Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221946 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 346 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY... COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY JUMP TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER ISOLATED SHRA BANDS WEST INCLUDING UPSLOPE -SHRA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTRW MAIN CONCERN WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD EXIT THE SE AROUND PACKAGE RELEASE TIME...WITH HIGH POPS QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO DRYING AS DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE BAND OF SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY AROUND 40 KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN MIXING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN. OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY AIR. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON... AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY... BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG MIXING WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PC NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...JH/KK/PC FIRE WEATHER...JH

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