast Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front will cross through the Mid Atlantic region on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday... Tight pressure gradient creating brisk/breezy to windy conditions this evening. However, the 00z RNK sounding coming in denotes 30-35kt 8h jet. This is about 10 kts less than latest model depictions, and area obs are showing majority of wind gusts below advisory levels. The pressure rises are not that impressive but will still see some good low level winds at least into early overnight. At this time no changes to the wind advisory, but not as confident that most will see gusts higher than 30-35 mph...wind advisory being gusts over 45 mph. The windiest places will be higher elevations of the NC mountains to the Grayson Highlands and Blue Ridge, as well as the Alleghanys, generally above 3000 ft. Otherwise, looking at the showers over southeast WV into portions of SW Virginia. HRRR showing this activity weakening and being more confined to the western slopes of SE WV overnight so cutting pops back some. Temperatures had plummeted to the mid to upper 30s across some of the higher elevations above 4000 ft in NC and VA, with most of the west mainly in the mid 40s to around 50, and in the upper 50s east. Not seeing threat of a freeze warning, except above 4000 ft like Beech Mtn NC and Mt Rogers where lows could dip into the upper 20s. The rest of the mountains will be in the mid to upper 30s but way too much wind and cloud cover for any frost. Previous valid discussion... Western upslope areas will be gradually clearing out Saturday morning, which will limit heating. Again, MAV numbers looked reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... The low amplitude upper pattern is not very progressive as the closed low over New England slides up into eastern Canada and keeps a broad trof over the northeast as a ridge develops over the Rockies. Aside from some lingering clouds west of the Blue Ridge Saturday night, this pattern will keep fair weather with breezy conditions in the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeast and low pressure under the closed low through Sunday. A surge of short wave energy will spill over the ridge and push a weak low from the Great Lakes region late Sunday to off the mid Atlantic coast by Monday morning. This will initiate another round of strong gusty winds Sunday night and send a plume of low level moisture into the region from the northwest. This will result in a good amount of clouds west of the Blue Ridge and maybe some upslope rain showers for the western slopes late Sunday night into Monday. With surface high pressure over the southeast giving us west to southwest winds, warmer temperatures will start making their way into the region and highs on Sunday will be seasonably in the 60s, a bit cooler on Monday west of the Blue Ridge as cooler air starts filtering in. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... High pressure will move in from the upper midwest and bring fair weather with slightly below normal temperatures to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. The high will then take up a wedge position east of the Appalachians as a vigorous short wave amplifies and drops out of the upper midwest. This looks to bring a chance of precipitation back to our forecast for Thursday with some additional upslope precipitation west of the Blue Ridge lingering into Friday. Temperatures will generally be near seasonal norms through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Friday... MVFR or lower expected in the mountains with IFR or worse at BLF with upslope flow continuing into Saturday morning. The showers at BLF will be diminishing by midnight. Appears VFR sct/bkn at ROA and LYH overnight then clearing Saturday. Will see winds staying gusty at all sites through Saturday with highest gusts around 30 kts possible at ROA/BCB overnight. The lower clouds will lift Saturday but expect at least a broken ceiling of 3-5kft clouds at BLF/LWB through most of the day, maybe scattering at LWB after 20z. Extended aviation discussion... Saturday night through Monday...Widespread VFR. No flight restrictions. High pressure building in over the Tennessee Valley then southeast United States will result in lighter wind speeds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each morning, otherwise widespread VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for VAZ009-012>020- 022>024. NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for NCZ001-002-018. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.