Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231107 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 707 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR- EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER THROUGH LATE MORNING...WHEN MOISTURE WILL BECOME TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN RIDGES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE. FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY DAWN MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY 14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...KK/NF SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...KK/RAB

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