Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 131918 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 218 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring abundant clouds and some fog to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region as it moves into New England and wedges down east of the mountains. After fair weather Wednesday, a weak cold front will bring a chance of showers west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday night and Thursday. Then after a quiet end to the workweek, a strong cold front will bring showers along with very windy conditions to the area for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EST Monday... High pressure moving into New England will wedge down east of the mountains and remain in control of our weather through Tuesday. Abundant low level moisture is locked in under the subsidence inversion and is only slowly able to mix out east of the Blue Ridge where self-destructive sunshine is redeveloping clouds. Clouds remain solidly in place west of the Ridge and are expected to remain entrenched through late Tuesday morning. Some light upslope sprinkles are still possible west of the Blue Ridge. After dark expect cooling in the boundary layer to reinforce/redevelop clouds, along with some patchy fog developing. West of the Blue Ridge where best moisture is running up the mountains believe there will be some patchy drizzle as well, along with the possibility of some icing in freezing drizzle or freezing fog. Confidence in any icing is low and if it were to occur would likely be so light as to avoid any significant impacts. Thus, will include some patchy freezing drizzle mainly at the higher elevations of western Greenbrier but will not issue any advisory or statement due to uncertainty/very light amounts. Will reassess the situation as it evolves overnight. Shallow moisture looks to be waning tomorrow so expect clouds to slowly mix out in time to see some late day rays of sun. Expect lows tonight around 40 degrees east of the Blue Ridge with low/mid 30s to the west. Highs Tuesday will be in the middle 50s east to mid/upper 40s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 126 PM EST Monday... An upper level trough axis center over our area Tuesday afternoon will move east into the Atlantic ocean Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will range from the upper 20s in the mountains to the mid 30s along the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. A cold front in the Ohio Valley will approach our area Wednesday and push into the western mountains by Wednesday evening. The timing of the front and its associated precipitation is a little slower on 12z model run. High temperatures Wednesday will vary from the mid 40s in the west to the mid 50s in the east. As the upper trough moves by to our north Wednesday night in Thursday morning, the front will stall to our south near the North Carolina and South Carolina border. Low temperatures will generally be from the upper 30s in the northwest mountains of Greenbrier county to the lower 40s in the piedmont. On Thursday, the forecast area will be sandwiched between the midweek upper trough with stalled weak front expected to our south and weak high pressure evident across the East. Under partly to mostly sunny conditions, temperatures will be seasonable with high readings from the lower 40s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Thursday night will be colder than Wednesday night with values from the upper 20s in the coldest northwest valleys to the mid 30s in the piedmont. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 126 PM EST Monday... As a shortwave exits towards Nova Scotia early Friday,a powerful cyclone will develop and emerge out of the Mississippi Valley by Friday afternoon. Rapid intensification of this system is expected while moving into the Great Lakes region this weekend with a secondary area of low pressure developing off the New England coast by late Saturday. A warm front will lift north across our area Friday evening into Friday night, than a strong cold front will sweep east across our region Friday night into Saturday. The timing of the front remains faster on the GFS compared to ECMWF. Utilized an ensemble blend for timing of the boundary. The cold front could arrive in the form of a narrow strongly forced line of showers or thunderstorms. The actual evolution will determine how much instability we will have to work with. The GFS/Canadian/ECMWF are depicting a deep upper trough across the east/northeast U.S. into the first half of next week. This will lead to below to well below normal temperatures in the extended periods with lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s and 40s west to around 50 in the Piedmont. Precipitation will be below normal with a predominate drier northwest flow aloft. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front with strong CAA/significant pressure rises, and deep low pressure developing across the Northeast. For areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, appears solidly in the Wind Advisory category, with the potential for a High Wind Warning at the higher elevations in northwest NC into southwest VA. Will highlight the wind potential in the HWO. There remains plenty of time to work out the details with this strong cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EST Monday... High pressure moving into New England will wedge down east of the mountains and remain in control of our weather through Tuesday. Abundant low level moisture is locked in under the subsidence inversion and is only slowly able to mix out east of the Blue Ridge. No such luck west of the Ridge where IFR/LIFR conditions will remain entrenched through late Tuesday morning. Believe diurnal heating may temporarily bump cigs up to MVFR but with the overall flavor not changing much do not feel adding an upward tempo group will add value to the TAFs so will leave out. After dark expect cooling in the boundary layer to help cigs lower a bit with clouds reforming in the east. There will also be some patchy fog around. West of the Blue Ridge where best moisture is running up the mountains believe there will be some patchy drizzle as well and will include this at KBLF. As temps cool some of the highest elevations may experience icing in freezing drizzle or freezing fog, but this is not expected to affect any airfields. Expect a slow improvement all sites through Tuesday morning with a trend to VFR after the TAF valid period. After some early gusts expect winds to generally be light through the period. Extended Discussion... VFR conditions then continue until Wednesday evening, with a cold frontal passage. A period of sub-VFR conditions, brief showers and a west-northwest wind shift appear possible for the overnight period. Possible post-frontal sub-VFR ceilings into Thursday in the western Appalachians, otherwise VFR conditions. VFR then anticipated through Thursday afternoon and evening.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...MBS/AL

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