-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 190504
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
104 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 02Z/10PM.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH CLEARING AND HIGH ENOUGH DEW POINTS TO ADD MORE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LATEST WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT AND IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE ALIGNED THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND KEPT A LOW
CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.

THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT THE LIGHT POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. PLAYED HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO COOLER MOS VALUES FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT INCREASES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A BROAD EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...AND A DRY MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND...LOOKING AT MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...NOT TOO HOT...NOT TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...850 TEMPS
CREEPING TOWARD +2OC FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 80SF...TESTING 90F DEGREES FOR
THE URBAN AREAS. NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS...SO KEPT ANY PRECIP
THREAT MAINLY DIURNAL AND PRIMARILY TARGETED TO THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE HAS EXITED THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SECONDARY COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF REGION THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FEW REMAINING SHRA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO FADE
UPON APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SO EXPECTING OVERALL LACK OF PRECIP
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HOWEVER FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND OUT EAST ESPCLY AROUND
KDAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG WITH KROA ONLY SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR LATE.

EXPECT LOW CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH HEATING
WED MORNING BEFORE THE FLOW SLOWLY TURNS MORE SE ALLOWING BKN 4-6K
FT CU CIGS TO REDEVELOP ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. EASTERN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLYH/KDAN MAY SEE LOW CIGS/VSBYS HANG ON LONGER
UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW. LATEST MODELS THEN SUGGEST SOME LATE DAY
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL MAINLY KROA/KBCB SO INCLUDING A VCTS THERE.
OTRW LEAVING OUT PRECIP MENTION GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE ELSW.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR WITH MOST OF THIS
COVERAGE LIKELY ENDING UP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING
LATER WED NIGHT. ADDED FOG THEN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY
BEYOND THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD SO WONT INCLUDE MENTION.

FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WITH LOCALLY
BRIEF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS
BR...LOCALLY IFR FG...ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTRW
OVERALL VFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE/AFTER ANY RIDGE
ORIENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JC/JH/KK