Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250755 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 355 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY... CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS. SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY... WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS... MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE... ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF. THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY... ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ011>017. NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ044-507. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF/PW AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP FIRE WEATHER...NF

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