Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010719 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 319 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...KEEPING US IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 223 AM EDT TUESDAY... RIDGING BOTH SURFACE/ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY TIED TO OROGRAPHICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OUT EAST AND WEAK NW TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WEST. MODELS ALSO INDICATED POCKETS OF HIGHER SURFACE-85H THETA-E OVER THE WEST/SW AND IN THE FAR NW LATER ON. HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS REMAIN WITH AN OVERALL DISORGANIZED SHOTGUN PATTERN TO SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING AND LACK OF MUCH CAP ALOFT. THEREFORE RUNNING WITH OVERALL SLIGHT POPS MAINLY MOUNTAINS WITH RIBBONS OF MORE CHANCE NATURE COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES IN A FEW SPOTS. WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE TO START SEPTEMBER GIVEN A BIT MORE SUN THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND LIGHT FLOW. THIS COULD PUSH HIGHS ABOVE 90 SE AND WELL INTO THE 80S ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WEAK NW FLOW MAY TAKE A FEW SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING BUT GIVEN LACK OF SUPPORT THINK MOST ABOUT GONE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE OPENING UPPER WAVE SLIPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND HELPS LOWER 5H HEIGHTS UNDER STRONG SURFACE RIDGING. THIS SYSTEM COULD SPARK A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS MAINLY NW LATE BUT GIVEN LACK OF MUCH LIFT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING CUT BACK TO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY NW. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE MAY BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP LOW TEMPS UP A BIT MORE SO APPEARS MOSTLY UNIFORM MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... MODELS WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURES WILL HELP RE-ENFORCE A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW JERSEY TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY 850 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH THE LACK OF ANY FORCING ON THURSDAY...BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH RETURN BACK TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING TERRAIN ENHANCED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEW POINTS WILL BE WELL INTO 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS MILD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS...PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. SO DESPITE THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF IS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY GET INTO THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY... SKIES MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW SPOTS/VALLEYS WITH STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE REGION IN SPOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE STRATUS TO STAY TO THE EAST WHILE STILL EXPECTING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS. THUS KEEPING THE GOING SCENARIO OF SEEING LIFR/IFR AT KBCB/KLWB BY DAYBREAK AND SPOTTY MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE EAST. FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TAKE SHAPE BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS KEPT VCSH AT KBLF/KLWB WITH BKN VFR CIGS AT 4-6KFT. MAY SEE SOME BROKEN VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT KEEPING LOCATIONS AROUND KBCB/KROA DRY FOR NOW. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY SLIDE MORE MVFR CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY... THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/MBS/NF/WP EQUIPMENT...

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