Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271215 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 715 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY... CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED EAST TOWARD I-85-I-95 IN VA. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS AIMING TO SEND MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SMOKYS THIS MORNING...SNEAKING UP INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER MTNS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE...EXCEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DOWN SOME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY... 1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD OUTBREAK. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY... TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/MBS AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP

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