Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 220108 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 908 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 840 PM EDT THURSDAY... DECENT COOL ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OUTER BANKS ATTM. HOWEVER LEFTOVER WEAKNESS INLAND...ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RIDGES...TENDING TO HOLD BACK THE NW TRAJECTORY AND DRYING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OBS/MSAS. THIS LIKELY TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TO PUSH EAST LATER AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH UNDER THE COOLING ALOFT TO GENERATE SMALL BANDS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM THE UPSLOPE AREAS OUT EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR KROA. THUS EDGED LOW POPS EAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THE STRONG UPPER VORT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH LATER ON WHICH SHOULD MARK THE ONSET OF BETTER DRYING. ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS OVER THE WEST WHERE MORE OF A LATE WINTER/FALL SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES UNDER A 30-35 KT 85H JET...AND COOL ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS GOING ESPCLY ALONG THE RIDGES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY WEST OVERNIGHT PER UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND SPILLOVER UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE...TO BECOMING PC/MOSTLY CLEAR EAST AS DOWNSLOPING FINALLY WINS OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WITH THE BREEZE TO REMAIN CHILLY FOR LATE MAY AS COOL ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH 85H TEMPS BELOW +5C WEST SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY IN THE COOL 40S TO AROUND 50 SE. BETTER SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHILL IN THE AIR AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOOKING AT A NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...STARTING THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL AND THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN A WARMING TREND...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND CONFIDENCE LOW TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WORDING INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 640 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER GUSTY NW FLOW KICKING IN BEHIND THE WAVE WILL KEEP UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS GOING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SOME REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW FAST EASTERN SECTIONS WILL CLEAR AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXING TO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY FOG TO FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AT KLYH/KDAN. OTRW AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE INTO THE EVENING UNDER THE PASSING COLD POOL ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. EXPECT IFR TO BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT AT KBLF/KLWB WITH MVFR AT KBCB...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR TO THE NW MAY SNEAK IN LATE ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BY DAWN FRIDAY. KROA SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS KLYH/KDAN AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING WITH A WET ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR STRATUS/FOG REDEVELOPMENT OUT EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME DENSE FOG DUE TO LOWERING STRATUS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF...AND PERHAPS AT KLWB ESPCLY IF SOME BREAKS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP MIXING WHICH ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND ESTABLISH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT NW FLOW TO BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY EARLY AT KROA...AND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...JH/MBS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...JH/MBS/PC

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