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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 182234
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 630 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MSAS ANALYSIS AT 22Z/6PM SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM FARMVILLE
TO YADKINVILLE. EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8PM. HAVE UPDATED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATIONFOR THE REST OF THE EVENING TO REFLECT THESE RADAR
TRENDS.

THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT THE LIGHT POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. PLAYED HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO COOLER MOS VALUES FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT INCREASES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A BROAD EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...AND A DRY MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND...LOOKING AT MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...NOT TOO HOT...NOT TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...850 TEMPS
CREEPING TOWARD +2OC FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 80SF...TESTING 90F DEGREES FOR
THE URBAN AREAS. NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS...SO KEPT ANY PRECIP
THREAT MAINLY DIURNAL AND PRIMARILY TARGETED TO THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBYS...LOCALLY IFR...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH UL SHORTWAVE.
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFT 00Z...BUT
EXPECT LOW- LEVEL AIR MASS TO REMAIN VERY MOIST AND AREAS OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -DZ/BR LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LWB AND DAN. ISOLD TSRA CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED...BUT INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
TSRA...BEST CHANCE LYH/DAN. LIGHT WINDS BECOME W-NW BEHIND UPPER
SHORT WAVE/ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM W-E.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION CONDITIONS...FOR WEDNESDAY...LOW IFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT EXPECT IMPROVED CONDITIONS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH LITTLE TO NO SHRA ACTIVITY. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...INCREASED DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH LOCALLY BRIEF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS BR...LOCALLY IFR FG...ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB