Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRNK 200433
Area Forecast Discussion...RESENT
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1133 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
High pressure will build over the region tonight and control
our weather pattern through at least Tuesday. A weak cold front
will cross the area Tuesday night and exit the region on
Wednesday. A warm front will move north through the region
Thursday into Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 945 PM EST Sunday...
Losing cloud cover over the western slopes of Southeast WV, but
as we head through the overnight some of the high-res models
start to feed some low lvl moisture back down toward southern
WV. Will keep it less cloudy than the nam, but still should see
some sct to bkn cloud cover at times early overnight. The
forecast is pretty much on track with lows in the mid to upper
30s west to lower to mid 40s east.
Previous valid discussion...
Winds will be light and variable overnight.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s to near 40 across the
mountains with around 40 to lower 40s across the Piedmont. The
highest ridge tops will be a little milder than their surrounding
valleys thanks to warmer air working its way into the area aloft
above the nocturnal inversion.
On Washington`s Birthday, an upper ridge of high pressure will move
eastward from the Tennessee Valley to over the western portion of
the forecast area. At the surface, the southern axis of a ridge of
high pressure will nose south along the lee of the Appalachians by
the afternoon. With building heights, and at worse filtered sunshine
through advancing thin cirrus clouds, temperatures will trend milder
than those realized today, especially in the west where cloud cover
will be significantly less.
High temperatures will range from the mid 60 to near 70 across the
mountains with lower 70s across the Piedmont. A couple locations may
reach or be very close to setting record high temperature records
tomorrow. Please see the CLIMATE portion of this discussion for
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Sunday...
Models continue to advertise long wave upper ridge moving east and
offshore with a weak short wave in the northern stream arriving in
the eastern United States by Tuesday night. Jet support is not very
impressive Tuesday and Tuesday night with much of the upper
diffluence remaining over the Ohio Valley and north. Monday evening
western valleys along with the foothills and piedmont will decouple
early. Then as the surface and 850MB high moves of the coast wind
pick up from the west-southwest so expecting temperatures to rise on
the western ridges overnight.
Axis of deeper moisture crosses the from West Virginia into North
Carolina between 00Z/7pm Tuesday night and 12Z/7AM Wednesday
morning. Will be slowing down arrival of precipitation based on this
timing. Have also trimmed probability of precipitation behind the
front on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...
Per WPC, not much weight put on the GFS, especially Friday through
Sunday, as it is faster with most of the synoptic scale features
than much of the other guidance. Timing of the cold frontal passage
still similar with the front coming through Saturday morning.
00Z ECMWF had colder air behind the front just brushing through the
Mid Atlantic region, which was not nearly as cold and as far a push
south as previous runs. High temperatures will still drop about 10
degrees but coldest air will start moderating after Sunday morning. A
low level jet and cold air advection will result in strong gusty
winds behind the front into Sunday morning.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1124 PM EST Sunday...
Looking at potential fog and/or low cigs at BLF and at times
LWB. As of 0420z, lower cigs were eroding to the northwest of
LWB. However, models trying to infringe into BLF/LWB again by
09z some sct/bkn mvfr to ifr cigs. At the same time IFR vsbys
had developed over BKW. Profile soundings suggest that fog will
be possible at BLF/LWB but with lack of wet ground and greenup,
confidence is not that high, but with models insisting on lower
vsbys especially in BLF will keep a tempo there for the 10-12z
Further east will be VFR.
The low clouds/fog is expected to go away by 12-14z, with VFR
expected through the end of this taf period.
Low confidence in cigs/vsbys at LWB/BLF and high elsewhere,
through 14z Monday, but high thereafter at all sites.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
VFR into Tuesday morning. Moderate to high confidence of patchy
MVFR conditions across the mountains Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. East of the Blue
Ridge, mainly VFR conditions will prevail.
Thursday into Thursday night, moderate confidence of patchy
light rain returning to the area, with ceiling and visibilities
remaining mainly VFR. Some patchy MVFR is possible.
Friday, moderate to high confidence of precipitation trending
more showery, as low level jet increases in advance of a strong
cold front. Expect a mix of MVFR and low end VFR ceilings and
mainly VFR visibilities with isolated, brief sub-VFR
visibilities under heavier showers. Surface wind gusts of 20 to
30 kts possible across the higher terrain. Showers may linger in
the western mountains Saturday morning. Drier weather will
prevail for much of the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EST Sunday...
Record High Temperatures and Year of Occurrence
Blacksburg, VA..68 in 1984
Bluefield, WV...67 in 1986
Danville, VA....74 in 1971
Lynchburg, VA...76 in 1930
Roanoke, VA.....75 in 1939