Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 281144 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 744 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY...RETURNING TO NORMAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO IL TO DALLAS TX. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BALMY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S. ASIDE FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUD...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS BECAUSE THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST OF THE WARM AIR FOR OCTOBER...TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT MAY BE TESTED OR BROKEN TODAY. SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NO THREAT OF PRECIP ANYWHERE WITHIN OUR CWA UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL. INCREASING CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FRONT. ONSET LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...SPREADING EAST TO NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY... COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TRENDING UP INTO THE LOWER OR MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS...WANING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...AND ANY APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND LOW THREAT FOR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...UPSLOPING CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP A BIT SUCH THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 40S PIEDMONT. REST OF SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS POST FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO AND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM MAINLY 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 60S PIEDMONT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY... FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN US AND WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON. -6C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE WV AND SW VA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND QUICK HITTING SO SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS LATER TODAY...WITH OCNL SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD END 1 OR 2 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO THE WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY... DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY PER INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WARM AIR FLOWING NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HUMIDITY MINIMUMS TESTING 30 PERCENT. AFTER TODAY...WETTING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EAST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/28... ROANOKE.....86 (1919) LYNCHBURG...88 (1919) DANVILLE....85 (1984) BLUEFIELD...77 (1984) LEWISBURG...76 (1984) BLACKSBURG..80 (1984) && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY... RADAR HAS BEEN PLACED INTO STANBY UNTIL EL TECHS CAN ASSESS A PROBLEM THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE AIR CONDITIONER THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM COOL. THE TEMPERATURE IN THE BUILDING ROSE TO AROUND 50 DEG C LATE LAST NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM HAD TO BE PLACED INTO STANDBY TO AVOID POTENTIAL FAILURE AND DAMAGE TO THE EQUIPMENT. HINTON WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM IN THE TRANSMISSION LINE BETWEEN OUR FACILITY AND THE RADIO TRANSMITTER. TELCO HAS BEEN NOTIFIED TO FIX THE PROBLEM. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...WERT LONG TERM...CF AVIATION...PM FIRE WEATHER...PM CLIMATE...JH EQUIPMENT...PM

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