Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221925 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 325 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CLOSES OFF...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP AND SEND SOME CIRRUS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON DENSITY OF THE CIRRUS...BUT THINK THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BIG ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS...AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND SKY IN THE WEST TO BE CLEAR. THINK TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER WITH MOST STAYING ABOVE 37F. PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS APPEARS POSSIBLE SO HIGHLIGHT BATH AND GREENBRIER IN THE HWO FOR PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY BUT EVENING SHIFT CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TRENDS IN TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY IN CASE THREAT OF MORE FROST INCREASES. NONETHELESS THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE MAY...WITH UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S-50 EAST. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...AND MAINLY KEEPING A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGH WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY... STILL LOOKING DRY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN TERMS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS WEST FROM THE EAST FLOW AROUND THE WEDGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND THE 12Z NAM IS COMING INTO THIS TREND AS WELL...WITH THE GFS STILL DRIER. THINK THE DRY LOW LVLS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP BUT LATE WED NIGHT-THU SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE NE/MID ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT/LOW TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. THE WEDGE IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY...THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...THEN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S WHERE ITS CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW VA CORRIDOR HEADING WEST OF MARION AND TAZEWELL. LOWS WILL ALSO MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL COOL WED MORNING WITH LOWER 40S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING INTO CANADA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EURO IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SAT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR PRECIP THIS FAR INLAND. BUT WOULD LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE CAD-LIKE EFFECTS FROM A VERY SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH RETARDS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS COASTAL SYSTEM WELL INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS MUCH LESS DEVELOPED WITH ANY COASTAL SYSTEM WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND. ELECTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WITH MORE SUN. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY 70S AND 50S FOR HIGHS/LOWS. BOTH GFS/EURO SHOW SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRIDS SHOWING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM SW TO NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY... WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CALMING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING ON AT BLF...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COOL AIR PASSES OVER THE MUCH WARMER WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT LWB AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BCB FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT AROUND DAWN. BY 14Z TUESDAY ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR AND WILL STAY AT THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM A W/NW DIRECTION TODAY TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING FROM THE GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...AMS/CF/RAB

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