Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 240819 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 419 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID PART OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY... COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF VA AND INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WV...READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD WAS STILL PRETTY LARGE...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FROST EXPECTED. 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE US ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...YIELDING A NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...TESTING 70 DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID CONUS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE 30-60 PERCENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...INCREASING TO 60 TO 90 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY... A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY. THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE GFS. WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... THROUGH 12Z/8AM FRIDAY. WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD TODAY...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...COURTESY OF A MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM. MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ASIDE FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. && .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PM FIRE WEATHER...PM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.