Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 060750 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 350 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY... FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINTAINED TIL 6AM OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO GREENBRIER...THOUGH WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES TO OCCUR. REST OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED DUE TO LIMITED RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF LYNCHBURG. OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY... EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS. WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT 500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA. FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY... TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY... RADAR MAINTAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG A ROA-LWB LINE TIL 09Z...THEN SHIFTING IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. NOT THINKING THUNDER AS STABILITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH ROA/LWB TO ACCOUNT FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CASE WILL BE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALLOW CIGS TO INCREASE. OVERALL THOUGH...THINK THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ARE GOOD...THANKS TO HIGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS AND WINDS STAYING LIGHT. LOW CIGS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN FOG WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. UPPER LOW SHIFTS FROM WV TO PA TODAY AND WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM LWB-ROA-DAN NORTHEAST. ATTM WILL LEAVE VCSH IN...AND THINK AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG...VFR CIGS TO TAKE US FROM MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY FORM AGAIN MONDAY EVENING FROM LWB TO LYH. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ019- 020. NC...NONE. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507- 508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP

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