Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 190919
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
519 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Gusty west winds and low relative humidity levels will persist
today as the Mid-Atlantic remains situated between deep low
pressure to the north, and a large area of high pressure over
the southern Plains. A dry cold front will pass across the
central Appalachians on Wednesday afternoon. The next chance for
widespread rainfall is expected for Friday when low pressure
develops over the Gulf Coast region.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Gusty west winds and dry conditions will persist today.
Warmer with increased sunshine
2. Fire Danger Statement is in effect for counties across
southeast West Virginia, southwest Virginia and northwest North
Carolina today from 11 am through 8 pm.
3. Winds diminish slightly for tonight under mostly clear
skies. Not as chilly.
Radar indicates that snow shower activity from earlier this
evening has ended, and winds are gradually shift more from the
west as another deep low pressure system develops over the
northern Great Lakes. Clouds remain in place across the
mountains this morning, though satellite imagery indicates gaps
developing in the cloud cover.
For today, winds will shift increasingly southwesterly in
response to another low pressure system pushing east across the
northern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front advancing
southward toward the Ohio River Valley and, eventually, the
Appalachian chain. The southwesterly wind shift will help erode
the mountain cloudcover such that much of it is expected to have
dissipated by early afternoon. The combination of increased
sunshine, downslope windflow and very dry air (relative humidity
approaching 20 percent for much of the service area) in place
will allow for warmer temperatures today, ranging from the mid
40s to the low 50s along and west of the Blue Ridge, to the
mid/upper 50s further east. Winds will remain gusty today, with
gusts ranging from 25 mph to locally 40 mph, especially across
the higher mountain ridges.
The combination of dry air, gusty winds, and dry fuels such as
leaf litter, dead grasses, etc makes for an increased danger of
fires starting more easily and potentially burning out of
control. As such, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the
entire region today from 11 am through 8 pm. This is to advise
people to avoid any outdoor burning, and to be extra cautious
with any tools or equipment that may generate a flame of spark.
The dry air and mostly clear skies will allow allow winds to
diminish somewhat late tonight, the gusts will persist.
Overnight temperatures will not be as cool, generally falling
into the 30s for most of the region.
Confidence in the near term is high.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Windy conditions Wednesday and Wednesday night.
2. Potential fire weather concerns with the gusty winds and expected
low humidity
3. Weaker winds but still dry for Thursday.
An upper level trough axis pivots over the Appalachians
Wednesday, pushing a cold front over the region. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will take temporary residence over the
Gulf States, blocking moisture from moving northward through
Thursday. With limited moisture advection, no precipitation is
expected, possibly very little cloud cover as well. Deep
westerly flow and moderate pressure rises (7-10mb/6hrs) will
bring windy and gusty conditions to the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. One factor against issuing any wind headlines
is that the strongest pressures rises do not line-up when the
stronger cold air advection occurs.
Following the frontal passage, dry high pressure will track
across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, then over the
northeastern states Thursday. This high pressure system will
then wedge south into the Carolinas Thursday night.
Wednesday`s temperatures peak ahead of the dry cold front in
the mid to upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge and mid to upper 60s
east. Behind the front, Thursday`s high temperatures return to
normal readings.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 222 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Rain chances Friday into Friday night.
3. Dry Saturday into Tuesday with a warming trend.
A wedge of cold air will sink south into the Carolinas Thursday
night into Friday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track
over the Ozarks Thursday night to the southern Appalachians
mountains Friday. The surface low associated with this system
will move across northern FL and then off the GA/SC coast. On
Friday, moisture from this low pressure system will overrun the
wedge, bringing a round of rain to the area. This rain should
enhance the wedge, keeping the track of the surface low away
from our forecast area. Confidence is increasing for a good
soaking rain Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Cold high
pressure will follow in the wake of the low tracking north along
the east coast Saturday night into Sunday. Dry weather could
linger into Tuesday,
With rain falling into a cold dry wedge Friday, temperatures
will be quite chilly, ranging from the low 40s to low 50s. The
wedge is expected to break on Saturday, sending temperatures
back into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Above normal temperatures
likely through Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Gusty northwest winds will persist through the period.
2. Possible -SHSN at LWB/BLF through sunrise this morning.
Bands of snow showers are decreasing in frequency this morning
across the mountains, but may still result in a localized
reduction in visibility to 1SM per recent observations. Snow
showers will come to an end by dawn.
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period, though with
ceilings fluctuating between high MVFR and low VFR in stratocu
across southeast West Virginia and western Virginia through
sunrise. Lingering mountains clouds will diminish quickly from
sunrise through late morning.
The main concern through the TAF period remains the gusty west-
northwest winds that will range from 20kts to locally 35kts
across the mountains through Tuesday night. Winds will diminish
slightly by dawn, however deep mixing ensures winds will
increase again by 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday. Gusty
northwest winds continue through Wednesday evening, a little
lighter on Thursday. Speeds will be strongest in the mountains,
potentially reaching 40 kts or higher locally at times,
especially on Wednesday.
Chances for rain and MVFR conditions or lower ceilings increase
beginning Friday and continue through Saturday as low pressure
moves up the east coast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Gusty west winds and low relative humidity expected today and
again on Wednesday.
2. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for counties across
southeast West Virginia, southwest Virginia and Northwest North
Carolina from 11 am today through 8 pm this evening.
3. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Wednesday for
portions of Virginia located mainly along and west of the Blue
Ridge. This may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning later today.
Winds will shift increasingly west-southwesterly today,
allowing mountain clouds to gradually diminish through the
morning. The increased sunshine and westerly downslope flow will
allow for warmer afternoon temperatures and drier air compared
to Monday, with afternoon RH values approaching 20 percent for
most of the service area. Winds will remain gusty today, with
gusts ranging from 25 mph to locally 40 mph. These conditions
will allow fuels to dry further, making for an increased risk of
fires burning out of control. As such, a Fire Danger Statement
has been issued for the entire service area from 11 am though 8
pm this evening.
Temperatures will be warmer still on Wednesday, thereby further
increasing the fire danger. With low RH and gusty winds expected
to persist, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions
of Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Wind speeds will diminish for Thursday. The next chance for
widespread wetting rain is expected for Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for VAZ019-020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
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SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/NF
FIRE WEATHER...NF/SH