Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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271 FXUS61 KRNK 302316 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 716 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will drift east passing north of the area overnight into later Sunday. A cold front with this feature will move to the Central Appalachians by Sunday night. Monday into Wednesday the low will be offshore with the front extending into the Carolinas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Saturday... Mesoanalysis this afternoon showing best moisture convergence along a line from near Raleigh north toward the Shenandoah Valley. Radar showing scattered showers and storms across the Blue Ridge from the NC foothills northeast toward Amherst and more isolated west. As we head into the evening, models are favoring the piedmont with more coverage which is in step with sfc analysis. Still looking at high chance pops north and northeast to lower in the south and southwest. There is some upper level energy back over middle TN this afternoon that slowly moves east toward the mountains late tonight. So for now will have some break in the showers and storms after midnight then increase pops from the southwest toward morning though the coverage may lessen given time of day being unfavorable. Sunday, the main belt of westerlies stays over the northern CWA with a lee trough developing at the sfc over the Piedmont. Nothing really to latch onto but watching upper impulses and timing them. Models are favoring a better threat of storms along/near the Blue Ridge Sunday afternoon spreading east to southeast to the piedmont. Will have pops in the high chance to low likely range by late afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s west to lower 70s east, then rise to the lower 80s west for highs Sunday to around 90 east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... as of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Low amplitude trough will continue to affect the eastern CONUS from the Great Lakes into New England over the next few days. Several spokes of short-wave energy will be rotating through this trough in a fairly chaotic fashion with various model solutions as to strength and timing. Models agree that an associated frontal boundary will be dropping southeast across the forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Not expecting much in the way of sensible weather with this feature but may become a focus for showers and thunderstorms later in the day Monday as heating/destabilization takes place with the best chances for convection focused across the southern sections of the CWA. Slightly drier and cooler air will filter southward behind this front with highs Monday about normal for the first day of August. Tuesday looks to be mostly dry as the front is to our south and high pressure over located over the northern mid-Atlantic will provide weak northerly flow at the surface. Still maintained slight chance pops with diurnal heating cycle but not expecting much activity. Highs again near early August climo although slightly drier air should make it a tad more pleasant. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Saturday... Surface high will drift slowly northeast Wed-Thu as upper heights begin to rise again. The boundary over the Carolinas will more or less undergo frontolysis by Thursday leaving most of the mid- Atlantic region back in a familiar pattern; daily thunderstorm chances and near seasonable warm and humid conditions. Mesoscale features and subtle short-waves will regulate the favored areas for convection within the diurnal heating cycle unless a stronger short- wave is able to maintain overnight activity but not really possible to pin down anything at this longer range. We remain near the summer climatological maxima for temps but the slow downward trend will commence only a few days after this extended forecast period ends. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 PM EDT Saturday... Widely scattered shra/tsra look to persist into this evening with best coverage mainly north and east of the taf locations. Since still cant rule out an isolated shower or storm popping up in the next hour or two, maintained a vicinity mention at most spots until a while after loss of heating. Some added showers may move into the west or persist across the far northeast sections into the overnight but too uncertain to include any mention after better instability wanes. Otherwise looking at fog potential at most sites, but more likely KLWB/KBCB where IFR vsbys to LIFR are expected. After fog/stratus burns off 14z/10am Sunday, looking at VFR into midday although some lingering mid deck and isolated showers possible, with more storms developing around or after 18z/2pm. Coverage looks a bit more widespread with possible development over the mountains just ahead of the front early on, with progression east of coverage into the eastern lee trough later in the afternoon. However given uncertainty will basically include a VCTS or VCSH Sunday afternoon at most locations at this point. Convection should again fade out Sunday evening with more widespread fog/stratus and sub-VFR likely after midnight espcly where earlier showers occurred. Extended aviation discussion... The weak cold front will sag through the region later Monday before stalling just south of the area into midweek. This should briefly push deeper moisture to the south to start the week with mainly isolated convection Monday and perhaps mainly south/east of the taf sites Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture will return north by Thursday ahead of the next upstream cold front with shra/tsra likely increasing Thursday afternoon. Thus VFR conditions are expected for most of the time, with the exception being temporary sub-VFR conditions under any shower or thunderstorm, and during the night with patchy fog and stratus over parts of the region. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

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