Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290222 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1022 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over or near the region for the next several days. Disturbances moving along this boundary will allow for periodic rounds of showers and storms. Hot and humid conditions will continue into at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday... Extended WW419 until midnight for areas along and just east of Blue Ridge. Strong to occasionally severe storms continue vcnty of Roanoke-Lynchburg-Rocky Mount areas. CAPE remains high (MLCAPE of 2000 j/kg) over the foothills and piedmont, so as the outflow from these storms interacts with this airmass, strong cores still possible. That said, loss of daytime heating should result in decreasing intensity, but still concerned that overall activity will persist well into the overnight with possible training of lingering thunderstorm cells inof tail end of vorticity and lingering dynamics aloft. Since this training does not appear that it will impact the previous Flash Flood Watch area (WV), the watch has been dropped. If training of cells does develop, it may be closer to a RIC-LYH-MTV line where existing outflow boundary becomes stuck between stronger westerlies to the north and the upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. On Friday, much of the region will see a break in the precipitation activity through the morning hours. We cannot rule out isolated showers or storms across the west. By the afternoon, our next approaching disturbance, along with daytime heating, will help prompt additional shower and thunderstorm development. Coverage is not expected to be as great as that anticipated this evening. The best coverage will be in the west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to the upper 60s across the mountains and around 70 to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Highs tomorrow are forecast to be just slightly lower than those realized today. Readings around 80 to the mid 80s are forecast for the mountains with upper 80s to lower 90s across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... Frontal boundary will stay just north of us Friday night with spoke of upper energy moving east Friday evening. Timing of impulses is problematic but seems next best wave works toward the PA/OH border Saturday afternoon which may slowly nudge front southward. Appears best threat of showers and storms will be focused from far Southwest Virginia into SE WV and north of Highway 460 across Roanoke and Lynchburg north Saturday afternoon with widely scattered further south. Nonetheless kept pops no higher than 50. Temperatures stay elevated at night thanks to high pwats with lows from the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east. Saturday should be at or just above typical late July values of lower to mid 80s west to around 90 east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1150 AM EDT Thursday... Belt of westerlies will be laying across the area Sunday night into Monday, with front situated across the mid-Atlantic. Afterward the upper flow takes on a more NW to SE orientation across our area as ridge builds over the Central Plains. The front weakens but convergence along it to remain through midweek. In addition, the upper pattern favors potential ridge runners, where convective clusters form over the upper midwest and shift southeast over our area. Overall, will keep threat of showers and storms in the forecast all periods but looks like Sunday-Monday have the better chance for measurable rainfall. May see slight nudge downward in temps early but overall humidity levels should stay the same, so no appreciable dry air expected thru Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail across most of the area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are across the region. One cluster is associated with a shortwave trough moving through northern Virginia. Others were entering the region in association with a shortwave trough moving northeast through Tennessee. This feature will reach the western parts of the area towards midnight. Overnight, look for cloud cover to increase across the area with most locations in the MVFR range with areas of IFR in across the mountains. Showers and storms will continue, especially in western and northern parts of the area. Visibilities will be a mix of MVFR and low end VFR with pockets of IFR under the heavier cells. Much of the activity will wane by sunrise Friday, with lingering showers in the west. MVFR ceiling and visibilities will last a few hours after sunrise. By Friday afternoon, all areas are expected to have VFR ceilings. Scattered showers and storms will be possible across mainly western portions of the area. Extended aviation discussion... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... The area will remain in a relatively active period for showers and storms through Tuesday thanks to a persistent, nearly stationary frontal boundary across or near our region. Outside of the precipitation and during the daylight hours, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Within the heavier showers and storms, and during the overnight hours sub-VFR conditions are more likely. && .CLIMATE... Record warm minimum temperatures for July 28 Bluefield WV.....69 in 2010 Danville VA......76 in 1997 Lynchburg VA.....77 in 1930 Roanoke VA.......80 in 1930 Blacksburg VA....68 in 1987 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/PM SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...DS CLIMATE...PM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.