Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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518 FXUS61 KRNK 250615 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 215 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to move off the Virginia and North Carolina coast this weekend. A strong area of low pressure will drift east over the southern plains with a trailing cold south into Texas. A warm front will reside from the Great Lakes region to Lake Erie into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1015 PM EDT Friday... Even though the center of this stable high will continue to move offshore, the western edge will remain over VA-NC-SC into the weekend. Warm moist air will continue to ride over this lingering insitu wedge with only an increase in cloud cover expected tonight, especially along the southern Blue Ridge. Warm air and afternoon mixing may produce some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. Instabilities increase some outside of the influence of the wedge, particularly across southeastern West Virginia. With some orographical lift, a few showers/sprinkles may develop across the mountains during afternoon heating. Cloud cover, mixing on the ridges, and surface dew points in the 40s will limit the drop in temperatures overnight. Only minor changes made to overnight lows based on current temperatures and the latest gridded LAMP guidance. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 PM EDT Friday... Warmer and moist this period. Models seem in agreement on getting the cold front west of the Appalachians Sunday, then weakening it as it crosses over. Still plenty of southwest flow aloft and southerly low level flow to increase moisture convergence over the region. Will see best coverage of showers west of the foothills into WV. Thunder threat depends on the how quick the clouds/rainfall get into the area. By all accounts, seems the thunder threat is going to be reduced some as rainfall happens in the mountains by 8-11am Sunday. Best instability lies across KY and south into the Carolinas/Georgia. Will have chance thunder over WV into the NC mountains/foothills. By Sunday night into Monday we are looking at main lift exiting north, but still residual low level convergence along pre- existing frontal zone and enough moisture to allow for showers to hang around, especially in the mountains. Expect limited sunshine, but with some breaks and warm air advection still looking at highs Monday in the mid to upper 60s higher ridges, with mainly lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Monday night, next upstream shortwave and front approach, so increased pops again after midnight in the southwest, but should see better chances Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 142 PM EDT Friday... Active pattern this period. Upper-level low pressure system will arrive in our region early Tuesday. Dynamics are marginally favorable for thunderstorms, but if line of convection moves in sooner, lack of thermodynamics will limit thunder threat. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s. Wednesday should be dry with upper ridge building again. Thursday, still dry as upper low slowly edges eastward over the southern plains keeping us under warm ridge, although could start see mid/upper level moisture working in from the southwest. High pressure nosing in from the northeast may keep it cooler, so kept highs in the 60s. Friday, the upper low pushes northeast toward the midwest with strong high situated over the mid atlantic coast. Will start seeing warm advection precip arriving late Thursday night with front not moving into the area until later Friday. By then dynamics weaken over the north. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 AM EDT Friday... Expect VFR conditions for all TAF sites this period. High pressure surface and aloft will remain off the coast as a closed low slowly approaches from the west. This will bring increasing clouds as southerly winds bring increasing moisture into the region, but expect any cigs look to remain at or above 4kft. Forcing is largely absent so any significant chance for precipitation will hold off until later Saturday night as the closed low pushes in from the west, though cigs will start trending below VFR by 06Z Sunday. Expect generally light winds though some gusty conditions will affect KLYH and KDAN this afternoon. Extended Aviation Discussion... Moisture continues to increase over the weekend ahead of an upper-level low pressure area moving northeast from the southern plains. No significant precipitation is expected until Sunday when sub- VFR conditions become more of a possibility. Otherwise looking at overall VFR to start the weekend with most lower cigs remaining west of the area until later Sunday at this point. Periods of unsettled weather will continue into the first half of next week as a series of upper-level lows track from west to east across the U.S.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...MBS/AL

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