Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 181948 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure shifts from the Gulf Coast states this evening to the southeast coast by Saturday. This will linger over the southeast states into Monday before a cold front enters from the west Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 210 PM EDT Thursday... Winter weather advisory for refreeze of snowmelt in NC through Friday morning, per policy agreement with NC EM officials. Rest of CWA will likely be under a Special Weather Statement to cover refreeze. Otherwise, looking at high pressure building in with winds subsiding this evening but not quite going calm. Still a chilly night with lows in the teens, but at least wind chills will not be as low given less wind. One possible concern tonight besides the slick roads would be fog. With warm advection and somewhat lighter winds over snow, fog can sometimes form. However, given limited melting the low levels stay a little dry and winds may stay up enough overall to restrict fog formation, but still possible, especially in the piedmont. We continue to stay in a split flow pattern into Friday with heights rising and 8h temps rising per warm advection. Under sunny skies, temperatures should reach into the 40s. We should start to see better snowmelt Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 115 PM EST Thursday... This period of the forecast will be highlighted by a warming trend across the area. An upper level ridge will build across the southeast U.S., all while the synoptic flow across our region turns zonal. By the end of this time period, low level trajectories that clip far western parts of the area will have their origin from across the western Gulf of Mexico. The result will be moderating temperatures with eventually increasing clouds by the end of the weekend, especially across the west, with also the potential for some isolated showers across the far west by Sunday. By Sunday, high temperatures will range from the low to mid 50s across the mountains, and mid 50s to around 60 across the Piedmont.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EST Thursday... The mild weather will continue Sunday night into Monday in advance of an approaching cold front. Also, isolated to scattered showers will start to increase across the area during the day in advance of this same front. Look for showers to become more numerous Monday night into early Tuesday morning as the front passes through the region. While temperatures will decrease behind the front, readings will still remain above normal for this time of year heading through the middle part of the week. After Monday night, our next chance for precipitation will be a small one Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak disturbance passes through FL/GA/SC. Otherwise, dry weather is expected as another area of high pressure builds into the region.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Thursday... Do not see any clouds on the horizon for aviation and visibilities should be VFR. Question tonight will be if we get fog formation over the snowpack with weak warm advection occuring above it. For now winds should stay up slightly to prevent this but something to be alert for. West-northwest winds will be in the 10-15kt range in the mountains this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 kts, with lighter winds in the east. Winds will subside more after dusk, but some stronger winds above the developing surface inversion will result in low level wind shear along the LWB-ROA/BCB corridor for a few hours this evening. Extended Discussion... High pressure will cover the region Friday through Sunday. VFR conditions are expected as well as warming temperatures. Moisture will return to west Sunday night into Monday with sub- VFR conditions possible ahead of another cold front. VFR conditions should return late Tuesday. && .EQUIPMENT...
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As of 245 PM EST Thursday... NOAA Weather Radio, WXL60 (Roanoke Transmitter) which broadcasts at 162.475 MHz remains off the air. The phone company continues to investigate and no estimated time has been given for restoring this. We apologize for the outage.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP EQUIPMENT...WP

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