Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221714 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 114 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control through much of this week with dry and generally seasonable weather. The next decent chance of precipitation, for at least areas west of the Blue Ridge, will be Friday when a cold front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1215 PM EDT Monday... High pressure continues to build east this afternoon covering most of the eastern CONUS and bringing much drier air to the entire region. Under mostly sunny skies should see highs today mid 70s west to mid 80s east. Overnight lows falling into the mid 50s west to near 60 east may feel almost cold after the relentless humidity and warm nights of the past month.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Surface high pressure will wedge down the Mid Atlantic Tuesday, then drifts off the New England coast on Wednesday. Winds will come around to the southeast on Wednesday, allowing moisture/humidity to increase. Even though the atmosphere will be capped, a few shallow showers may develop in the afternoon where the wedge erodes (Bluefield-Richlands area). Some upslope showers may also develop along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, particularly the North Carolina High Country. With dry air and abundant sunshine, afternoon temperatures will warm to seasonal levels, near 80F west and low to mid 80s east. Overnight lows will drop down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Expect a return to more typical and more familiar summerlike conditions through the period. Surface high pressure will continue to drift east allowing a steady stream of increasingly warm/moist Gulf air to advect northeast into the region. Although high pressure aloft with heights hovering near 594dm will be common through the period, a weak trough in the westerlies will skirt by to our north Thu-Fri. This will drag a weak front into the region late Thu which will enhance the chance for showers/thunderstorms. Expect the activity to be more concentrated across the mountains aided by differential heating, but some will drift into the Piedmont by Thursday evening. Instability looks more than sufficient for thunder, but dynamics are weak at best. Have capped pops at the 30- 40 percent level for now, but later forecasts may be able to refine areas that will see slightly higher pops, most likely Greenbrier down toward Tazewell/Bland. The remnants of the front will drift into North Carolina by Friday afternoon and wash out. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms still possible as a result, with the best emphasis across the northwest NC mountains at this point. With high pressure aloft through the period, not much temperature change expected. In fact, 850mb temps are progged by most long range models to return into the +20C range or better, especially across the lower elevation areas. Thus we will likely see a return of at least lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge by Friday and Saturday. Minimum temps will also be on the increase again and trend toward well above normal by the end of the week with dewpoints creeping well back into the 60s. The warm, above normal temperature trend also occurred about this time last year when many Piedmont sites saw several consecutive days in the lower to mid 90s. Looking into the future regarding the tropics, the long range models have multiple variable solutions regarding the tropics. At least through the end of August, it appears the RNK CWA will not be impacted by any tropical systems as high pressure aloft dominates the region over the next 7-10 days. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 113 PM EDT Monday... High pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will drift slowly eastward over the next several days with widespread VFR conditions prevailing. The only exception will be early morning fog mainly at western TAF sites, especially KLWB. Extended aviation discussion... Thursday a bit more moisture will work its way north into western parts of the area on the west side of a departing high pressure. Isolated showers will be possible across the mountains, but for the most part, VFR conditions will still prevail. On Friday, there is a greater chance of showers, and possibly some storms, with the approach of our next cold front. Pockets of MVFR conditions will again occur briefly under the stronger showers or storms.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PC NEAR TERM...PC/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...PC/WP

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