-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
336
FXUS61 KRNK 101840
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
240 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Low pressure over the Mid Atlantic will move offshore tonight,
then another low tracking through the Great Lakes will push a
cold front through the region Saturday and Saturday night. These
systems will trigger scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this evening, and again Saturday afternoon and
evening. High pressure will bring dry weather for Sunday and
Monday, then widespread precipitation is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms this evening

 - Chance of showers and thunderstorms again Saturday

Surface low pressure was over eastern Virginia this afternoon.
Enough instability from the piedmont into the Tennessee Valley
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Hi-Res models
as well as 3km NAM and GFS were in good agreement with synoptic
scale features tonight and Saturday. The guidance rapidly
diminishes the coverage of precipitation after 00Z/8PM and a
majority of the cloud cover by midnight. The exception will be
on the far western slopes of the central Appalachians. Low
clouds will remain until the upslope winds die off late tonight.

Water vapor images showed a well-defined short wave in northern
Minnesota. This feature moves across the northeast United States
tonight and Saturday, pushing a cold front through the Mid
Atlantic region Saturday afternoon and evening. The cold air
aloft with this short wave is forecast to cross central and
northern Virginia, but cannot rule out a few reports of graupel
Saturday, especially north of I-64 west of the Lexington.

The wind turns to the north tonight, then backs to the west-
southwest Saturday morning in response to the approaching upper
wave. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s, but the Mt.
Rogers, the highest elevations of Watauga County and the typical
favored locations like Burkes Garden and Mountain lake will dip
into the upper 30s. Will use NBM guidance as a starting point
for highs on Saturday but will trend warmer since maximum
temperatures similar to Friday are expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for drier weather on Sunday.

2) Warmer air should return by Monday with increasing chances of
rain towards Monday night.

Weak high pressure will approach the Mid Atlantic to halt the
upslope mountain rain showers during Saturday night. The wind may
still become breezy on Sunday as an upper level trough heads
offshore. With high pressure passing across the Appalachian
Mountains on Sunday night, low temperatures by Monday morning should
fall into the upper 30s to the upper 40s. The upper level pattern
will flatten and become zonal on Monday to end the somewhat cooler
stretch of weather. A southwest flow at the surface should provide
warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico for Monday afternoon.
However, a low pressure system will enter Kentucky and Tennessee by
Monday night, which should yield increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest Virginia.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for unsettled weather during Tuesday and
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

2) Drier air may briefly return by early Thursday, but more showers
and thunderstorms are possible to end the work week.

Unsettled weather will return for Tuesday and Wednesday as a low
pressure system crosses the Appalachian Mountains. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Tuesday and will
likely carry over through Wednesday. The low pressure system will
exit the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday night, while weak high pressure
could briefly provide drier conditions for Thursday morning. Another
low pressure system should move eastward from the central Plains by
Thursday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances may resume
towards Thursday evening and become more widespread again by Friday
as this low pressure system reaches the Ohio River Valley.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Surface low pressure was over eastern Virginia this afternoon.
Enough instability from the piedmont into the Tennessee Valley
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
thunderstorms and more intense showers may have MVFR ceilings
and visibilities.

Hi-Res models as well as 3km NAM and GFS were in good agreement
with synoptic scale features tonight and Saturday. The guidance
rapidly diminishes the coverage of precipitation after 00Z/8PM
and a majority of the cloud cover by midnight. The exception
will be on the far western slopes of the central Appalachians.
Low clouds will remain until the upslope winds die off late
tonight. Wind gusts will be 15 to 30 knots through 00Z/8PM.

Water vapor images showed a well-defined short wave in northern
Minnesota. This feature moves across the northeast United States
tonight and Saturday, pushing a cold front through the Mid
Atlantic region Saturday afternoon and evening. The cold air
aloft with this short wave is forecast to cross central and
northern Virginia, but cannot rule out a few reports of graupel
Saturday, especially north of I-64 west of the Lexington.

The wind turns to the north tonight, then backs to the west-
southwest Saturday morning in response to the approaching upper
wave.Wind speeds diminish enough to support patchy MVFR fog late
tonight in mountain valleys and in locations where there was
rain Friday afternoon. Confidence was too low on the occurrence
of fog at KLWB and KBCB to include in the TAFs at this time.

Average confidence on ceiling, visibility, wind.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Some upslope MVFR clouds will remain at KLWB and KBLF until
Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
under dry, high pressure.

Precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities return to
the region on Tuesday and Wednesday due to a low pressure
system approaching from the central United States.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG