Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 240802 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 402 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN SETS UP FOR POTENTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY... A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST IS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MAIN BATCH OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. DESPITE INCREASING CIN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND UPPER SUPPORT KEEPING SOME STORMS ACROSS NW NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. 4Z HRRR HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL...AND FOLLOWED SOME OF THIS INTO THE MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM NORTH OF CRW WEST TO SOUTH OF CVG AND SOUTH TOWARD BNA THIS MORNING. SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TN VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA BY MID AFTERNOON AND SENDING THE FRONT WELL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THEN. STILL UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS ACROSS IL THIS MORNING IS GOING TO MOVE INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY THOUGH LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS 5 PERCENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SOLAR INSOLATION MAY BE LIMITED AS CLOUD COVER PER SAT TRENDS AND MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST BKN- OVC. THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH CLOUDS/CONVECTION BUT STILL WARM WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST. TONIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE WEST. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE EARLY IN THE EAST THEN DRY IT OUT BY MIDNIGHT/EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHEN MAIN TROUGH AXIS AT 5H SHIFTS ACROSS. LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THOUGH PROXIMITY OF FRONT THAT STALLS OVER ERN NC/SC MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE SE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY. LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TURNING WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NE-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S ROANOKE TO MID 80S EAST CAN BE EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY... FOR SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS UPSTREAM FRONT CLOSELY AS IT MAY CAST SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OUR WAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PARTICULARLY STRONG DISTURBANCE...NOTED BY ALL THE MODELS...PROMISES TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH...A PATTERN THAT WILL NET COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. DURING THE TRANSITION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ATTM WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD AFTER THE EARLY WEEK FROPA. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY... AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST NORTH OF ROA AND NW OF LYH...WITH MAINLY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST. WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THEN SHOULD BE A BREAK AROUND DAWN-14Z. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SHOWERS BY 09Z ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND PUSHING IT TO DAN. NOT SEEING THIS YET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING PER DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY WILL OCCUR IF STORMS LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION WILL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOG DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE. CLOUDINESS THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT THE LOWER VSBYS. STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES...BUT DID ADD A VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z THUR AND 00Z FRI...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY- SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUB VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MAYBE SOME FOG THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VFR FRI- SAT OUTSIDE OF ANY VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...PM/WP LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...WP

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