Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 301045 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 545 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY... SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF 4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR DANVILLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE DRIER GFS/NAEFS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY... THE STRONG ADVERTISED ALBERTA CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...NEAR BCB AND ALREADY THROUGH LWB/BLF. VERY QUICKLY CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED PCPN...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY CHANGE TO SNOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY LOW END VFR CIGS AT THIS HOUR. MODELS NOW DEPICTING A WAVE THAT WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DELAY ITS PROGRESS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FURTHERMORE BRING A WAVE OF -SHRA TO BCB/ROA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED THESE CHANGES TO THE TAFS...SLIGHTLY DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO ROA/LYH/DAN AND ALSO INTRODUCING -SHRA TO BCB/ROA THAT WERE NOT IN THE 00Z TAFS. UPSLOPE -SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS AND IFR-LIFR CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT 14Z WITH JUST FLURRIES OR OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 22Z BLF/LWB/BCB...BECOMING MOSTLY SKC OR JUST SCT ALL SITES AFT 22Z. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW NORTHEAST U.S...30-40KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRI. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EVEN INTO FRI EVENING...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 25KTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFT 02Z. WINDS OVERALL WILL AVERAGE 10KTS LESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014- 016>020-022>024-032>035. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...DS/RAB

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