Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 301445 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY... FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND SHOULD MIX BY NOON. LAYER OF STRATUS OVER THE PIEDMONT IS A BIT MORE STUBBORN AND MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETE CLEARING TAKES PLACE. LYNCHBURG AND MARTINSVILLE SHOULD CLEAR BY NOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 2PM BEFORE COMPLETE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN BUCKINGHAM...CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...SOUTHBOSTON...AND YANCEYVILLE. WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER EAST OF HIGHWAY 29. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH NEAR FULL SUN WITH ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A RUN FOR 80 DEGREES FROM ROANOKE...BEDFORD... AND ROCKY MOUNT VA...DOWN INTO THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC FROM MOUNT AIRY TO STATESVILLE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO PARTAKE IN A VERY WARM AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. ASIDE FROM THE MORNING FOG/CLOUDS...CURRENTLY WATCHING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AT 14 UTC/10 AM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE...SOUTHWEST ACROSS OHIO AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. PRETTY EASY TO SEE THIS ONE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...THE STRATO CU OVERSPREADING AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS FOUND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT FROM ERIE PA TO COLUMBUS OH. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WV THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING AND NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 MAY EXPERIENCE A SHOWER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARD THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS MUSTER ABOUT 500 J/KG CAPE IN THE VA HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PERMIT FORMATION OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF BUENA VISTA VA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO SUPPORTING THE LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHEN IT PASSES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...PENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGHLANDS AND VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...MAY INTRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. IT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A 10-20 PERCENT SORT OF THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT WE MAY NUDGE THIS NUMBER UP A BIT PENDING RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY... UPPER LOW PASSES WELL TO THE NE EARLY WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT/VORT TAIL TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTREME NE SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTRW PARTLY SUNNY AND QUITE MILD WEDNESDAY GIVEN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NOSE OF 85H WARMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. NEXT WEDGE SET UP STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND NOSES SOUTH ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER HOW FAST THIS UNFOLDS STILL IFFY GIVEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING INCREASING WHILE THE MAIN AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FARTHER EAST. SINCE THE TREND LOOKS SLOWER TO SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...DELAYED THE ONSET OF DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE...AND TRIMMED COVERAGE TO MOSTLY THE NE AND BLUE RIDGE SECTIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEDGE WILL START TO FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. HOWEVER FLOW LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO CAUSE DRIZZLE/FOG TO POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE COOL POOL. ELSW EXPECTING INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS BUMPING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND CLOSE TO 80 SE...WHILE THEN NORTH/NE SECTIONS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S PENDING TIMING OF CLOUD EXODUS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SW WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE MAY FLOP BACK IN AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION GOES UP THE WESTERN SLOPES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WONT INCLUDE ANY ADDED DRIZZLE/FOG THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ADD IN SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS SW GIVEN THE TYPICAL RETURN FLOW CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF A WEDGE IN THIS TYPE SCENARIO. OTRW LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH READINGS PERHAPS RISING LATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE EVEN FASTER TODAY WITH THE FRONT WITH RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...DRYING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY 08P/00Z. SINCE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO RUN FRONTS FAST IN THE FALL...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST TIMING OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND A PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE AXIS SATURDAY MORNING...A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND LESS BREEZY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF SHOWERS ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA. IF SHOWERS CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHSIDE COULD SEE 80F BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. SINCE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO 70F. FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 725 AM EDT TUESDAY... VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOST SITES ARE SUB VFR...WITH THE VLIFR AT BCB/LWB. STILL EXPECTING THE FOG TO LIFT/BURN OFF BY 15Z. COULD BE A PERIOD OF FOG AT BLF AS THE MOISTURE LIFTS FROM THE VALLEYS THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z WED MAY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATO-AC TO LYH WITH ANY SHOWERS STAYING NORTH. WITH NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TYPICAL AREAS LIKE LWB/BCB/LYH/DAN WILL HAVE MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG...MORE DENSE IN THE LWB AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH PERIOD OF SUB VFR LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEY AIRPORTS...KBCB...KLWB AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT THREAT FOR SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE VFR ALTHOUGH SOME UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT LWB/BLF. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...MBS/PM/WP

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