Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 121051 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 651 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today and Wednesday high pressure over the southeast United States will keep the weather dry over our region. Thursday and Friday a ow pressure system will track from the Rockies to the Ohio Valley, bring showers and thunderstorms to the eastern United States on Friday and Friday night. More precipitation is possible on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday... Key message: - Dry weather and lighter wind today Surface high pressure was centered over the Gulf coast region this morning. This high will gradually move east today and tonight. Surface and low level winds will be mainly from the northwest then west. Expecting good mixing which will lead to surface dew points mainly in the 20s. Along with the dry air, almost full sunshine today will support warmer temperatures than on Monday. Will have highs closer to warmest guidance. Mid and high clouds arrive tonight. Will stay close to NBM guidance for the lows, with the exception of typically colder river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Temperatures trending warmer, to above normal values. 2. Dry weather for mid week, next chance for rain arrives Friday. Temperatures will continue on a warming trend through Thursday, as 500mb heights increase over the area during this forecast period. Surface high pressure will remain situated over much of the southeastern US and Mid Atlantic, but slowly shifts eastward and offshore by midweek. This high will keep the weather dry and quiet for the area for Wednesday and Thursday, but an upper wave crossing the region could bring an increase in mid and high clouds through Wednesday, and possibly scattered light showers to the western mountains Wednesday night. As the high continues to shift farther east Thursday, southwesterly flow will bring warmer and moister air into the area. Probabilities for high temperatures exceeding 75 degrees on Thursday are over 80% and around 65% on Friday in the Virginia Southside and Roanoke Valley. A surface frontal system will develop in the central US during this forecast period, tracking eastward and reaching the central Appalachians by Friday. Rain showers from the associated cold front may reach the western counties in the forecast area as early as Friday morning, though the greater chances look to be Friday evening and night. Higher rainfall amounts will likely be west of the Blue Ridge, as downsloping from the westerly winds will limit the coverage of rain showers in the Piedmont. Probabilities of 24 hour rainfall amounts exceeding a half an inch are 30 to 40% over southeast West Virginia, into far southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms developing with this front, with increasing dewpoints and instability. However, timing of the frontal passage, late Friday night into Saturday morning, and progressiveness of the front will help to limit thunderstorm chances. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Rain chances decrease after Saturday morning, return for Sunday. 2. Temperatures trend cooler for the period, but still above normal through the weekend. The cold front from Friday will be to the southeast of the area by Saturday morning, thus rain showers will be diminishing across the area for the start of this forecast period. Some showers may linger in the far western mountains of southeast West Virginia, but even those will taper off by later Saturday as drier air pushes in behind the front. This cold front will stall across the southeastern US, while another area of low pressure develops and tracks northeastward along it. Also during this forecast period, an upper trough will move across southern Canada and deepen as it approaches the Great Lakes region. The trailing cold front from the surface low associated with this upper trough will approach the central Appalachians by Sunday, and will bring another round of rain showers to the area. However, the greater moisture will be more over the southeastern US, along the other frontal boundary, so confidence is low in coverage of showers on Sunday into Monday. Colder air follows the passage of the northern stream system, so could see some snow showers mixing into the lingering showers over the western slopes Sunday night into Monday. This will also bring temperatures back towards seasonal normals by the start of the next week, which will feel much colder compared to the unseasonable warmth of the end of this week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR weather through the TAF forecast period. Have added LLWS to the local TAF for this morning due to A 30 to 40 knot jet just above the shallow surface based inversion. The low level jet weakens enough by 16Z/noon to eliminate the potential for any additional shear today. As mixing begins this morning, some higher gusts are expected, mainly in the 15 to 20 knot range. The surface wind will decouple again tonight. Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure with dry VFR conditions expected through Thursday. A front will approach Friday and bring MVFR or lower conditions along with showers and thunderstorms. MVFR clouds showers in the mountains may linger into Saturday morning. Otherwise Saturday will be VFR east of the Blue Ridge.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...AMS/VFJ

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