Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250550 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 150 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast. A dry cold front will move through the Appalachians and mid Atlantic region on Thursday, with much cooler weather for the end of the workweek into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 840 PM EDT Sunday... Evening soundings show lingering very dry air aloft beneath a swath of high level moisture associated with cirrus fanning out to the northwest of Maria. This trend looks to continue overnight with periodic thicker canopy making for intervals of partly cloudy skies espcly south. Otherwise should be mainly clear through high clouds, while fog coverage likely inhibited via drying from earlier and lingering rather low dewpoints this evening. Still appears that could see some fog/stratus western river valleys so leaving in a mention given cooling under light winds. Since not quite as dry or clear as last night, expect lows to stay a bit milder with only the valleys dropping well into the 50s, while overall expecting upper 50s/lower 60s. Previous discussion as of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Fair weather pattern continues with high pressure surface and aloft yielding warm and dry conditions across the region. Expect cirrus from Maria off the coast to veil the sky over most locations through tomorrow, but this should not hinder radiational cooling too much overnight and expect late night valley fog to develop west of the Blue Ridge. Fair and warm conditions continue for Monday, but a northeasterly breeze will become established as we start to feel the influence of Maria moving northward off the coast. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 60s east of the Ridge with middle 50s to the west along with some cooler readings in the valleys. Highs Monday will be in the mid/upper 80s east, low/mid 80s west. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Sunday... Amplified pattern remains in place with 5h ridge centered from New England to the Gulf Coast States, while Hurricane Maria shifts north off the southeast coast, and a trough shifts into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Overall model still keep Maria off the coast with limited impacts over our area. Still mainly dry but could see a few isolated showers Tue-Wed in the afternoon. Noticable increase in winds in the east with 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph possible by Wednesday. Temperatures to stay above normal until after Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 133 PM EDT Sunday... Computer models and NHC take Maria east of NC/VA coastline Thursday as front moves across. Should be fairly dry with trend toward cooler temperatures this period as 5h trough digs across the area. Stronger shortwave with another front could trigger a few showers Saturday, but overall very low chance. After one more warm day Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s west, to mid 80s east, highs should return to normal Friday-Sunday with mid 60s to lower 70s west, mainly 70s east. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Monday... With the exception of late night/early morning, which is somewhat more questionable than usual, looking for VFR conditions through the TAF valid period at all sites. The cirrus shield from Hurricane Maria, well off the Atlantic seaboard, will thicken with time over the forecast area as the hurricane moves north well off the coast. Soundings and time-height cross sections of RH suggest limited CU development during the day, but enough moisture in the 045-060 layer to consider FEW-SCT. This may be more prevalent in the areas further west with less cirrus. The cirrus shield, dry air mass, and light northeast wind flow around the extreme outer periphery of the hurricane may inhibit much fog development tonight, but have followed the lead of the previous forecast to include a brief period of IFR fog at LWB and MVFR fog at BCB. Have not included elsewhere at this time. The large circulation around Hurricane Maria will keep a northeast flow over the area through the period, mainly in the 040-080 range, except at BLF where it will be more in the 090-120 direction. Speeds will be 4-6kts overnight, increasing to 8-10kts after 14Z, with some low end gusts possible mainly across the Piedmont. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast early this week as strong high pressure aloft slowly drifts across areas just to our north. The upper high will gradually weaken and allow a mainly dry cold front to move through the region late in the week. Late night/early morning fog can be expected through the week as low-level moisture slowly increases in advance of the front. For the most part, VFR conditions are expected to continue this week.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...JH/MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...MBS/RAB

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