Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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912 FXUS61 KRNK 312253 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 653 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Our weather will remain unsettled through the end of the workweek as a weak cold front slowly moves in from the northwest and keeps showers and thunderstorms in our forecast into the weekend. The weekend also looks to be rather wet as more showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of another cold front that will move through the region Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 645 pm EDT Tuesday... Convection late this afternoon and early evening has been primarily confined to those parts of the region along and west of Interstate 77. A few isolated showers were also in parts of the Greenbrier Valley in West Virginia and also in the James River basin east of Lynchburg. As we head into the evening hours the loss of sunshine will take away the fuel that has been triggering the activity. Expect a general trend towards less coverage but within the same geographic region as the current coverage. The isolated showers in the James River basin should continue a southerly progression towards the VA/NC border. Have made minor tweaks to hourly temperatures and dew points to capture the latest observations and trends through the evening hours. The biggest adjustment will be in the southwest portion of the forecast where there is rain cooled air in some locations. As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... Diurnal convective activity will gradually wind down this evening with an isolated renegade shower possibly stewing around through the overnight hours. The humid conditions will once again favor fog/stratus development tonight through early Wednesday morning...being particularly thick in locations that experience rain this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will be mild with generally low/mid 60s east to upper 50s/around 60 west. The pattern will not change significantly through midweek. The remnant circulation of Bonnie will continue to swirl along the Carolina coast with high pressure in a wedge-like configuration east of the Blue Ridge. This will result in diurnally forced convection through the period with orographic affects and differential heating boundaries serving as initiation and keeping the bulk of convective activity from the Ridge westward on Wednesday...though model trends are also wanting to rotate some convection into the piedmont and eastern Southside VA later in the day as well. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal with elevated dew points making for sticky conditions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... Weak ridging aloft will transition into zonal flow with the main storm track well to our north. This will prevent any major systems from moving through the region...however a weak frontal boundary will sag through the region by the end of the week. This will enhance our chances for diurnal convection and also increase the coverage of showers/thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday. As the boundary gets hung up just to our south waves will ripple along the baroclinic zone and may well make for a wash out of at least the latter portion of Saturday. Tempertures look to remain at or above normal with a slight cooling trend especially west of the Blue Ridge associated with the transit of the frontal boundary. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... A vigorous upper trof will dig through the Great Lakes region this weekend culminating in a closed low spinning over New England through the first part of next week. This will drive a surface low from the upper plains into New England and push a cold front through the region on Sunday night. This will generate widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front on Sunday and make for a soggy close to the weekend. Cooler air will then move in behind the front for the first part of next week along with improving conditions save for locations west of the Blue Ridge where upslope conditions in NW flow will keep a chance of showers in the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday... With little change in the weather pattern expect persistence with light winds to be a good guide for TAF sites this package. Scattered diurnal convection has started to fire across the region and will cover this with a VCTS for western locations but based on latest radar/satellite and meso model trends will not mention at KLYH or KDAn for now. May have to amend if storms begin to encroach on these sites during the afternoon/evening. Expect another round of nocturnal fog/stratus overnight through early Wendesday morning with LIFR conditions at KLWB and KBCB expected. IFR mainly due to cigs should hold at KDAN and KLYH. Will not mention any IFR at KROA or KBLF but guidance is hinting at the possibility of some lower cigs so will have to keep an eye on this. Any diurnal convection on Wednesday is likely to hold off until after this TAF Penrod so will keep the back end dry. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Outside of early morning fog/low clouds and convection should be VFR through the end of the week. Finally an stronger upper trough will kick what is left of Bonnie out to sea Thursday-Friday. Expect more widespread showers Thursday afternoon into Friday ahead of a cold front, making for periods of sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Saturday may be VFR behind this front and before moisture and lowering conditions return by Saturday night. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...DS/MBS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...MBS/WP

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