Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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750 FXUS61 KRNK 202009 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 309 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure aloft and at the surface will build over the region tonight into early Monday. Temperatures will continue to moderate from the recent Arctic cold as this occurs. A strong system will move from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley through Monday, passing through our region Tuesday. Widespread showers and gusty winds are expected to accompany this weather system, followed by much colder temperatures and mountain snow showers into midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 309 PM EST Saturday... Arctic high pressure across our region will slowly drift east tonight and push off the North Carolina coast Sunday. Ahead of low pressure in the central United State, moisture was tracking northeast from the Gulf. Lower clouds associated with this moisture were pushing into western portions of our forecast area. A few showers are possible in the west tonight as a warm front lifts north through the region. With light winds and low level moisture, decided to add some patchy fog to southern portions of the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will range from around 30 degrees with snowpack to near 40 degrees along the ridges. The closed upper low over the Midwest will open up and moves into New England early next week. High pressure will push out into the Atlantic ocean Sunday resulting in a warm southwest flow. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the northwest Sunday morning. High temperatures on Sunday will vary from the upper 40s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 309 PM EST Saturday... Warm front lifts north Sunday night into Monday with warm advection and southwest flow increasing. Will see some sun in the east Monday though cloudiness will move in aloft quickly ahead of the front. Models overall still advertising a line of showers, low topped with limited instability. Shear is high and shallow convection seems likely where winds aloft gust to the surface along the line of showers. At the moment SPC has not threat of severe, but cannot rule out some strong winds Monday evening/overnight, mainly southwest over the NC mountains/foothills. Will see area of showers lift out by midday Tuesday with lingering rain showers in the west. Colder air arrives Tuesday afternoon in the mountains with a few snow showers possible but moisture appears to dry out fast. Expect post-front winds Tuesday to possibly reach advisory levels along the Blue Ridge with 8h jet of 40-50kts and 4-6mb 6 hr pressure rises. Cloudiness may inhibit some of the stronger gusts. These winds along with potential gusty winds with showers will be mentioned in the HWO. Temperatures in the 50s to around 60 Monday cool to the 40s Tuesday in the mountains with falling temps over the higher terrain.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EST Saturday... Overall pattern stays progressive with shortwave moving across midweek with limited moist, with brief cool down, but still close to normal temps for late January. 5h heights build late in the week while, strong trough shifts into the western U.S. As this strong trough moves into the middle of the country Saturday, southwest flow increases over us with moisture shifting toward our area. Surface high should be off the mid- Atlantic coast, but in-situ type wedge seems to set up allowing for potential of wintry mix during Saturday although at the moment will carry mainly rain, mixed at times with snow, and overall looks like Sat night-Sunday are wetter with wedge breaking.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1240 PM EST Saturday... SCT to BKN MVFR clouds in the western mountains this afternoon into tonight. While VFR conditions will prevail at the taf site this afternoon into this evening especially east of the Blue Ridge. The low clouds will gradually spread further east from their current edge this evening into tonight. In the western taf site, MVFR ceilings will become more common tonight. Overnight, the higher terrain, such as KBLF, which will see IFR- LIFR ceilings late tonight into Sunday morning. Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR through the TAF valid period. However, if the ceilings drops below 005 at KBLF, MVFR visibilities in fog/mist will be possible. MVFR conditions may continue in the west Sunday, while VFR is expected in the east. Winds at WSW-WNW 7-12kts this afternoon with low end gusts 20-25kts, mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge will diminish to less than 10kts overnight. With strong winds aloft on the west side of the high, some LLWS will be present, especially At KROA,KBLF and KLWB. Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds through the TAF valid period. Extended Discussion... Sub-VFR conditions will start to return to the entire area Sunday night into and through Tuesday night as a cold front and its associated precipitation moves through the region. Strong convective showers are expected with this weather system, including a potential QLCS and isolated thunderstorms. Very gusty northwest winds return to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday on the backside of the departing system. Lingering sub-VFR conditions possible across SE WV thanks to strong upslope flow and residual low level moisture. Drier weather expected Thursday into Friday. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 325 PM EST Friday... NOAA Weather Radio, WXL60 (Roanoke Transmitter) which broadcasts at 162.475 MHz remains off the air. The phone company reported that the circuit line had been cut and will take until Monday January 22nd to fix it. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...KK/RAB EQUIPMENT...WP

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