Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 170542 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 142 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1036 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... 1036MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE FREEZE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE EAST WHERE FROST- FREEZE PROGRAM ON GOING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THURSDAY. A EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FREEZE. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT. AS OF 726 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER IN NEW YORK. APPEARS A FREEZE ALREADY HEADLINED IN THE EAST WILL BE CERTAIN. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW WORKING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOWING SOME SMALL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LATE BUT OVERALL A DRY DAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE ANY THIN CIRRUS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE NEAR 20 IN THE VALLEYS THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...AND MAYBE AROUND 30 IN BLF/RICHLANDS PER SE FLOW LATE. DRY WEDGE THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL BUT NOT COLD...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF BLF/MKJ. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT TOMORROW NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPS IS NOT EXPECTED BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WED AND THURSDAY MORNING. UNEVENTFUL PERIOD...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEPARTING...AND WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH PASSING BY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...MIN TEMPS MAY DIP AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TO START SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY... VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SE GA/SC/NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE E-NE SFC FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE-SE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND INCREASED MARITIME FLOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS IS WELL BEYOND THIS VALID TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. JUST BEYOND 00Z FRI...EXPECT BKN-OVC 250 TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT UNTIL THEN. WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 6-9KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE LYH/ROA DURING THE DAYTIME AND ALL HOURS AT BLF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY MVFR EARLY FRI ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .CLIMATE... AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23. APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F. LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F. DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F. BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F. BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F. LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024- 032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019- 020. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NF/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...KM AVIATION...KK/RAB CLIMATE...JC/KM

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