Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 252308 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 708 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 706 PM EDT SATURDAY... ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING MAINLY TO TWEAK FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY CLEAR IN PIEDMONT AND WINDS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO THAT NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED GUSTS ON RIDGES A LITTLE OVERNIGHT BASED ON FORECAST WINDS ALOFT...MAY NEED TO BUMP UP EVEN MORE. REALLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR ANY UPSLOPE PRECIP GIVEN HOW SHALLOW MOISTURE IS...AND ONLY NAM AND HIGH RES NMM MODEL SUGGESTING SOMETHING WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT. EVERY OTHER MODEL REMAINS DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AT BEST. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING AND WHILE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD...CHANGED FROM ISOLD SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY... A DRY CLIPPER FRONT ENTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE STRAY SHOWER...BUT AT MOST...LOOKING AT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO A RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS. CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH THIS FRONT. CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.
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