Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231729 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 129 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide east across the region today, then reside along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Wednesday. The next decent chance of showers, for at least areas west of the Blue Ridge, will be Friday when a cold front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 942 AM EDT Tuesday... Temperatures running warmer than earlier forecast but high temps should still range from the upper 70s/lower 80s west to mid 80s east. 12z RNK sounding showed moisture around 8h level and satellite confirms this. Models showing scattered to broken cumulus this afternoon, so still enough sunshine to provide a warm but less humid day. Surface high pressure will wedge down the Mid Atlantic hanging around through mid week. Clouds will fade in the evening and/or transition into a stratus deck as moisture gets trapped under subsidence inversion tonight. With a slight uptick in dew points tonight, overnight lows will run a few degrees warm than this morning with upper 50s west to lower 60s east. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... High pressure will gradually move east into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday night. Aloft, the upper trough pattern over the region will transition to a zonal flow will increasing geopotential heights. A southerly flow will increase moisture on Wednesday for the potential of isolated showers or thunderstorms in the southwest mountains. It will be another pleasant day Wednesday with high temperatures from the mid 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. Good night to Open your windows Wednesday night with low temperatures from the upper 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east. On Thursday, the high center pushes further out into the Atlantic ocean. Increased low level moisture convergence and weakening cap will produce isolated to scattered coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and just east of the crest of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures on Thursday will be warmer than Wednesday with readings from the the upper 70s in the mountains to the upper 80s in the Piedmont. Any convection should dissipate quickly around or after sunset. Thursday night, a cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest. Its influence may allow for some late night showers to arrive across far western portions of the area. Low temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will generally be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... During this portion of the forecast we will transition back into a more active pattern for daily chances of showers and storms. There will be the potential for both diurnal and differential heating pop- up showers and storms primarily across the mountains. We will also have periodic shortwave troughs progress across the area and add to the potential for additional, more organized precipitation. Guidances varies as to the timing and magnitude of these disturbances. However, the general consensus offers a solution that the Sunday into Monday time frame will be when these will become more frequent. The far eastern sections of the forecast area will see the least amount of coverage. Temperatures on Friday will average five to ten degrees above normal. Each day slightly cooler conditions are expected so that readings by Monday will be around, or slightly higher than normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 127 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure will drift slowly east across the region into tonight before sliding to the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday. This will keep widespread VFR conditions in place under scattered to broken afternoon cumulus/stratocumulus each day. The only exception will be early morning fog mainly at western TAF sites, especially KLWB and possibly BCB where MVFR/IFR will be possible between 09z- 12z. Extended aviation discussion... Thursday a bit more moisture will work its way north into western parts of the area on the west side of a departing high pressure. Isolated showers will be possible across the mountains, but for the most part, VFR conditions will still prevail. On Friday, there is a greater chance of showers, and possibly some storms, with the approach of our next cold front. Pockets of MVFR conditions will again occur briefly under the stronger showers or storms. The front lingers in the area during the weekend keeping enough moisture for diurnal mountain showers and storms when periods of MVFR could occur.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...RCS/WP

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