National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 181054
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
654 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry day is expected today with northwesterly winds. A much
stronger front will cross our area Friday bringing some showers
and storms, then cooler weather arrives for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Dry, warm, and breezy.

A few showers still remain across the West Virginia mountains,
but these will continue to decrease over the next few hours.

Winds will gust up to 25 mph along the higher elevations today.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal with lows
ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s, but highs should
climb into the mid/upper 70s for the mountains and low/mid 80s
for the Piedmont. Dewpoints will also fall into the upper 30s
to the mid 40s by this afternoon, which will push relative
humidities below 30 percent at most locations.

Winds quickly diminish around sunset and winds overnight should
be nearly calm. Could potentially have some spots into the 40s
tonight if skies can remain clear to allow for radiational
cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...


Key Messages:

1: Showers and storms Friday

2: A few showers possible in northern NC Saturday

Low pressure and a cold front will transit the OH Valley and then
stall near the Carolinas on Friday. On Friday this will result in
showers beginning in the late morning, with some thunderstorms
possible through the late afternoon. This front will settle just
south of our area in the Carolinas, and a slowly approaching
gradient of higher pressure will dry out any precip by Friday night.
On Saturday, most of the area will be free of rain with the
exception of isolated showers in northern NC Saturday afternoon. The
continued increase in surface pressure from the west will suppress
rain potential further north of the front in VA and WV.

Temperatures will cool a bit with the front and more showers. Expect
temps in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Rain chances Sunday and Wednesday

2: Cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday, rebounding
on Tuesday

Behind a cold front that moves offshore Saturday night, cooler
than normal temperatures can be expected Sunday and Monday.

A disturbance in eastern Texas will track across the Deep South
Saturday, then move off the Carolina Coast Sunday night. The
northern edge of the rain shield is expected to reach the
Highway 460 corridor Sunday afternoon, then exit the Piedmont
around midnight, ushered out quickly by a fast moving area of
weak high pressure. Surface high pressure over the region
Monday and Tuesday will allow temperatures to return to near
normal levels and provide for calm weather. Showers reenter the
area Wednesday as another cold front tracks over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Some MVFR cloudiness this morning across the mountains as a
passage of a decaying front moves through. MVFR will linger
for perhaps an hour or two, but then should see widespread VFR
for the remainder of the TAF period as skies become clear.

Winds will be on the increase today, gusty from the northwest.
Could see some gusts to 20kt to perhaps 25kts in the mountains.
Winds quickly diminish by sunset and will be light/calm
tonight.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected into early Friday. However, a cold
front will cross the area by late Friday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible. The cold front will exit eastward by
Saturday, but some MVFR ceilings may linger in the mountains
through the morning. North winds will provide some clearing for
late Saturday, but more moisture may surge northeastward during
Sunday and Monday to bring another chance of rain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...RCS/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG