Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290706 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary slides to the mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning, while a tropical depression closes in toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The front then steers the tropical system off the northeast midweek. A stronger front arrives Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 238 AM EDT Monday... Surface high situated from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic to stay in place today. Meanwhile, tropical depression eight resides east of the Outer Banks. Models show this system shifting west- northwest toward Cape Hatteras by 12z Tuesday. Actually could see some mid and high clouds from it today in the eastern half of the forecast area. Pattern seems similar to yesterday over the mountains and models favor an area of convergence into Southeast WV and far Southwest Virginia this afternoon, so kept chance pops there with slight chance into portions of the New River Valley. With a light northeast to east wind at the surface with upper ridge overhead still expect a warmer than normal day but humidity should not be stifling. Highs will range from around 90 in the Piedmont, to mid to upper 80s in the west, but cooler on the ridges. Models subside any convection this evening but GFS showing some increase in 8h moisture overnight. This may seem overdone but could see some strato-cu/stratus somewhat across the Blue Ridge and east late. Will mainly stay mostly clear to partly cloudy but something to watch. Low temperatures will be in the 60s most areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Monday... A weak frontal boundary will enter the region on Tuesday and stall through Wednesday fueled partly by weak shortwave troughs moving eastward along the U.S./Canadian border. The presence of the front will help be the focus for isolated to scattered showers across the region. A more substantial cold front will enter the area on Thursday and be southeast of the region by Thursday night as a strong longwave trough develops across the eastern U.S. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly cooler each day. However, readings will still average about five degrees above normal for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday with lows both of those days close to ten degrees above normal. Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs around normal and lows about five degrees above normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 400 PM EDT Sunday... Models continue to advertise a much sharper upper level long wave trough developing from Ontario Canada to the Mid Atlantic by the end of the week. A transition to a cooler drier airmass expected by Friday. In spite of the cooling and drying progged for our CWA, the tropics are forecast to be busy, with potential impacts to Florida and nearby states. The upper trough which sets up over the eastern US will likely play a large role in steering the near CONUS tropical systems during this period. Please refer to The National Hurricane Center for the latest information (WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 105 AM EDT Monday... Surface high sets up from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this period and wedges southwest into our area. Skies are VFR this morning with dewpoint depressions ranging from 1-2 degrees at LWB/BCB to 4-5 in the east. Setup favors at least MVFR fog at BCB and possibly LYH/DAN with IFR or worse at LWB. Kept forecast the same from previous forecast and clear the fog out after 12z. VFR through Monday and high confidence that a majority of the thunderstorms on Monday afternoon will remain just northwest of KLWB. This will be just ahead of a weak front the will approach the region Monday afternoon then dissipate by Monday night. Extended aviation discussion... Isolated diurnally driven convection will be possible Tue. Coverage will be limited in duration and area on all days and have minimal impact on the TAF sites. Another front will move into the region Wed into Thu with a better chance for showers/thunderstorms, followed by cooler and drier air for Friday. Most of the period looks VFR at this point, outside of the usual late night/early morning fog/low clouds. At this time, it does not appear that any tropical systems will impact the county warning area. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/MBS/WP

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