Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270823 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 423 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO MARYLAND THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ON FRIDAY A STRONGER LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 500 MB PATTERN WHICH KEEP THE REGION IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO MARYLAND. CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN MOST LIKELY LOCATION AND TIME FRAME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO FOCUS WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY. OVERALL TREND ON RADAR HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING. EVEN WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MAY NOT HAVE MUCH HEATING WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HAVE ALIGNED HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES FROM TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW NIGHTS...LOWS WILL BE MILD...10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSIENT. THE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THINGS IS FOR THE TROF/CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST TO EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY IN OUR DIRECTION WHICH ARE INTERSPERSED WITH PULSES FROM AN EASTERN RIDGE. BY THURSDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL GIVE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...THEN ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TO THE WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY... UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS FEATURES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARDS THE REGION. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE DAMPENED BY THE RIDGE...BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE BEEN DISPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW...AND BY MONDAY...LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND... WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THESE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED STORMS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF THE MONDAY ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN OUR CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM ILLINOIS TO DELEWARE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR IN -SHRA/-TSRA...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTION. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z/2PM...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/EXTENT/DURATION IS LOW. MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN. FOG FORMATION WILL ALSO DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. HAVE ADDED TO THE KLYH TAF FOR NOW. KBCB/KLWB MAY ALSO HAVE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN STALLED OR SLOWLY DRIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...DS/MBS AVIATION...AMS

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