Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 150711 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 311 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic region tonight and cover much of the eastern United States through Sunday. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. A gradually warming trend to slightly above normal temperatures is expected through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 310 AM EDT Friday... High pressure has nudged in from the west and allowed for the development of patchy dense fog across much of the region. Expect the fog to persist before gradually dissipating after sunrise. Expect a little sun after the fog burns off, but short wave energy undercutting a weak upper level ridge will combine with orographic affects to bring just a slight chance for a shower to the southern Blue Ridge into the mountains of NC and also for the Alleghany Highlands. Expect coverage to be quite sparse. Any showers will fade away early this evening, leaving us with conditions favoring a repeat performance of overnight fog. Highs today will be in the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with low/mid 70s to the west. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s est to low/mid 50s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure remain over much of the eastern United States through Sunday. Saturday night and Sunday surface and low level wind turn to the northeast with slightly increasing winds speeds between the high and Tropical Storm Jose. Expecting broad upper ridging over the eastern United States Friday night through Sunday with 850MB temperatures gradually warming from around +12 to +16. Similar weather pattern continues through Sunday with little to trigger any precipitation. Guidance reasonable for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... This portion of the forecast will be characterized by limited chances of precipitation and little deviation of temperatures from day to day, with these readings averaging five to eight degrees above normal. The best, perhaps only, chance of precipitation during this timeframe will be on Monday. We will be watching a cold front approach the area from the west. While guidance is fairly uniform with this feature reaching the area, it is also fairly uniform with our area within a subsidence zone, on the northwest side of Hurricane Jose, as it potentially tracks north, east of the east coast of the U.S. So what precipitation the front brings with it will be squelched by first limited moisture, and increasing local subsidence. The forecast will reflect isolated showers through the day, with isolated showers and storms in the afternoon, with the focus across the mountains. Sunday night through early Thursday, both surface high pressure, and a building ridge aloft will minimize precipitation chances, and provide for more sun than clouds. Thursday, we will be watching another cold front approach from the west. Guidance among the models is not as uniform with this feature as it is with the Monday feature. Will allow for isolated coverage across the mountains for showers, but confidence is lower than that of Monday. During the period, low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s across the mountains and around 60 to the lower 60s across the Piedmont. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s across the mountains with readings around 80 to the lower 80s across the Piedmont. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Friday... Expect IFR conditions to develop at TAF sites west of the Blue Ridge as radiational fog/stratus become established through daybreak. Conditions will become VFR for all sites by mid morning, but short wave energy undercutting a weak upper level ridge will combine with orographic affects to bring just a slight chance for a shower to the southern Blue Ridge into the mountains of NC and also for the Alleghany Highlands. With sparse coverage expected will keep all TAFs VFR/dry through the end of the valid period. Winds will be light through the period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Some MVFR showers are possible on Saturday with another short wave. The chance of precipitation remains low for Sunday and Monday. Expect diurnal isolated showers and thunderstorms across the terrain. Aside from valley fog in the early morning, conditions overall should be VFR. Tuesday may feature some isolated MVFR showers in the mountains. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MBS/AL

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