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000
FXUS61 KRNK 151740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER...STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SATURDAY...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU FIELD AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE REGION. RAISED TEMPERATURES AND
MAX TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
WIND SPEED ALONG THE RIDGES.


AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO TONIGHT. THIS MORNING RNK 8AM/12Z SOUNDING
SHOWED DRY AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND 0.6 INCHES AND NORTHWEST FLOW.
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL CUT BACK ON LOW/MID CLOUDS
COMPARIED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS
IN THE WEST. A PLEASANT SATURDAY ON TAP WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ISC GRIDS.

AS OF 520 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSEASONABLY COLD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. SFC AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY AND
WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TODAY AS COMPARED TO
NORTHERLY SATURDAY...EXPECT LESS LOW/MID CLOUD SC DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AS COMPARED TO FRI...WITH SE WV HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY
ON TAP FOR THE CWA WITH SEASONABLE TO BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY FROM +12C TO +14C NEXT 24
HOURS...SO WITH THAT COMBINED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS BEING A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE PIEDMONT. STILL...THIS WILL LEAVE READINGS
BELOW THE NORMAL HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 WEST TO NEAR 90 SE PIEDMONT.
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE HEELS OF SW TO W FLOW
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ARRIVE MAINLY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF SUNDAY. THE NEW ECMWF ALONG WITH THE SREF ARE MUCH SLOWER
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST THAN THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC GFS. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES MAY BE LIMITED BY
MEAGER CAPE/LAPSE RATES...SUCH THAT ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TN RIVER VALLEY...AIDING DEVELOPMENT. THE OP GFS IS AWFUL WITH A
SURFACE LOW MUCH TOO STRONG BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE OP GFS WAS THROWN OUT AND FOLLOWED THE 0Z ECMWF MORE
CLOSELY...WHICH DEPICTS THE FRONT CLEARING OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PARKING ITSELF IN THE MID ATLANTIC. SFC WINDS TURN FROM
NORTH TO EAST/SOUTHEAST THU-FRI NEXT WEEK SO THAT IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NEARBY TO THE SOUTH
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SRN TIER OF
COUNTIES. KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW GIVEN SFC PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONAL BEHIND THE TUESDAY FRONT...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING SEASONAL INTO FRIDAY GIVEN THE FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO
CLIMB SOME AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. SCT-BKN
CU WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALSO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
LESS FOG COVERAGE POTENTIAL OVERALL. MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR LWB
AND BCB TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINSH THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING NEAR/OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BLF.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING ISOLATED MVFR STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNS BEHIND
THE FRONT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ASOS OBSERVATION FROM BLUEFIELD (BLF) REMAINS UNAVAILABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE BECAUSE OF A POWER OUTAGE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB