Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 211932 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 332 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1 HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY... LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL. WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST. TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS. WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY... A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...CF AVIATION...AMS/KK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.