Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250701 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 301 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the coast will bring one more day of fair weather and mild temperatures to the region today. However, a series of low pressure systems will move out of the Mississippi valley for the second half of the weekend and into the first part of next week. This will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area through Tuesday, though temperatures will remain well above normal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure surface and aloft will remain off the coast as a closed low slowly approaches from the west. This will bring increasing clouds as southerly winds bring increasing moisture into the region. Forcing is largely absent so any significant chance for precipitation will hold off until later Saturday night. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs today in the mid/upper 70s east of the Blue Ridge, lower 70s to the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 PM EDT Friday... Warmer and moist this period. Models seem in agreement on getting the cold front west of the Appalachians Sunday, then weakening it as it crosses over. Still plenty of southwest flow aloft and southerly low level flow to increase moisture convergence over the region. Will see best coverage of showers west of the foothills into WV. Thunder threat depends on the how quick the clouds/rainfall get into the area. By all accounts, seems the thunder threat is going to be reduced some as rainfall happens in the mountains by 8-11am Sunday. Best instability lies across KY and south into the Carolinas/Georgia. Will have chance thunder over WV into the NC mountains/foothills. By Sunday night into Monday we are looking at main lift exiting north, but still residual low level convergence along pre- existing frontal zone and enough moisture to allow for showers to hang around, especially in the mountains. Expect limited sunshine, but with some breaks and warm air advection still looking at highs Monday in the mid to upper 60s higher ridges, with mainly lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Monday night, next upstream shortwave and front approach, so increased pops again after midnight in the southwest, but should see better chances Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 142 PM EDT Friday... Active pattern this period. Upper-level low pressure system will arrive in our region early Tuesday. Dynamics are marginally favorable for thunderstorms, but if line of convection moves in sooner, lack of thermodynamics will limit thunder threat. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s. Wednesday should be dry with upper ridge building again. Thursday, still dry as upper low slowly edges eastward over the southern plains keeping us under warm ridge, although could start see mid/upper level moisture working in from the southwest. High pressure nosing in from the northeast may keep it cooler, so kept highs in the 60s. Friday, the upper low pushes northeast toward the midwest with strong high situated over the mid atlantic coast. Will start seeing warm advection precip arriving late Thursday night with front not moving into the area until later Friday. By then dynamics weaken over the north. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Friday... Expect VFR conditions for all TAF sites this period. High pressure surface and aloft will remain off the coast as a closed low slowly approaches from the west. This will bring increasing clouds as southerly winds bring increasing moisture into the region, but expect any cigs look to remain at or above 4kft. Forcing is largely absent so any significant chance for precipitation will hold off until later Saturday night as the closed low pushes in from the west, though cigs will start trending below VFR by 06Z Sunday. Expect generally light winds though some gusty conditions will affect KLYH and KDAN this afternoon. Extended Aviation Discussion... Moisture continues to increase over the weekend ahead of an upper-level low pressure area moving northeast from the southern plains. No significant precipitation is expected until Sunday when sub- VFR conditions become more of a possibility. Otherwise looking at overall VFR to start the weekend with most lower cigs remaining west of the area until later Sunday at this point. Periods of unsettled weather will continue into the first half of next week as a series of upper-level lows track from west to east across the U.S. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...MBS/AL

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