Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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817 FXUS61 KRNK 200550 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak shortwave will move east across our region tonight into Wednesday. Jose will track north, off the east coast tonight, before sliding just east of New England today.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 700 PM Tuesday... Afternoon and evening shower coverage remained extremely isolated to the higher elevations Tuesday, with a weakening trend expected to continue after sunset. Upstream shower activity continues to stay well west of the forecast area thanks to a stubborn layer of dry air in the mid levels, with only decaying cloud debris noted spreading east into the Appalachians by nightfall. Previously Valid Discussion... High pressure will remain across our area this afternoon into tonight. Our forecast area will remain under dry air aloft between Hurricane Jose passing well offshore and the next upstream axis of deeper moisture associated with a cluster of mid level shortwave energy in the Midwest. A weak surface cold front to the northwest slowly edging east towards the mountains late tonight. Low level moisture and light winds will result in patches of fog especially in the valleys. Low temperatures tonight will range from the the mid 50s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Wednesday will feature another warm afternoon with high temperatures from around 70 degrees in the northwest mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. Shortwave will slide east across the area and be enhanced by diurnal heating. The cap will weaken enough to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 248 PM EDT Tuesday... A rather quiet weather pattern with little change in the low level/upper level features. Will be relying on daytime heating and weak upper impulses, along with some weak low level convergence for isolated to scattered showers/storms Thursday-Friday afternoons. Will seem more like summer like pattern though not as hot, but temps will still run 3 to 10 degrees above normal. Lows will run from the mid to upper 50s mountains, to lower to mid 60s foothills/piedmont and Roanoke. Highs mainly upper 70s/around 80 west, with mid 80s east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday... Surface and upper ridge will be sandwiched between tropical systems off the east coast and strong upper trough over the central/western U.S. this period. Will see how Hurricane Maria evolves and tracks northward off the east coast next week, depending on how Jose moves/weakens and if the upper ridge pushes further off the mid- Atlantic coast. At present, models in decent agreement keeping us on the warm and dry side. Highs and lows will continue to range about 3 to 8 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday... Mainly VFR East of the Blue Ridge tonight, with IFR VSBYs possible at LWB/BCB just before sunrise. MVFR to brief IFR fog possible at BLF. Mid level clouds over the mountains may delay or inhibit fog formation. High confidence of MVFR fog in the favored valleys by 10Z/6AM. A weak short wave will be reaching the central Appalachians in the morning which would result in more cloud cover and scattered showers over the mountains. Low confidence on the probability of any thunderstorms. Any chance would be after 16Z/noon with KBLF the most likely airport to be impacted. Brief dips to MVFR ceilings in the localized downpours will not be out of the question with the showers. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast to prevail for the rest of the upcoming week into the weekend with strengthening high pressure remaining in place between exiting Jose offshore and a weak cold front approaching from the west. This should maintain good flying weather outside of early morning fog/stratus through late next week, with only isolated to scattered diurnal showers possible Thursday afternoon as upper level energy slides across. Dry weather is expected Friday through Sunday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/KK NEAR TERM...JM/KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/JM

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