Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290156 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 956 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure is centered near the coast of South Carolina. This system is forecast to move very slowly northward along the coast the next several days causing unsettled weather across the mid atlantic region through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 950 PM EDT Saturday... Forecast models are in general agreement, tropical low pressure near the south carolina coast resulting in increasing cloudiness across the carolinas overnight and a northwest drift of showers from the coast...reaching the VA/NC border by daybreak Sunday. Have slowed down the arrival time of the precipitation in the southern county warning area until between 06Z/2AM and 09Z/5AM based on several of the latest short range models. Differences in the models arise Sunday and Sunday night as to how far west there will be precip and how fast the precip exits, or not exits the area Sunday night. This will also have ramifications to the QPF. Attm will heavily weight forecast to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) guidance in lieu of consistency and need to see if/when tropical system gets its act together with respect to strengthening or not strengthening with time and eventual track. That said, forecast is for showers moving into the southern CWA vicinity of the VA/NC border by daybreak Sunday, then spreading NNW into VA during the morning. Not confident of much precip making it into WVA or far western Va so will maintain a tight gradient of POPs west of the Blue Ridge...with chance in the western CWA and near categorical east. The airmass is of tropical origin, so dewpoints will remain high thus supporting mild temperatures. In spite of cloud cover, highs will still be in the 70s and lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Saturday... Tropical low lingering near the mid-Atlantic coast will be the focus through mid week. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. Even if the deeper moisture hugs the coast, any increase in sunshine across our area will result in increasing instability with diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures should be warmer with 80s for highs. Lows generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... The air mass will remain warm and humid, with a continuation of diurnally driven deep convection. A cold front is forecast to approach the forecast area from the west Friday. If by chance the tropical low is still around, this front should give it a boot out to sea. If there is a threat for stronger sort of storms for this upcoming week, it would come with Friday`s frontal passage. Temperatures, especially the overnight lows, will favor above normal readings through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Saturday... High clouds will continue to spread north across the region tonight. Ceilings will lower gradually late tonight and Sunday morning. The mid/high clouds should prevent fog development at KBCB and KLWB Sunday morning. High confidence that ceilings will remain VFR through at least 15Z/11AM. Have slowed down arrival of rain that is associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie. Medium to high confidence on this timing with KDAN into the rain around 12Z and KLWB not getting the rain until after 21Z. Soundings still have a deep layer of dry air but guidance has been consistent bringing up high precipitable water values and shifting the area of subsidence north and west of the forecast area. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Low confidence on flight category for Monday-Thursday. Models indicate low pressure will stall over the eastern mid-atlantic and linger through mid week. Our forecast area will be on the western periphery of this feature which suggests best flight conditions will be over and west of the Blue Ridge. MVFR or lower ceilings are possible at KLYH and KDAN Sunday night and Monday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/PM

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