Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 282351 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 751 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will begin to approach from the north Monday, then stall and linger in our vicinity through the middle of the week. This will keep just a chance of an afternoon shower or storm in the forecast, mainly west of the Blue Ridge, with warm late summer temperatures near normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Any lingering isolated showers will dissipate this evening and allow the wedge of high pressure over the region to bring quiet weather for the overnight period with conditions a bit more favorable for valley fog development late. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid/upper 60s east of the Ridge with low/mid 60s west. For Monday, as the upper ridge flattens and gets squeezed a bit to the west as a vigorous short wave moves through New England. This will allow a weak boundary to sink into the area from the northwest and bring a good chance for more showers/storms to southeast WV and the Alleghany Highlands of VA, with an isolated shower/storm possible extending back west of the Blue Ridge to the Mountain Empire of VA. Aside from this, the bulk of the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region will see a quiet and warm late August day to start the week. Highs tomorrow will be near 90 degrees east to mid/upper 80s west. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday... Upper ridge of high pressure is forecast to weaken as series of short wave troughs skirt the US/Canadian border carving out a broad trough from the Great Lakes into New England by Wednesday. First of two surface fronts will enter the CWA Monday night. This front is expected to stall over the forecast area becoming the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday. A second front will approach the forecast area from the north Wednesday night, as a much stronger short wave rounds the base of the upper level trough. As the upper level ridge breaks down, temperatures will also trend down, although still averaging above normal through at least Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday... Models continue to advertise a much sharper upper level long wave trough developing from Ontario Canada to the Mid Atlantic by the end of the week. Associated surface front is forecast to come through our forecast area Thursday, a transition to a cooler drier airmass by Friday. In spite of the cooling and drying progged for our CWA, the tropics are forecast to be busy, with potential impacts to Florida and nearby states. The upper trough which sets up over the eastern US will likely play a large role in steering the near CONUS tropical systems during this period. Please refer to The National Hurricane Center for the latest information (WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV). && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 745 PM EDT Sunday... Radar trends at 23Z/7PM showed thunderstorms in southeast West Virginia weakening and dissipating. No chance of precipitation has been included in the local TAFs. Conditions overnight appear favorable for radiational cooling and moisture profiles indicated by model soundings favor some fog development late especially for KBCB and KLWB. There is also a strong signal from the NAM soundings for a layer of strato cu developing in a similar manner to Saturday night. Will include a mention of these clouds but will leave them as scattered and not create a cig The more clouds that form, the less likely there will be MVFR or lower fog. Any fog/stratus will burn off early Monday morning with VFR conditions expected through the end of this valid period. Winds will be light. High confidence that a majority of the thunderstorms on Monday afternoon will remain just northwest of KLWB. This will be just ahead of a weak front the will approach the region Monday afternoon then dissipate by Monday night. Extended aviation discussion... Isolated diurnally driven convection will be possible Tue. Coverage will be limited in duration and area on all days and have minimal impact on the TAF sites. Another front will move into the region Wed into Thu with a better chance for showers/thunderstorms, followed by cooler and drier air for Friday. Most of the period looks VFR at this point, outside of the usual late night/early morning fog/low clouds. At this time, it does not appear that any tropical systems will impact the county warning area.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/MBS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.