Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271527 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1127 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COAST...THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1125 AM EDT FRIDAY... DECREASED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON... SHAPING CLOSER TO LAV GUIDANCE. MODIFIED POPS WITH WSR-88D IMAGES AND LATEST TRENDS. ADJUSTED WEATHER WITH CURRENT OBS AND LEANED TOWARDS BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW AND HRRR. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY... COLD FRONT WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SNOW WAS MIXING IN AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS MORNING. LIGHT COATING OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS. NO EXPECTING ANY ROAD OR TRAVEL ISSUES. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND RADAR TRENDS. THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY TAKE TO TONIGHT TO END IN THE EAST...WHILE UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCE BY SHORTWAVE CROSS THE AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING... AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY... COLD FRONT HAD EXITED SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3AM. BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WAS REPORTED WEST OF A HOT SPRINGS TO RICHLANDS LINE. LARGE SCALE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL DIG OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS 850 TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COLDER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. USED NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TODAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASY TODAY WITH A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AFTER 2PM/18Z. IT WILL TAKE A UNTIL SATURDAY TO COMPLETELY END THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTREME EAST. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROLONG THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THE DOWNSLOPING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. HOWEVER THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE DECEIVING AS BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO MID 40S EAST TO MAKE FOR QUITE A CHILLY DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH READINGS BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WE WILL GET INTO SOME WARMER RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS WILL RECOVER A GOOD BIT FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST SOME WET FLAKES AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. IT ALSO LOOKS BLUSTERY AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ENERGIZED THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE EURO OFFERS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION TIMING THE FRONT AND BRINGS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH ON MONDAY WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS FASTER. LACKING A GOOD CONSENSUS WILL KEEP SOLID CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO SORT THEMSELVES OUT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY... LARGE SCALE PATTERN KEEPS SOME CLIPPER ENERGY HEADING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY OR TUES NIGHT...BUT THIS COULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS WHAT CURRENT ECWMF SOLUTION SUGGESTS...AND THERE IS A TREND TO FLATTEN THE PATTERN A BIT SO EVEN THE WETTER GFS MAY NOT BRING US MUCH OF ANYTHING...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY DO SO ONLY ON WESTERN SLOPES. AFTER THAT NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES BY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH BETTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TAP OF SOME GULF MOISTURE AS MODELS SHOWING SOME ATTEMPT TO PHASE A SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE WITH YET ANOTHER COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THE GFS IS OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY GIVEN A LOT OF POTENTIALLY SPURIOUS CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLIER WEDNESDAY...SO ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND NOT AS LIKELY TO SPREAD PRECIP EAST. OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS BEING 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS...AND WITH WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TOWARD OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PRECIP TYPE ISSUES...NOR DOES IT LOOK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE OF GENERATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN EITHER A WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE IF GOING MORE WITH GFS...OR A VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TAP IF GOING MORE WITH ECMWF. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. COLDER AIR HAD ADVANCED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT KBCB AND KROA BEFORE 18Z/2PM. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 4PM/20Z. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN ENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...BUT WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD POCKET OF AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS IN THE EAST UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WESTERN SLOPE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY... RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29: ROANOKE......19 IN 1982 BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001 LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982 DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966 BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982 LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...AMS CLIMATE...AMS/SK

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